Transcript Lecture2

Lecture 02:當前全球環境危機
(cont.)
http://www.kyoto-seika.ac.jp/kicc/index_e.html
May rise by 6.4C (IPCC AR4 summary report (2007.2.2 Paris)
Variability
vs.
Change
Greenhouse Gases
Greenhouse gases are gases that trap heat in
the Earth’s atmosphere. The main one is carbon
dioxide (CO2), and burning fossil fuel has added
to natural emissions. The Kyoto protocol also
covers methane (CH4), much of which comes
from agriculture and waste dumps, and nitrous
oxide (N2O), mostly a result of fertilizer use.
Three industrial gases used in various
applications, such as refrigerants, heat
conductors and insulators, are also included.
They are hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs),
perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and sulphur
hexafluoride (SF6).
Radiative Forcing
The radiative forcing of the surfacetroposphere system due to the perturbation in
(possibly, a change of solar irradiance) or the
introduction of an agent (say, a change in
greenhouse gas concentrations) is the
change in net (down minus up) irradiance
(solar plus long-wave; in Watt m-2) at the
tropopause after allowing for stratospheric
temperatures to readjust to radiative
equilibrium, but with surface and tropospheric
temperatures and state held fixed at the
unperturbed values.
Human activities
have changed
the composition
of the
atmosphere
since the preindustrial era
Human activities
have changed
the composition
of the
atmosphere
since the preindustrial era
Source: IPCC AR4 wg1 (2007)
Title
Gangotri
Glacier, Northern India
Body text
zghsd
•Receding
since 1780
•Last 25 years,
Gangotri Glacier
has retreated
more than 850
m (2 788 ft)
Title
Hubbard Glacier, Alaska, USA
Body text
•1985 –Hubbard
Glacier
•1986 –Hubbard
Glacier blocks Russell
Fjord
•2002 –Hubbard
Glacier blocks Russell
Fjord again
•2003 – Glacier has
retreated
Title
Hubbard Glacier Advance
Body text
10 Aug 2002
14 Aug 2002
Arctic Sea Ice Extent
Which part is melting faster ?
S.-P. Weng
12
Future Projections of diminishing
Sea Ice Coverage in Arctic Sea
2010-2030
2030-2050
2050-2070
Themes for IPY 2007-08
1. To determine the present environmental status of the polar
regions by quantifying their spatial and temporal variability.
2. To quantify, and understand, past and present environmental
and human change in the polar regions in order to improve
predictions.
3. To advance our understanding of polar - global interactions by
studying teleconnections on all scales.
4. To investigate the unknowns at the frontiers of science in the
polar regions.
5. To use the unique vantage point of the polar regions to develop
and enhance observatories studying the Earth's inner core, the
Earth's magnetic field, geospace, the Sun and beyond.
6. To investigate the cultural, historical, and social processes that
shape the resilience and sustainability of circumpolar human
societies, and to identify their unique contributions to global
S.-P. Weng
cultural diversity and citizenship
15
(from Weather & Climate)
Hurricane Vince was one
of the most unusual
hurricanes ever to develop
in the Atlantic basin,
forming in October 8 during
the 2005 Atlantic hurricane
season.
An unusual C4 Hurricane hit Argentina during 2003
畫眉在北緯1.4度形成，在西北太平洋區內一直保持在北緯2度以南，更吹襲了新加
坡，是有紀錄以來第一個吹襲新加坡的熱帶氣旋，並是太平洋上最接近赤道形成的
熱帶氣旋，以及全球第二最接近赤道生成的熱帶氣旋，僅次於2004年北印度洋的的
旋風Agni的北緯0.7度。
Kyoto Protocol Basics
1. What is the Kyoto Protocol?
It's a pact agreed by government delegates at a 1997 U.N.
conference in Kyoto, Japan, to reduce the amount of greenhouse
gases emitted by developed countries by 5.2 percent of 1990
levels during 2008-2012. A total of 141 nations have ratified the
pact, according to U.N. data.
2. Is it the first agreement of its kind?
Governments originally agreed to tackle climate change at the
1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro. At that meeting, leaders
created the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change,
which set a non-binding goal of stabilizing emissions at 1990
levels by 2000, a goal not met overall. The Kyoto protocol is the
follow-up to that and is the first legally binding global agreement to
cut greenhouse gases.
Kyoto Protocol Basics
3. Is it legally binding?
Kyoto will have legal force for its participants from Feb. 16 after
meeting twin conditions -- backing from at least 55 countries and
support from nations representing at least 55% of developed
countries’ carbon dioxide emissions. It passed the second hurdle
in November 2004 when Russia ratified and now has backing
from nations representing 61.6% of emissions. The United States,
the world’s biggest emitter, has pulled out, saying Kyoto is too
expensive and wrongly omits developing nations.
4. How will it be enforced?
Under a 2001 deal made by environment ministers, if countries
emit more gases than allowed under their targets at the end of
2012, they will be required to make the cuts, and 30% more, in the
second commitment period, which is due to start in 2013. They
rejected the idea of a financial penalty.
Kyoto Protocol Basics
5. Must all cut emissions by 5.2 percent?
No, only 39 countries -- relatively developed ones -- have target
levels for the 2008-12 period, adhering to a principle that richer
countries should take the lead. Each country negotiated different
targets, with Russia aiming for stabilization at 1990 levels and the
European Union taking an eight percent cut.
6. How are supporters doing so far?
Many countries are lagging behind Kyoto targets. Emissions by
Spain and Portugal were 40.5 percent above 1990 levels in 2002.
U.S. emissions were up 13.1 percent. Emissions by ex-communist
bloc states fell most sharply due to the collapse of Soviet-era
industries -- Russian emissions were down 38.5 percent.
Kyoto Protocol Basics
7. How will countries comply?
The European Union set up a new market in January 2005
under which about 12,000 factories and power stations are
given carbon dioxide quotas. If they overshoot they can buy
extra allowances in the market or pay a financial penalty; if
they undershoot they can sell them. Prices in the EU market
are now about 7.2 euros per metric ton.
Kyoto Protocol Basics
8. What if a country misses its target?
The protocol provides for "flexible mechanisms" -- ways for
countries to reach their targets without actually reducing
emissions at home. These include emissions trading -- where
one country buys the right to emit from a country that has
already reduced its emissions sufficiently and has "spare"
emissions reductions. Another is the "clean development
mechanism" where developed countries can earn credits to
offset against their targets by funding clean technologies,
such as solar power, in poorer countries.
Countries can also claim credits for planting trees in the
Third World that soak up CO2 -- so-called carbon "sinks."
京都機制
共同減量（JI）、清潔發展機制（CDM）及排放交易（ET）
共同減量（JI）
工業化國家
經濟轉型國家
排放交易（ET）
京都議定書減量規範之工業化國家（附件一國家）
清潔發展機制（CDM）
開發中國家
（非附件一國家）
植樹造林
工業減
量
住商減量
交通減量
溫室氣體減
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量專案計畫
京都議定書之影響

國際間主要溫室氣體為二氧化碳，且大多來自人為能源
使用（如：燃燒使用煤、油、天然氣等，仍為現今全球
最主要的能源供給來源 ），造成減量之困難。

京都議定書之制訂限制二氧化碳排放，將直接衝擊各國
能源配比與產業結構，影響各國經濟發展，甚至損及國
際競爭力。

京都會議後，可以很清楚地發現國際態勢已由過去的東
西意識形態對抗，轉變成南北對立，已開發國家與開發
中國家之競爭，甚至可稱為富有國家與貧窮國家之戰爭
各國因應溫室氣體增加之作法
附件一國家之作法：
 有半數附件一國家於2000年溫室氣體排放量低於1990年的水準。
 個別國家間排放量變化差別大，從下降66%到增加36% 。
註：台灣1990年能源部門之二氧化碳排放量為113百萬公噸，至2000年已成
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長為218百萬噸，增加幅度約為93％。
各國因應溫室氣體增加之作法（續）
附件一國家因應措施比較：
主要國家2000年各部門CO2排放量所佔比例，主要以能源生產為主。
國家/部門
能源生產
工 業
運 輸
住商及其他
日 本
40
26
22
12
英 國
40
14
25
21
美 國
48
11
30
11
歐 盟
36
18
26
20
加拿大
35
20
28
17
德 國
42
17
21
20
法 國
16
23
37
24
瑞 典
18
23
43
16
澳 洲
57
17
23
3
合 計
100
註：台灣2000年各部門占比：能源生產52.8％、工業27.7％、運輸14.4％、
住商及其他5.1％。
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臺灣因應溫室氣體增加之策略

我國近年來經濟快速發展，屬於新興工業國之一，但由於能源配比
及產業結構之因素，尚無法與工業化國家（如歐盟、美國）相提並
論，我國無法承擔比照工業化國家相同的溫室氣體減量責任。

地球暖化係工業化國歷史累積排放溫室氣體之結果，基於公約「公
平」、「合理」對等之原則，我國認為工業化國應先負起溫室氣體
減量之責任。

我國認為各國應依據公約原則來共同承擔﹔但程度有不同以因應氣
候變遷的責任與能力，促進永續性經濟發展。
36
臺灣因應溫室氣體增加之策略（續）

1992年成立「全球變遷工作小組」，由政務委員擔任召集人。

1994年8月提升為「全球環境變遷政策指導小組」，由政務委員擔任
召集人。

1997年擴編成立跨部會之「行政院國家永續發展委員會」，由副院長
擔任主任委員。委員會下設「大氣保護及能源工作分組」負責「聯合
國氣候變化綱要公約」與「蒙特婁議定書」，由環保署空保處擔任召
集工作 。

1998年召開「全國能源會議」，檢討我國能源及產業相關政策。

2002年6月行政院國家永續發展委員會改組，提昇由行政院院長擔任
主任委員，並成立「國際環保組」，由環保署空保處擔任窗口，負責
相關國際環保業務之推動。

2009年1月全國科技會議，氣候與環境變遷將帶來的衝擊影響是全面
性的 => 1年內制定「環境變遷國家調適政策綱領」 。
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臺灣因應溫室氣體增加之策略（續）
一、我國目前非聯合國會員，缺乏參與管道，造成：
（1）無法正式參與公約協商。
（2）不能以締約國身份參與彈性減量機制（清潔發展機制）及其他合作
管道。
二、我國重要產業（半導體協會與TFT-LCD協會）已經受到國際壓力，必
須簽訂自願減量協定；若不遵循，該產業發展將會受到嚴重衝擊。
三、根據世界銀行評估，我國能源供應結構大多仰賴高碳能源，調整困難
；我國溫室氣體減量成本遠高於大多數工業化國家。
四、各相關部會參與氣候變遷議題之程度不足。
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The United Nations Climate Change Conference in
Bali, Dec 2007 (Bali roadmap)
The Conference, hosted by the Government of Indonesia, took place
at the Bali International Convention Centre and brought together
more than 10,000 participants, including representatives of over 190
countries together with observers from intergovernmental and
nongovernmental organizations and the media. The two week period
included the sessions of the Conference of the Parties to the
UNFCCC, its subsidiary bodies as well as the Meeting of the Parties
to the Kyoto Protocol. A ministerial segment in the second week
concluded the Conference.
The United Nations Framework on Climate Change
Conference in Bali, Dec 2007 (Bali roadmap)
The conference culminated in the adoption of the Bali Roadmap,
which consists of a number of forward-looking decisions that
represent the various tracks that are essential to reaching a secure
climate future. The Bali Roadmap includes the Bali Action Plan,
which charts the course for a new negotiating process designed to
tackle climate change, with the aim of completing this by 2009. It also
includes the AWG-KP (Commitments for Annex | Parties under the
Kyoto Protocol ) negotiations and their 2009 deadline, the launch of
the Adaptation Fund, the scope and content of the Article 9 review of
the Kyoto Protocol, as well as decisions on technology transfer and on
reducing emissions from deforestation.
峇里島路線圖的決議
1.因應氣候變遷的事實，各國將在哥本哈根會議(2009)
定出明確的溫室氣體減量目標
2.成立由全球環境基金（GEF）管理的「調適基金」
（Adaptation Fund）
3.致力降低森林消退後所導致的碳排放（REDD，
Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and
Degradation）
峇里島會議的共識
立即採取行動，否則後果嚴重：海平面上升；洪水
更加頻繁和更難以預料，會出現嚴重的乾旱；世界各地、
特別是非洲和中亞將發生饑荒；地球上將有多達三分之
一的動植物物種滅絕。
Kyoto2: framework for a new Climate Protocol
under the UNFCCC beyond 2012
Aims (GEEPA):
1.global - its scope is global and all countries are included within the
framework
2.economically efficient - using auction and open markets for
optimum allocation of resources
3.equitable - addressing the needs of the poor, and mitigating the
impacts of climate change
4.practical - designed to minimize accounting and compliance
overheads
5.acceptable - by seeking to address the needs and concerns of all
countries
全球環境三大威脅
 地球暖化
→地球熱化
 臭氧層的破壞
 淨化與恢復能力減弱
全球環境危機的最根本原因
對發展無限論的過度自信
人類是地球環境最大的污染源