Transcript A Rotarians Guide – Hard Choices Ahead.

The Path to a Sustainable Low Carbon Future:
A Rotarians Guide - Hard Choices Ahead
Rotary Club of Great Yarmouth
May 31st 2011
Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal
Keith Tovey (杜伟贤) : President Rotary Club of Norwich
District 1080 Environment Officer
District 1080 ComVoc Chair
1
Increasing Occurrence of Drought
2
Increasing Occurrence of Flood
3
Climate Change:
Arctic meltdown 1979 - 2003
‫تغير المناخ‬
‫ اثار على الجليديه القطبيه كاب‬1979 - 2003
• Summer ice coverage of
Arctic Polar Region
• NASA satellite imagery
• ‫الصيف الجليد في القطب‬
‫الشمالي تغطية المنطقة‬
‫القطبيه‬
• ‫ناسا الصور الفضاءيه‬
2003
1979
•20% reduction in 24 years
•20 ٪ ‫ سنوات‬24 ‫تخفيض في‬
Source: Nasa http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html
4
Is Global Warming natural
or man-made?
Natural causes
• Earth’s Orbit
• Sunspot Activity
• Volcanic Eruptions
• Etc.
Reasonable agreement up
to ~ 1960
Man-made causes do not
show particularly good
agreement in early part of
period.
BUT including both manmade and natural gives
good agreement
Temperature changes: Evidence in East Anglia
Temperature rise in East
Anglia over last 50 years
is unequivocal
16
Mean Temperature (oC)
14
12
10
8
• Winter: October – March:
• Summer: April to September
• Compared to 1960 – in 2010,
– 13.1% less heating needed
– And 106% more cooling.
6
4
2
0
1960
summer
1970
1980
winter
1990
annual
2000
2010
Temperature Deviation deg C
0.60
0.40
0.20
below average
above average
Trend Line
0.00
-0.20
-0.40
-0.60
1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
Data to end of Oct 2010
2010 is on track to be 2nd
warmest year (GLOBALLY)
Despite cold in UK –
December worldwide was
1st/2nd hottest ever
Impact of Electricity Generation on Carbon Emissions.
• Approximate Carbon Emission factors during electricity generation
including fuel extraction, fabrication and transport.
Fuel
Approx emission factor
Comments
Coal
Gas
Nuclear
900 – 1000g
Depending on grade and
efficiency of power station
400 – 430g
Assuming CCGT – lower value
for Yarmouth as it is one of most
efficient in Europe
5 – 10g
Depending on reactor type
Renewables
~0
For wind, PV, hydro
Overall UK
~530g
Varies on hour by hour basis
depending on generation mix
Suffolk &
Norfolk (2009)
~83g
Sizewell B, Yarmouth and
existing renewables
• Norfolk and Suffolk is a very low carbon electricity generation zone in UK
• But current accounting procedures do not allow regions to promote this.
• A firm in Norfolk / Suffolk would have only 16% of carbon emissions
from electricity consumption
7
Energy Security is a potentially critical issue for the UK
140
Gas Production and Demand in UK
On 7th/8th December 2010: UK
Production was only 39%: 12%
from storage and 49% from
imports
100
Import
Gap
80
60
Actual UK production
40
Actual UK demand
Projected production
Projected demand
20
0
2000
2004
Prices have
become much
more volatile
since UK is no
longer self
sufficient in
gas.
2008
2012
10
8
6
2016
2020
Wholesale Electricity Prices
12
p/kWh
Billion cubic metres
120
Completion of
Langeled Gas
UK becomes net Line to Norway
importer of gas
4
Oil reaches
$140 a barrel
2
0
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
8
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods
Potential contribution to electricity supply in
2020 and drivers/barriers
0 - 80% (at present 45- Available now (but gas
50%)
is running out)
Gas CCGT
nuclear fission
(long term)
Energy
Review
2002
9th May
2011 (*)
8.0p
[5 - 11]
~2p +
0 - 15% (France 80%) - new inherently safe
(currently 18% and
designs - some
2.5 - 3.5p
falling)
development needed
7.75p
[5.5 - 10]
Installed Capacity (MW)
notisavailable
earliest
Nuclearfusion
New Build assumes
one new station
completeduntil
each2040
year at
after
2020.not until
nuclear
unavailable
2050 for significant impact
14000
12000
New Build ?
[7.5 - 15]p
Available now: Not
Projected
Coal
currently
~40% but viable without Carbon
unlikely
"Clean10000
Coal"
2.5
3.5p
Actual
scheduled
to fall
Capture &
before 2025
-
?
8000
Sequestration
6000
Carbon sequestration either by burying it or using methanolisation to create a new
4000 fuel will not be available at scale required until mid 2020s if then
transport
2000
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
* Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2009
9
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply
in 2020 and drivers/barriers
On Shore Wind
~25% [~15000 x
available now for
3 MW turbines] commercial exploitation
2002
(Gas ~ 2p)
May 2011
(Gas ~ 8.0p) *
~ 2+p
~8.2p
+/- 0.8p
1.5MW Turbine
At peak output provides sufficient electricity for
3000 homes
On average has provided electricity for 700 –
850 homes depending on year
Future prices from
* Renewable Energy Review – 9th May 2011
Climate Change Committee
10
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in
2020 and drivers/barriers
On Shore Wind
~25% [~15000 x
available now for
3 MW turbines] commercial exploitation
Off Shore Wind
some technical
development needed to
reduce costs.
25 - 50%
May 2011
2002
(Gas ~ 2p) (Gas ~ 8.0p) *
~ 2+p
~8.2p
+/- 0.8p
~2.5 - 3p
12.5p +/- 2.5
Climate Change Committee (9th May 2011) see offshore wind as
being very expensive and recommends reducing planned
expansion by 3 GW and increasing onshore wind by same amount
Scroby Sands has a Load factor of 28.8% - 30% but
nevertheless produced sufficient electricity on average for
2/3rds of demand of houses in Norwich. At Peak time
sufficient for all houses in Norwich and Ipswich
11
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in
2020 and drivers/barriers
On Shore Wind
~25% [~15000 x
available now for
3 MW turbines] commercial exploitation
Off Shore Wind
some technical
development needed to
reduce costs.
25 - 50%
May 2011
2002
(Gas ~ 2p) (Gas ~ 8.0p) *
~ 2+p
~8.2p
+/- 0.8p
~2.5 - 3p
12.5p +/- 2.5
Micro Hydro Scheme operating
on Siphon Principle installed at
Itteringham Mill, Norfolk.
Rated capacity 5.5 kW
Hydro (mini micro)
5%
technically mature, but
limited potential
2.5 - 3p
Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not
otherwise specified
11p for
<2MW
projects
12
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in
2020 and drivers/barriers
May 2011
2002
(Gas ~ 2p) (Gas ~ 8.0p) *
~25%
[~15000
x that
available
now
for might be
Change
Report
suggests
1.6 TWh
(0.4%)
On Climate
Shore Wind
~ 2+p
3
MW
turbines]
commercial
exploitation
achieved by 2020 which is equivalent to ~ 2.0 GW.
some technical
Off Shore Wind
development needed to ~2.5 - 3p
25 - 50%
reduce costs.
Hydro (mini micro)
Photovoltaic
5%
technically mature, but
limited potential
<<5% even
available, but much further
assuming 10 GW of research needed to bring down
installation
costs significantly
~8.2p
+/- 0.8p
12.5p +/- 2.5
2.5 - 3p
11p for
<2MW
projects
15+ p
25p +/-8
Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not
otherwise specified
13
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in
2020 and drivers/barriers
~25% [~15000 x
available now for
On Shore Wind
Transport
Fuels:
3 MW
turbines] commercial exploitation
• Biodiesel?
some technical
Off Shore Wind
development needed to
25 - 50%
• Bioethanol?
reduce costs.
• Compressed gas from
Hydro (mini technically mature, but
methane from
waste.
5%
micro)
limited potential
Photovoltaic
Sewage, Landfill,
Energy Crops/
Biomass/Biogas
<<5% even assuming
10 GW of installation
??5%
May 2011
2002
(Gas ~ 2p) (Gas ~ 8.0p) *
~ 2+p
~8.2p
+/- 0.8p
~2.5 - 3p
12.5p +/- 2.5
2.5 - 3p
11p for
<2MW
projects
available, but much further
research needed
bring
Totoprovide
down costs significantly
p electricity
25p +/-8
5%15+
of UK
needs will require an area the size of
Norfolk and Suffolk devoted solely
to biomass
available, but research needed
in some areas e.g. advanced
gasification
2.5 - 4p
Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not
otherwise specified
7 - 13p
depending on
technology
14
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and 2002 (Gas May 2011
drivers/barriers
~ 2p)
(Gas ~ 8.0p)
On Shore Wind
~25%
available now
~8.2p +/- 0.8p
~ 2+p
Off Shore
available but costly
25 - 50%
~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5
Wind
11p for
Small Hydro
5%
limited potential
2.5 - 3p
<2MW
projects
available, but very
Photovoltaic
<<5%
15+ p
25p +/-8
costly
available, but research
Biomass
??5%
2.5 - 4p
7 - 13p
needed
currently < 10
techology limited Wave/Tidal MW may be 1000
major development not
Stream
- 2000 MW
before 2020
(~0.1%)
4 - 8p
Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not
otherwise specified
19p +/- 6
Tidal 26.5p
+/- 7.5p Wave
15
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and 2002 (Gas May 2011
drivers/barriers
~ 2p)
(Gas ~ 8.0p)
On Shore Wind
~25%
available now
~8.2p +/- 0.8p
~ 2+p
Off Shore
available but costly
25 - 50%
~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5
Wind
11p for
Small Hydro
5%
limited potential
2.5 - 3p
<2MW
projects
available, but very
Photovoltaic
<<5%
15+ p
25p +/-8
costly
available, but research
Biomass
??5%
2.5 - 4p
7 - 13p
needed
currently < 10
techology limited Wave/Tidal MW may be 1000
major development not
Stream
- 2000 MW
before 2020
(~0.1%)
4 - 8p
Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not
otherwise specified
19p +/- 6
Tidal 26.5p
+/- 7.5p Wave
16
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and 2002 (Gas May 2011
drivers/barriers
~ 2p)
(Gas ~ 8.0p)
On Shore Wind
~25%
availableSevern
now Barrage/
~8.2p
+/- 0.8p
~ 2+p
Mersey
Barrages
Off Shore
available buthave
costlybeen considered frequently
25 - 50%
~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5
Wind
e.g. pre war – 1970s, 2009
11p for
Severn Barrage
5-8%
Small Hydro
5%
limited potential
2.5could
- 3p provide
<2MW
of UK electricity needs
projects
available, butInvery
Orkney –15+
Churchill
Barriers
Photovoltaic
<<5%
p
25p +/-8
costly
Output ~80 000 GWh per annum available, but research
Sufficient for 13500
Biomass
??5%
2.5 - 4phouses 7in- 13p
needed
Orkney but there are only 4000 in
currently < 10
technologyOrkney.
limited - Controversy in bringing
19p +/- 6
Wave/Tidal MW may be 1000
major development
not
4 - 8p
Tidal 26.5p
cables south.
Stream
- 2000 MW
before 2020
+/- 7.5p
Wave
Would save 40000 tonnes
of CO
2
(~0.1%)
technology available but unlikely for
2020. Construction time ~10 years.
Tidal Barrages
5 - 15%
26p +/-5
In 2010 Government abandoned
plans for development
Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not
otherwise specified
17
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and 2002 (Gas May 2011
drivers/barriers
~ 2p)
(Gas ~ 8.0p)
On Shore
~25%
available now
~8.2p +/- 0.8p
~ 2+p
Wind
Off Shore
available but costly
25 - 50%
~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5
Wind
11p for
Small Hydro
5%
limited potential
2.5 - 3p
<2MW
available, but very
Photovoltaic
<<5%
15+ p
25p +/-8
costly
available, but research
Biomass
??5%
2.5 - 4p
7 - 13p
needed
currently < 10 MW technology limited Wave/Tidal
19p Tidal
??1000 - 2000 MW major development not
4 - 8p
Stream
26.5p Wave
(~0.1%)
before 2020
Tidal Barrages
Geothermal
5 - 15%
In 2010 Government abandoned
plans for development
26p +/-5
unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then -not to be
confused with ground sourced heat pumps which consume electricity
Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not
otherwise specified
18
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and 2002 (Gas May 2011
drivers/barriers
~ 2p)
(Gas ~ 8.0p)
On Shore
~25%
available now
~8.2p +/- 0.8p
~ 2+p
Wind
Off Shore
available but costly
25 - 50%
~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5
Wind
11p for
Small Hydro
5%
limited potential
2.5 - 3p
<2MW
available, but very
Photovoltaic
<<5%
15+ p
25p +/-8
costly
available, but research
Biomass
??5%
2.5 - 4p
7 - 13p
needed
currently < 10 MW technology limited Wave/Tidal
19p Tidal
??1000 - 2000 MW major development not
4 - 8p
Stream
26.5p Wave
(~0.1%)
before 2020
Tidal Barrages
Geothermal
5 - 15%
In 2010 Government abandoned
plans for development
26p +/-5
unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then -not to be
confused with ground sourced heat pumps which consume electricity
Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not
otherwise specified
19
Our Choices: They are difficult
Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind
and biomass?.
Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 10 - 20 years.
[very expensive or technically immature or both]
If our answer is NO
Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power ?
Are we happy with this and the other attendant risks?
If our answer is NO
Do we want to return to using coal?
• then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly
• unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years
UNLIKELY – confirmed by Climate Change Committee
[9th May 2011]
If our answer to coal is NO
Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued
exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation?
>>>>>>
20
Our Choices: They are difficult
If our answer is YES
By 2020
• we will be dependent on GAS
for around 70% of our heating and electricity
imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria
Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>>
If not:
We need even more substantial cuts in energy use.
Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global
Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field?
Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables?
Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS
option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.
We must take a coherent integrated approach in our decision making –
not merely be against one technology or another
21
Our looming over-dependence on gas for electricity generation
nuclear
new coal
gas
new nuclear
oil
medium renewables
coal
renewables
high renewables
450
billions of kWh
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
We need an integrated energy supply which is diverse and secure.
We need to take Energy out of Party Politics.!
On average each person in
UK causes the emission of 9
tonnes of CO2 each year.
How many people know what
9 tonnes of CO2 looks like?
5 hot air balloons per person
per year.
"Nobody made a greater mistake
than he who did nothing because he
thought he could do only a little."
Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)
23
Raising Awareness
• A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine.
Using it 5 times a week will cost ~ £100 a year just for this appliance
alone and emit over half a tonne of CO2.
• 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume
of 1 party balloon.
• A Mobile Phone charger: > 10 kWh per year
~ 500 balloons each year.
• Standby on electrical appliances
up to 20 - 150+ kWh a year - 7500 balloons. (up to £15 a year)
• A Toyota Corolla (1400cc): 1 party balloon every 60m.
•
Filling up with petrol (~£55 for a full tank – 40 litres)
At Gao’an No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai
--------- 90 kg of CO2
(5% of one hot air balloon)
上海徐汇区高第一小学
How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1400 cc
Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old
persons room for 1 hour?
School children at the Al Fatah University,
1.6
miles
Tripoli,
Libya
24
Electricity Consumption
kWh in period
4000
1 person
2 people
3 people
4 people
5 people
6 people
3000
2000
1000
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
No of people in household
6
Data courtesy of Karla Alcantar
• Social Attitudes have a profound effect on actual electricity consumption
• For a given size of household electricity consumption for appliances
[NOT HEATING or HOT WATER or COOKING] can vary by as much
as 9 times.
• Significant savings in money can arise from effective awareness
raising
• When income levels are accounted for, variation is still 6 times
25
kWh per day
Involve the local Community -The BroadSol Project
Solar Collectors installed 27th
January 2004
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Overall Solar Energy Gain
2007
2009
2011
2008
2010
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Annual Solar Gain 826 kWh
Members of community agreed to purchase Solar Panels
at same time. Significantly reduced costs
26
Responding to the Challenge: Solar Photovoltaic
Photovoltaic cells are very expensive, but integration of ideas is needed.
Output depends on type but varies from ~70kWh to
~100kWh per square meter per year.
The New Feed In Tariff makes things more attractive. 43.3p per
unit generated – an extra 3p if exported.
However this is 7.5 times cost of wind generation
But those who have installed PV will get the benefit from
increased payments for electricity by those who have not.
27
District 1080 Community Service & Vocations Committee
Awareness Raising and Good Record Keeping results in significant savings
St Paul’s Church,
Tuckswood
300
Pilot Lights
turned off
during week
kWh per week
250
200
100
50
Pilot
Lights £9
per week
Deanery Synod
Tamil Service
Main Service
pilot light
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
15/11
08/11
01/11
25/10
18/10
11/10
04/10
27/09
20/09
13/09
06/09
23/08
16/08
09/08
02/08
26/07
30/08
0
Heated by 3 warm
air heaters
Pilot
lights
off
150
Weeks in 2009 ending on date shown
New Strategy: pilot lights off throughout summer and used
strategically in winter resulted in an annual saving of:
5400 kWh of gas; 1030 kg of CO2 ; and a monetary saving of £260
Or a percentage saving of 38%
28
Feed in Tariffs – Introduced 1st April 2010
Energy Source
Scale
Anaerobic digestion
≤500kW
Anaerobic digestion
>500kW
Hydro
≤15 kW
Hydro
>15 - 100kW
Hydro
>100kW - 2MW
Hydro
>2kW - 5MW
Micro-CHP*****
<2 kW
Solar PV
≤4 kW new
Solar PV
≤4 kW retrofit
Solar PV
>4-10kW
Solar PV
>10 - 100kW
Solar PV
>100kW - 5MW
Solar PV
Standalone
Wind
≤1.5kW
Wind
>1.5 - 15kW
Wind
>15 - 100kW
Wind
>100 - 500kW
Wind
>500kW - 1.5MW
Wind
>1.5MW - 5MW
Existing generators transferred from RO
Export Tariff
***** for first 30000 installations
To 31/03/11 From 01/04/11 Duration (years)
11.5
12.1
20
9
9.4
20
19.9
20.9
20
17.8
18.7
20
11
11.5
20
4.5
4.7
20
10
10.5
10
36.1
37.8
25
41.3
43.3
25
36.1
37.8
25
31.4
32.9
25
29.3
30.7
25
29.3
30.7
25
34.5
36.2
20
26.7
28.0
20
24.1
25.3
20
18.8
19.7
20
9.4
9.9
20
4.5
4.7
20
to 2027
9
9.4
3
3.1
29
Rotary is a Community
•
•
•
•
Which can spread the message
Engage with Schools
Dispel myths
Use simple messages that people understand - often monetary
values mean more
• Think about our own actions.
– Tumble drying – once a week amounts to £25 a year
• Can we car share when going to District Council?
– Four people travelled separately from North Norfolk to District 1080
Assembly. They would have emitted and extra 75kg CO2 extra
compared to travelling together at a cost of £30 extra in fuel.
• Energy Security issues will be just as important as Carbon
reduction in the UK.
• Energy Security will increasingly affect us in next 10 years
• Global warming will increasingly affect our fellow citizens of the
planet in the developing world in the next 10 years
• Addressing Energy Security by taking small steps now will also
help with Global Warming
• Otherwise the Young will suffer during their life times.
• We in Rotary have the resources to work with the Young to
combat the challenges facing us.
Ethical Issues of International Trade
The Unbalanced Triangular Trade
0.94 billion
people
Raw materials
1.33 billion
people
Water issues are equally
important.
Each tonne of steel imported
from a developing country
consumes ~ 40 - 50 tonnes of
1.03 billion
people water
31
Each person in Developed Countries has been
responsible for an extra 463 kg of CO2 emissions in
goods imported from China in just 3 years
What could Rotary Do?
• Engage with the Local Community / Schools?
– To promote awareness
– To Join together to get discounts on sustainable projects
• Share a remote reading meter around your club to help
members/local community cut their energy consumption, improve
energy security, cut carbon emissions and save money?
• Is there merit in organising a District Workshop on
Environmental Issues? e.g.
– raising awareness where the individual can save money?
– Providing a sustainable and energy secure future for our
children
– Engaging with the community to protect the environment.
And Finally
“If you do not change direction, you
may end up where you are heading.”
Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher