Transcript Energy Policy in Europe, the UK and EIRE

Dieter Helm,
Professor of Energy Policy
University of Oxford
Dublin Economics Workshop
16th June 2011
Trinity College
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Myths and illusions in energy policy
The renewables directive
Decarbonisation of electricity by 2030
The context – all islands and the EU
Energy market reform
Unbundling, privatisation and competition
Towards a comprehensive, sustainable energy
policy
Myth 1
Peak oil and other
economic illiteracies
Myth 2
Kyoto and climate
change: consumption
not production
Myth 3
Energy efficiency
reduces demand and
growth decoupled
from energy
Myth 4
Energy markets can
be modelled to 2050
 2020 is 9 years away
 Renewables in Europe (wind) make little
difference to global warming
 Offshore wind is incredibly expensive
 Wind may  marginal system energy price = 0
 The UK (and others) will fail
 Much cheaper strategy = gas-for-coal
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Shale gas
Smart meters
Smart grids
Electric cars
Storage and batteries
Potential for breakthrough technologies
North European Markets
All Islands
All Ireland
Norway
Netherlands
Eire
France
NORTHERN
IRELAND
Capacity + Pool
Eire (4GW)
Break-up
NonEUETS
Carbon Tax
ENGLAND
WALES
SCOTLAND
FiTs
+
Capacity
+
Floor price
+
EPS
FRANCE administered
nuclear markets
Netherlands / German
markets
 4 GW is very small (= Drax)
 Legal vs. ownership unbundling
 Structure of market and market design
 Impact of foreign takeover
 Some questions:
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How will Eire ensure supply?
What happens if no investment?
What impact will intervention have?
What will the price be with lots of wind?
Etc etc etc.....
 Coal  gas for CO2 transition
 Flexible renewables (wider definition, onshore
wind etc)
 LNG + interconnectors
 Integrated all islands market
 Capacity contracts (long term)
And
 Look after Eire’s interests in a bigger market
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Helm, D. R. (2011),"Green growth: opportunities, challenges and costs", in:
Tsoukalis, L and Emmanouilidis, J. eds. (2010), “The Delphic Oracle on
Europe: Leaders and Coalitions, New European Contract and Europe's Global
Role”, Oxford University Press
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Helm, D. R. (2011), "Look to gas for the future", Prospect Magazine, March
24th.
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Helm, D. R. (2011), “What next for EU energy policy?”, Centre for European
Reform, forthcoming.
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Helm, D. R. (2011),"Peak Oil and Energy Policy – a critique", Forthcoming in
Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Vol 26, Issue 4.
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Helm, D. R. (2010),“Infrastructure and infrastructure finance: The role of the
government and the private sector in the current world", EIB Papers ,vol. 15
(2) on Infrastructure and infrastructure finance, 2010.
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Helm, D. R. (2010),“The Case for a Carbon Tax” in Greener, Cheaper edited
by Simon Less, Policy Exchange, July 27th 2010.
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Helm, D. R. (2009), “Nuclear Power, Climate Change and Energy Policy”, in
The Economics and Politics of Climate Change, edited by Helm and Hepburn,
OUP.
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