Transcript Joshua Sperling #1

NSF Food, Energy Water (FEW) Nexus in
Sustainable Cities Workshop | Beijing, China
FEW-Related Risks, Inter-dependencies, and Local Sustainability / Resilience
Priorities for the Nexus of Infrastructures, Environment, and Health in Cities
Peking University | Oct 2015
Joshua Sperling, Urban Futures at NCAR
This work was supported by NCAR, NSF-PIRE, NSF-IGERT, NSF-RCN, the
United States - India Fulbright Nehru Fellowship, and the IUSSTF.
URBAN FUTURES
OUR TEAM:
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Paty Romero-Lankao, Joshua Sperling, Ambika Chawla,
Dan Runfola, Sara Hughes, Hua Qin and other
collaborators within and outside NCAR
Regional to Global Scale
Urbanization dynamics shaping
emissions, vulnerability & risk
Neighborhood to City Scale
Socio-demographic, Economic,
Technological, Environmental,
Governance (SETEG)
Individual and Household
Scale
Disparities and differences in
capacity to respond to risks
Urban Futures
Individual
Neighborhood-City Regional-global
Goal 1: Urbanization dynamics shaping emissions, vulnerability and risk
Goal 2: Linking urban- and global-scale interdisciplinary research
Goal 3: How urban actors mitigate, adapt and meet development goals
Goal 4: Capacity building at the science-policy interface
Less-intensive
More-intensive
21st Century: Planning of Rapidly Urbanizing Cities and Urban Transitions
New urbanization projections (prepared for Rethinking Cities, World Bank, 2014):
• CHALLENGE: 10B urban people? 87% urban planet? 21st century = 3x more urban residents in
‘less developed’ world? What will be the infrastructures/institutions of a healthy urban planet?
• OPPORTUNITY: “Urban population will be split unevenly, with just 1.2B living in cities of what
we now think of as developed countries and 8.6B in cities of the developing world.”
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4%
15%
19%
38%
14%
52%
71%
11%
82%
76%
10%
87%
Fuller and Romer, 2014. Urbanization as Opportunity. (Calculations based on UNDESA, 2012)
Amadei, 2009
NSF PIRE: Developing Low-Carbon, Healthy and
Resilient Cities in the US, China, India
• Integration Across Engineering, Envmt’l Sciences, Social
Sciences, & Public Health: Year 1: India; Year 2: China; Yr 3: US
• Focus: reducing GHG emissions and addressing broader
sustainability goals - economic development, water scarcity,
environmental pollution, climate change and public health.
• Four themes:
Urban Metabolism &
Environmental Footprints
(Energy-Buildings-Transport Food-Water-Waste-Materials)
Low-Carbon, Resilient City
Interventions
(Transportation, Energy,
Water & Industrial Symbiosis)
Infrastructures,
Environment, and Health
(Outcomes / Inequities)
Social Actors and MultiLevel Governance
(Priorities / Capacities)
NCAR-Urban Futures: NSF PIRE and RCN
Relevant Outcomes in 2013-2015
• Special Issue on Urbanization & Carbon
– A set of four papers in the journal, Earth’s Future
– Additional article in Nature
Unique Risks, Interdependencies, & Sustainability / Resilience Priorities
at the FEW Nexus in Urbanizing Cities: Case of Beijing, China
Rising infrastructure and
resource demands
High pollution levels & pop
density exposed to pollution
These unique features are significant,
interrelated and critical to exploring the foodenergy-water nexus in rapidly urbanizing cities
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Climate change to exacerbate
risks to FEW resources
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Lack of access to quality FEW
shaping urban health outcomes
Total Beijing Municipal Infrastructure Investments (2010)
Parks & Green
Areas
1%
Aviation
10%
Gas Water
1% 1%
Heat
3% Sanitation
4%
Water
Conservancy
4%
Others
5%
Public Traffic
29%
•
4.4% of public traffic
expenditures to public
buses & trolleys
Railway
6%
Highway
7%
Electricity
5%
Telecomms
7%
Municipal
Construction
17%
Research Coordination Network (RCN) on
Sustainable Cities: People, Infrastructures,
and the Energy-Water-Climate Nexus
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20+ US Universities, 2 National Labs, and partner int’l research networks in
Australia, EU, Asia, and Latin America
Focus: reducing energy use, carbon emissions, and mitigating climate-risks to
water supply and public health in cities
● Boston
● Denver
● Lima
● Medellin
● Ho Chi Minh
Methods and Tools for Equitable
AND Sustainable CITIES
• Comparative assessment and implications
for infrastructure systems and policies that
integrate / reduce risk for diverse populations
Denver, Colorado, USA
Pop: 0.65M
Pop Dens: 3922 per/km2
Per Cap Income: $32,597
% <Poverty Line: 18.9%
Phoenix, Arizona, USA
Pop: 1.5M
Pop Dens: 2798 per/km2
Per Cap Income: $24,110
% <Poverty Line: 21.8%
Medellin, Colombia
Pop: 3.5M
Pop Dens: 3001 per/km2
Per Cap Income: $5,547
% Slum Population:
Beijing, China
Pop: 19.6M
Pop Dens: 11,500 per/km2
Per Cap Income: $6,400
% ‘Floating’ Population: 8%
Boston, Massachusetts, USA
Pop: 0.65M
Pop Dens: 12,793 per/km2
Per Cap Income: $33,589
% <Poverty Line: 21.2%
Tallahassee, Florida, USA
Pop: 0.2M
Pop Dens: 1809 per/km2
Per Cap Income: $24,200
% <Poverty Line: 30.1%
Lima, Peru
Pop: 8.5M
Pop Dens: 14010 per/km2
Per Cap Income: $8024
% Slum Population: 36%
● Mumbai
● Nairobi
● Phoenix
● Tallahassee
● Beijing
Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam
Pop: 8.0M
Pop Dens: 9,450 per/km2
Per Cap Income: $5,100
Mumbai, India % Slum Population: 26%
Pop: 20.5M
Pop Dens: 31,700 per/km2
Per Cap Income: $2,845
% Slum Population: 54%
Nairobi, Kenya
Pop: 3.2M
Pop Dens: 4850 per/km2
Per Cap Income: $930
% Slum Population: 22%
TARGETS
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Equity: access for all to adequate, safe affordable
housing & basic services and upgrade slums
Transportation: Provide access to safe,
affordable, accessible & sustainable transport
systems for all, improving road safety, expanding
public transport, with attention to special needs
Enhance inclusive and SUSTAINABLE
URBANIZATION, capacity for participatory,
integrated, sustainable planning/management
HEALTH & DISASTERS: Significantly reduce
deaths, # of people affected & direct economic
losses caused by disasters, with focus on
protecting the poor & vulnerable populations
AND HEALTHY !?!
FACTS AND FIGURES
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Half of humanity – 3.5 billion people – lives in cities today
By 2030, almost 60 per cent of the world’s population will live in urban areas
95 per cent of urban expansion in the next decades will take place in developing world
Cities occupy just 3% of Earth’s land, account 60-80% of energy consumption; 75%of carbon emissions
Rapid urbanization pressure on water/food supplies, sewage, the living environment, and public health
High density of cities can bring efficiency gains /innovation while reducing resource/energy consumption
Discussion: What would your group agree are some
health benefits / risks with both provision and lack of
provisions of below urban infrastructures. Make a list.
Benefits
Food Supply
Energy Supply
Water Supply
Transportation /
Connectivity
Buildings / Housing
Waste Management
Public Spaces
Risks
Health Risks & Benefits of Infrastructure
Sperling & Ramaswami 2012
A Nexus of Infrastructures, Environment, and Health in Cities:
Rationale and Unique Features of Indian Cities & the Case of Delhi, India
Multiple Inadequate Basic
Infrastructures
High Levels of Pollution & Pop
Density Exposed to Pollution
These unique features are interrelated and
critical to exploring the infrastructureenvironment-health nexus in Indian cities
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Causes of Death
Undocumented
Lack of Access to Quality14
Healthcare
Analysis of Mortality Data in Delhi, India
• More than 50% of Deaths
in Delhi – Causes Not
Classified
• Due to half of Delhi deaths
not reported by cause, both
bottom up survey and
community study are needed
to supplement hospital data
• 14% of total deaths were
of <5 children, 72%: ages 5
to 69; 15% of those > age 70
Sperling and Ramaswami, 2013
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Infrastructures & Public Health RiskMortality Analyses, Delhi (2008)
Particulate air
pollution – fuel
combustion,
regional air
Water &
Sanitation
Transportation, Mobility, Food
Sperling and Ramaswami, 2013
Indoor air, overcrowding
• Hatched areas show causes of
death that MAY have an
infrastructure-environment
association based on literature
•19% of classified deaths by
cause infrastructure or
environment-related
Science Contributions
US, India & China
• MUMBAI: Assessing Infrastructures, Health
Hazards, Vulnerability, HH & Policy Responses
• BEIJING: Urbanization, Resource Use, and Risks
• US-INDIA-CHINA: Drivers of Low-Carbon,
Healthy, & Resilient Cities
% Stating Experiencing Hazard as an Issue:
Mumbai Survey (2013-2014)
60%
1200+ Household Survey:
31% Lack Piped Water;
25% No Toilet Facility;
8% Have Chronic Asthma
40%
20%
0%
Extreme High Levels Extreme
Heat
of Air
Rain and
Pollution Flooding
Extreme
Drought
Other
Typhoon Vincente Causes
Record Flooding in Beijing on
July, 2012
100 dead: 38 in Beijing core
$1.6 billion in urban damage
57,000 forced from homes
Data Contributions
• MUMBAI: 1200 Household Surveys and
20 Interviews
• BEIJING: Scoping meetings for China
research, data integration efforts across
gov’t., academia, pvt sector, civil society
and int’l actors; GIS data and analyses
• WRF model of 2012 flood event
Datasets Used from Within Demographic and Health Survey – India
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All-India (n= 51,555) | Urban India (n=19,483)
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Delhi (n=1150 households)
+5 More Indian Cities (n= 600 to 1000)
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Infrastructure deficiencies common in
All Indian cities, and improve with SES
Inter-city variability shown below:
•Indore
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Developing Infrastructure-Environment-Health
and SETEG GeoData of 288 Cities in China
Results Supporting Urban Transitions Theory: % of Total Votes for TOP THREE Priorities among
Infrastructures, Environment, or Climate-related Extreme Weather Events By Study Area
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Infrastructure Factors
Waste
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 Pollution 
Parks
Electricity
Water
Supply
Drainage
TOP INFR PRIORITIES (>20%) BY AREA:
NM: Water supply, waste, & roads/drainage
BJ: Public space, Water supply, Drainage & Electricity
DG: None >20%, yet pollution/extreme heat ranked high
Outdoor Air
Pollution
 Climate 
Extreme
Heat
A Key Message:
households deprived
of infrastructure
provisions prioritize
that first.
Areas of Highest Perceived Risks and Interest for
Infrastructure & Policy Interventions in Mumbai
Priorities for Action and Policy
• Quantitative + Qualitative Methods for Analyses of
Urban Emissions, Risk & Vulnerability across cities:
food-energy-water resources and infrastructure & supplychain interdependencies, hazard-related health outcomes,
exposure, sensitivity and capacity of populations
• Institutional capacity to govern urbanization, climate,
FEW resources & their nexus: Potential for replication of
methods across cities globally to examine: sustainable
infrastructures; policies; interplay of actors and networks;
institutional enablers/barriers of effective actions
• Understanding Urbanization Alternatives and
Implications for Society-Relevant Outcomes & SDGs
• Energy & Governance Chapters for 2nd Assessment
Report on Cities & Climate Change (to be published in
CUP, 2015)
Climate change
exacerbating risks
to FEW resources
Rising infrastructure
and FEW resource
demands
High pollution
levels & pop
density exposed
to pollution
Lack of access to quality FEW
shaping urban health outcomes
Thank you. Questions?
Email: [email protected]
“The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. The next
best time is today.” – Chinese proverb