Transcript 5.6.5 Forest Growth

Advisory group meeting Copenhagen , 23 Apri 2008
EEA-JRC-WHO 2008 Indicator report on CC
Agriculture and Forestry indicators
Carlo Lavalle
Land Management and Natural Hazards Unit
Institute for Environment and Sustainability,
Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Italy
Advisory group meeting Copenhagen , 23 Apri 2008
Sub-chapter 5.6
Agriculture and Forestry
Coordinator:
Carlo Lavalle
EEA Contact:
Elena Cebrian
Indicators
(Lead author)
5.6.1 Category introduction
JRC (C. Lavalle)
5.6.2 Crop Yield Variability
JRC (F. Micale)
5.6.3 Timing of the cycle of agricultural crops (Agrophenology)
JRC (F. Micale)
5.6.4 Irrigation demand
JRC (F. Micale)
5.6.5 Forest Growth
JRC (T. Houston)
5.6.6 Forest Fire Danger
JRC (A.Camia, G. Amatulli)
5.6.7 Soil Organic Carbon
JRC (V. Stolbovoy, R. Hiederer)
5.6.8 Growing Season for agricultural crops
JRC (F. Micale)
Advisory group meeting Copenhagen , 23 Apri 2008
5.6.1 Category introduction
 important to stress that
 several pressures on agri & fore, not only CC
 difficult to detect changes linked to CC,
especially for long processes
 importance of pests and deseases (no data)
 not an uniform trends for Europe and theme
5.6.2 Crop Yield Variability
Advisory group meeting Copenhagen , 23 Apri 2008
 5.6.2 Main indicator
Modelled suitability change for grain maize cultivation in the past (1961–1990) and in
the future (2071–2100). Source: Olesen et al., 2007
5.6.2 Crop Yield Variability
Advisory group meeting Copenhagen , 23 Apri 2008
 5.6.2 Projections
Yield variation due to temperature increase. A small increase of temperature has a
positive impact on cereals yield, while a high increase (3-5°C) has a negative
impact.
5.6.2 Crop Yield Variability
Advisory group meeting Copenhagen , 23 Apri 2008
 5.6.2 Key messages
•
Over the last decades the yields of major agricultural crops, including
cereals, increased across Europe (very high confidence).
•
Climate change is responsible for variations of crop suitability and
productivity in Europe (high confidence).
•
Since the beginning of the 21st century, the variability of crop yields
increased as a consequence of the extreme climatic events, e.g. the summer
heat of 2003 or the spring drought of 2007 (very high confidence).
•
As a consequence of climatic changes those extreme climatic events
are projected to increase in frequency and magnitude and crop yields are
expected to become more variable. Changes in farming practices and land
management can act as risk-mitigating measures (high confidence).
Advisory group meeting Copenhagen , 23 Apri 2008
5.6.3 Timing of the cycle of agricultural crops
(Agrophenology)
 5.6.3 Main indicator
Simulated changes in the occurrence of the beginning of flowering (DVS100)
of winter wheat between 1975-2006*
Days/year
-1.0 - -0.5
-0.5 - -0.3
-0.3 - 0
0 - 0.1
No data
* - based on observed daily meteo data (MARS-STAT DB)
Advisory group meeting Copenhagen , 23 Apri 2008
5.6.3 Timing of the cycle of agricultural crops
(Agrophenology)
 5.6.3 Grapevine phenology
Evolution of potential alcohol levels at harvest for Riesling in Alsace (F). Source:
Duchen et al., 2005
Advisory group meeting Copenhagen , 23 Apri 2008
5.6.3 Timing of the cycle of agricultural crops
(Agrophenology)
 5.6.3 Key messages
•
There is evidence that flowering and maturity of several
species in Europe now occur two or three weeks earlier than in the
past (very high confidence).
•
The shortening of the phenological phases are expected to
continue if the temperature will keep increasing (high confidence).
5.6.4 Irrigation demand
Advisory group meeting Copenhagen , 23 Apri 2008
 5.6.4 observed trend
Variation in the annual meteorological water balance between April and October (m3/ha/yr)
between 1975 and 2007.
5.6.4 Irrigation demand
Advisory group meeting Copenhagen , 23 Apri 2008
 5.6.4 past trend
In the Mediterranean area, a worsening climatic water deficit has been observed over the past
32 years (1975-2006) .
5.6.4 Irrigation demand
Advisory group meeting Copenhagen , 23 Apri 2008
 5.6.4 Key messages
• Between 1975 and 2006 clear trends, both positive and negative, were
evident in irrigation demand across Europe, with marked spatial variability.
A significant increase of irrigation demand (50-70%) occurred mainly in
Mediterranean areas; large decreases were recorded mainly in northern
and central European regions (very high confidence).
• Current trends and future scenarios depict an increase in the demand for
water in agriculture, potentially reducing the amount available for other
sectors (high confidence).
5.6.8 Growing Season for agricultural crops
Advisory group meeting Copenhagen , 23 Apri 2008
 5.6.8 Main indicator
Rate of variation of Growing Season length
5.6.8 Growing Season for agricultural crops
Advisory group meeting Copenhagen , 23 Apri 2008
 5.6.8 Past trend
Frost-free period in
Frost-free period in
Danmark (DK)
HIGHLANDS AND ISLANDS (UK)
300
400
350
250
Nr. of days
Nr. of days
300
200
150
250
200
150
100
100
50
2002
2004
2006
2008
2006
2008
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
Development of frost-free periods in selected areas
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
50
1990
50
1988
100
1986
150
100
1978
200
150
1984
1986
250
1976
200
1974
250
1982
2004
300
1980
2000
350
300
1978
2002
350
Nr. of days
400
1976
1984
EXTREMADURA (ES)
400
1974
1982
Frost-free period in
THESSALIA (GR)
Nr. of days
2000
Frost-free period in
1980
1978
1976
1974
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
50
5.6.8 Growing Season for agricultural crops
Advisory group meeting Copenhagen , 23 Apri 2008
 5.6.8 Key messages
• There is evidence that growing season length has varied in Europe
for several agricultural crops (very high confidence).
• The longer growing season increases the productivity of crop yields
and insect population and favours the introduction of new species in
areas which were not suitable for these species before. These
opportunities are particularly important for the northern latitudes
(high confidence).
• At southern latitudes, the trend is towards shortening of the growing
season with consequent higher risk of frost damages for the crops
due to delayed spring frost events (high confidence).
5.6.5 Forest Growth
Advisory group meeting Copenhagen , 23 Apri 2008
 5.6.5 Presentation of main indicators
Modelled current (year 2000, left hand side) and future (year 2100, right hand side)
of the 10 most dominant European Forest Categories (EEA, 2006), modelled to
evaluate the change of habitat suitability. Source: Casalegno et al. 2007.
5.6.5 Forest Growth
Advisory group meeting Copenhagen , 23 Apri 2008
 5.6.5 Trends and projections
Warmer winter weather is likely to increase
productivity by extending the length of the
growing season (Cannell et al., 1998).
Reduced summer rainfall may reduce tree growth and
severe droughts may kill increasing numbers of trees.
Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations can
have a fertilising effect.
Elevated atmospheric ozone concentrations may have a
negative impact on growth (Sitch et al., 2007; Karnosky
et al., 2005).
Cold and snow-related damage are likely to
become less common.
Violent storms may occur more often, and more trees
are likely to be damaged or blown down.
Possible increase in spring frost damage as trees
become more susceptible through earlier leafing.
Damage by forest fires and insect pests is projected to
increase.
5.6.5 Forest Growth
Advisory group meeting Copenhagen , 23 Apri 2008
 5.6.5 Key messages
•
In much of continental Europe, the majority of forests are growing faster now than
in the early 20th century (High confidence).
•
A changing climate will favour certain species in some forest locations, while
making conditions worse for others, leading to substantial shifts in vegetation distribution
(Very high confidence).
•
The distribution and phenology of other plant and animal species (both pests and
pollinators) is likely to change, leading to further alterations in competition dynamics in
forests that will be difficult to predict (High confidence).
5.6.6 Forest Fire Danger
Advisory group meeting Copenhagen , 23 Apri 2008
 5.6.6 Main indicator
Past trends of fire danger level from 1958-2006 using the Seasonal Severity Rating (SSR).
5.6.6 Forest Fire Danger
Advisory group meeting Copenhagen , 23 Apri 2008
 5.6.6 Projections
Projected differences for the Monthly Fire Severity Index
5.6.6 Forest Fire Danger
Advisory group meeting Copenhagen , 23 Apri 2008
 5.6.6 Key messages
• Under a warmer climate more severe fire weather is expected and, as a consequence,
more area burned, more ignitions and longer fire seasons (high confidence).
• Climate change will increase the fire potential during summer months, especially in
southern and central Europe (high confidence).
• The period in which fire danger exists will be longer in the future due to climate change,
with a likely increase of the frequency of extreme fire danger days in spring and autumn
(high confidence).
5.6.7 Soil organic carbon
Advisory group meeting Copenhagen , 23 Apri 2008
 5.6.7 Main indicator
Changes in soil organic carbon contents across England and Wales between 1978 and 2003.
a) Carbon contents in the original samplings (1978-83),
b) b) rates of change calculated from the changes over the different sampling intervals (19942003).
Source: Bellamy et al., 2005
5.6.7 Soil organic carbon
Advisory group meeting Copenhagen , 23 Apri 2008
 5.6.7 future trend
Projected changes of soil organic carbon in the EU for cropland for the IPCC SRES A2 scenario
up to 2080. The map (left) shows that climate change can cause loss (red-colour) of SOC for most
areas in Europe. This decline can be reversed (blue-colour) if measures enhancing soil carbon are
implemented. As these are modelled data the projected developments should be regarded with
caution. Source: Smith et al., 2005.
5.6.7 Soil organic carbon
Advisory group meeting Copenhagen , 23 Apri 2008
 5.6.7 Key messages
• Soil in the EU contains around 71*109 tons (or 71 gigatons, Gt) of organic carbon, nearly
10% of the carbon accumulated in the atmosphere) An increase in temperature and a
reduction in moisture tend to accelerate decomposition of organic material and
subsequently lead to a decline in soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in Europe (high
confidence).
•The projected changes in the climate during the 21st century will make soils a source of
CO2 in most areas of the EU. To counterbalance the climate-induced decline of carbon
levels in soil adapted land use and management practices can be implemented (high
confidence).
•Changes in SOC have already been observed in measurements in various European
regions over the last 25 years (very high confidence)
Agriculture & Forestry - conclusions
Advisory group meeting Copenhagen , 23 Apri 2008
• Possible further improvements / changes:
• Merging of chapters on agrophenology and growing season
• Use of new map for crop yield prediction
• Inclusion of references to National studies in the introduction
For information:
High level conference on “Climate change – can soil make a difference?” organised by
EC/DG ENV in Brussels on 12 June 2008