Transcript Central Asia and Caucasus Disaster Risk Management

Anahit Hovsepyan
Climate Research Division
Armstatehydromet
ARMENIA IN BRIEF
 Armenia is situated in the north-
eastern part of Armenian plateau
• The lowest altitude is about 370m
a.s.l., the highest point is 4095m
(M. Aragats)
• The total territory of the
country 29.800 km2
 Geographical location of
Armenia, complex mountain
relief have conditioned the
diversity of natural conditions
across the country.
11/05/2010
Second WMO/MEDARE International Workshop,
Nicosia Cyprus
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Armenia: IN BRIEF
 The climate is dry, the annual
average precipitation amounts
to 592mm, with the range of
250-1000mm.
Annual average temperature is
5.50C, with minimum recorded
temperature of -420C, and
maximum recorded 430C.
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WMO Wrokshop on Strategyfor Implementation
of CSIS, WMO, Geneva
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Hydrometeorological hazards in Armenia
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Drought
Heat/cold wave
Hail
Spring Frost
Strong wind
Heavy Rainfall
Flood
Avalanche
5-7 April, 2011
WMO Wrokshop on Strategyfor Implementation
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Armstatehydromet:
Evolution of observation network
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started in 1843 in
Gyumri and in 1844
in Yerevan
Highest number of
stations 77 was in
1972
Until 1935 two times
per day observations
Until 1965 - 4 times
From 1966 - 8 times
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80
N
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1885
1889
1893
1897
1901
1905
1909
1913
1917
1921
1925
1929
1933
1937
1941
1945
1949
1953
1957
1961
1965
1969
1973
1977
1981
1985
1989
1993
1997
2001
2005
2009
 First observations
Evolution of meteorological network in Armenia
during 1885-2010
Second WMO/MEDARE International Workshop,
Nicosia Cyprus
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Current network
Consists of 47 meteorological stations
8 obs. per day
5 stations have time series for more
than 100 years
Those are unique in the region due to
their location and duration.
12 stations are high-mountainous and
located at the elevation over 2000 m
above sea level, out of them 6 are
remote and hard-to-reach stations.
Aragats high-mountain (3229 m a.s.l.)
established in 1929,
It is the only station in the region,
operating in the altitude more 3000m
Aragats h/m included in the GSN.
11/05/2010
Second WMO/MEDARE International Workshop,
Nicosia Cyprus
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FORECASTING ACTIVITIES
Scale of forecasts
 Nowcasting
 Short range forecast
 Medium range forecast
 Monthly forecast
 Seasonal forecast
Specialized forecasts
 Hydrological
 Agrometeorological
5-7 April, 2011
WMO Wrokshop on Strategyfor Implementation
of CSIS, WMO, Geneva
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FORECASTING ACTIVITIES
Data/Information used for weather forecasting
 Observation data
 Forecast maps (images) from UK MO, ECMWF,
GFS, Roshydromet
 Satellite images from EUMETCAST
 Aerological measurements (diagrams, charts)
 Synoptic knowledge on dynamical processes
 Implementing WRF, HRM in experimental stage
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WMO Wrokshop on Strategyfor Implementation
of CSIS, WMO, Geneva
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CLIMATE SERVICES
5-7 April, 2011
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of CSIS, WMO, Geneva
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RAVI RCC node on climate
monitoring
T2m from NCEP-NCAR
Reanalysis
Precip. CAMS-OPI
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Input to:
Annual bulletin on
the climate in WMO
RAVI
BAMS State of the
Climate
ECA&D
ECSM
GPCC
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Satellite derived products
Satellite Application Facility on
Climate Monitoring (CM-SAF)
DWD provides high quality data sets
with high spatial resolution
inter-comparison of satellite
data with observed values for
solar radiation and albedo,
 validation of CM-SAF
products
 development and application
of merging technique with
surface data
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Climate studies
During last 80 years average
temperature by 0.85° C and
annual precipitation
decreased by 6% in Armenia
Change of CDD
Precipitation changes
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Change
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of Summer
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Climate change studies
Involvement in preparation on National
Communications:
Development of climate change scenarios
based on PRECIS outcomes under A2
Ability of models to reproduce regional
climate features in South Caucasus (CMIP3 data)
to identify suitable set of models
analysis of spatial patterns,
annual cycle,
interannual variability
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 Need to enhance Armstatehydromet efforts and
improve utilization of climate information for
climate change adaptation methods,
 Need to support development and application of
advanced climate products and strengthen
institutional capacity of Armstatehydromet
 Strengthen capacities of relevant ministries,
organizations, local government bureaus and
communities in using the available climate
information
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Gaps & Needs
 Strengthen human capacities
 Educational level, scientific and technical qualifications
of the staff do not fully meet the current requirements
 Technical capacities
 Most of the equipment needs to be modernized,
softwares upgraded, automated
 Observation network to be upgraded significantly
 Implement new methodologies, models
 Develop Long Range Forecasting system
 Implement application models – agrometeorological,
hydrological etc.
5-7 April, 2011
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Gaps & Needs
 International, regional cooperation,
 To establish an effective system of cross-border
exchange of warnings among NMHSs,
 Timeliness, frequency, content, format and
delivery to be specified between the NMHSs
 Cross-border exchanges of warnings should not be
limited to relatively short-lived meteorological
hazards
 To exchange for hazards of longer-time scale, such
as heat, cold, wet or dry spells, drought etc
5-7 April, 2011
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of CSIS, WMO, Geneva
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5-7 April, 2011
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of CSIS, WMO, Geneva
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