Transcript - Catalyst

After reading the WSJ Opinion Piece and
regarding predictions about climate change,
I am ..
4%
43%
16%
2
3
30%
7%
1. Much more
skeptical
2. Somewhat
skeptical
3. Always been
skeptical
4. Still convinced
5. Still strongly
convinced
1
4
5
World Food Facts
• Average ~2700 cal/person
• Total Calories
– from plants: 84% (54% from cereals; rice and wheat are ~1/2)
– from animals: 16%
– from fish: 1%
• 40% of the world’s food comes from 20% of cropland that is
irrigated
• Rates of Change
– Cereal yield increase in Green Revolution (~1960-80): 2%/year
– Cereal Demand increasing 2%/year
– World Cereal Production Peaked in 1975
– Soil loss 15Mha/yr (~1% of arable land per year)
– 1/4 of arable land degraded in past 50 years
The Global Seed Bank, Svalbard Norway
Climate Change in Developing
(Agrarian) Countries
1. Where do the Food Insecure live?
2. Projections of climate at the end of the 21st Century
3. Climate Change and food security in developing nations
Where do the Food Insecure live?
1 B people are malnourished today
• 95% are in the tropics/subtropics
What do the food
insecure eat?
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Rice (26%)
Wheat (17%)
Sugar Cane (8%)
Maize (6%)
Nuts (5%)
Casava (4%)
Other (34%)
Lobell et al. (2008)
The food insecure are also the poor. They depend heavily
on agriculture for both food an income.
Climate Change in Developing
(Agrarian) Countries
1. Where are do the Food insecure live?
2. Projections of climate at the end of the 21st Century
(from IPCC)
– Focus on those changes that are “very likely” (i.e.,
those that are either deemed to have a greater than
90% chance to occur “based on quantitative
analysis or an elicitation of the expert views”)
3. Climate Change and food security in developing nations
How much Carbon Dioxide will be released
into the atmosphere?
Atmospheric CO2 Concentration
• Depends on population and
economic projections, future
choices for energy,
governance/policy options
in development (e.g.,
regional vs. global
governance)
• The most conservative estimate doubles CO2 from pre-industrial by
the end of the Century. More realistic scenarios nearly triple CO2
– More than anytime since at least 3M years ago
– Rate of change is 100-1000 times faster than nature
– Time it takes nature to restore to normal levels: 1000s of years
A2
A1B
B1
Projected Annual Average Surface
Temperature Change:
“2080-2099” minus “1980-1999”
Average of 21 climate models forced by Scenario A1B.
Multiply by ~1.2 for A2 and ~0.7 for B1
Projected Annual Average Precipitation:
“2080-2099” minus “1980-1999”
Scenario A1B
Drier
Wetter
There is a robust drying of the subtropics, 20-35N&S.
Stippling is where the multimodel average change exceeds the standard deviation of the models
Climate Change in Developing
(Agrarian) Countries
1. Where are do the Food insecure live?
2. Projections of climate at the end of the 21st Century
3. Climate Change and food security in developing nations
•
Precipitation
•
Temperature
•
Other
Projected Changes in the Central Asia:
“2080-2099” minus “1980-1999”
Dec-Feb
June-Aug
Drying in Central Asia and Southern Europe
(~ 15 - 30% reduction of annual mean precip)
Scenario A1B
The recent 1998-2001 drought in the Central Asia
Precip Anomaly
(mm/month)
~ 30%
annual
mean
precip
deficit
20
0
- 20
1950
1970
1990
2000
The recent 1998-2001 drought in
the Central Asia
•Iran:
80% of livestock lost
35 - 75% reduction in wheat & barley
•Afghanistan:
40% of livestock lost
•Pakistan:
50% of livestock lost
•Tajikistan:
50% of grain crop lost
By the end of the century, similar water stress on agriculture will
be the norm throughout the tropics and subtropics due to the
climate changes associated with increasing CO2.
Climate Change in Developing
(Agrarian) Countries
1. Where are do the Food insecure live?
2. Projections of climate at the end of the 21st Century
3. Climate Change and food security in developing nations
•
Precipitation
•
Temperature
•
Other
Projections of future temperature
Mean
1900-2000
Mean
2070-2100
Projected JJA Average Surface Temperature
Change:
“2080-2099” minus “1980-1999”
Average of 21 climate models forced by Scenario A1B.
Multiply by ~1.2 for A2 and ~0.66 for B1
Extreme Heat in Western Europe in 2003:
JJA temperature 3.6°C above normal
•France & N. Italy: 30,000 - 50,000 dead of heat stress
•Italy:
36% drop in maize yields
•France:
30% decrease in maize and fodder production
25% decline in fruit harvests
21% reduction in wheat yields
By 2100, years of similar temperature stress on agriculture will
be the norm throughout the tropics and subtropics due to the
summer average temperature changes.
Refs: UNEP 2007; Easterling 2007; Earth Policy Institute 2006; Eurosurveillence 2005
Growing Season Temperature
France
Observed JJA Temp
(1900-2007)
2003
Projections of Growing Season Temperature
France
Observed JJA Temp
(1900-2007)
Projections use 22
climate models (IPCC
AR4) forced by A1B
Emission scenario.
Variability taken from
observations
2003
Projections of Growing Season Temperature
France
2003
The Sahel
Projections of Growing Season Temperature
By the end of the 21st Century it will be much hotter everywhere
In most of the tropics/subtropics, the seasonal average
temperature will very likely exceed the warmest year on record
Battisti and Naylor 2009
Impacts of Climate Change on Food Security
Increasing temperature over the
next 50 years will cause decreases
in yield:
Wheat Yield in Yaqui
Valley, MX
• Decrease in grain filling
• Decrease in spikelet fertility
• Increased water stress
• Increased respiration
Important for all crops, but
especially for wheat, rice and
soybeans (nb, these are the C3
crops that would otherwise benefit
from increased CO2) and maize
Jan-Mar Night Temp
(°C)
Lobell 2007
Impacts of Climate Change on Food Security
Impacts of increased temperature (only):
•
Reduced yields of wheat, rice and soybeans in the
tropics/subtropics
–
Approximately -10% per 1ºC warming
–
Est. reduction of 30-40% by 2100 in India, Southern Africa,
Middle East, etc.
•
Reduced nutritional content (especially protein in wheat
and rice)
•
Increased disease transmission rates
•
Loss of water stored in snow pack and glaciers (e.g.,
Sierra, Himalaya)
–
Reduced duration of river supplied water, especially important
for India and Bangladesh
Impacts of Climate Change on Food Security
By 2050, many countries in the subtropics will experience:
–
Typically a 10 - 20% reduction in rainfall (northern and southern
Africa, Caribbean, Middle East, etc.)
–
Increased frequency, duration and intensity of drought
Impacts of changing precipitation:
–
Reduced yields and in some places abandonment of staple
crops (many of these regions are marginal for crops presently
grown)
–
Duration and intensity of monsoon (e.g., rice in Indonesia)
–
Increase in flooding in midlatitudes and tropics (increase
intensity of precipitation on drier soils)
–
Leaching of nutrients in soil
Impacts of Climate Change on Food Security
Other impacts of climate change on agriculture
•
Increased carbon dioxide and plants
–
Enhanced growth rate for some C3 plants (benefits limited
to < 2030AD, and to the extratropics)
–
Including temperature increases due to CO2, a net negative
impact in tropics/subtropics for all crops (C3 and C4)
•
Effects on soil BGC
•
Effects on plant pathology (reduced protein content and
resilience to disease)
•
Sea level rise: about 35cm by 2100
– salinization and loss of arable land
Changes in pest and pathogens
•
Summary
• By 2100, growing season temperatures will
very likely exceed the warmest on record
throughout the tropics and subtropics
– 20-40% reduction in yields of major crops (plant
physiology)
• In subtropics, crops will be further stressed by
reduced rainfall
• Increased CO2 (fertilization) effect is small
(<10% for doubling CO2)
• Pest and Pathogens (losses ~ double)
Where do the Food Insecure live?
1 B people are malnourished today
• 95% are in the tropics/subtropics
The food insecure
- depend heavily on
agriculture for food
and income
- live in regions where
agriculture will be
most stressed by
global warming
Lobell et al (2008)
Estimates: 200-400M more people at risk
of hunger by 2080 due to climate change
- live in countries that
have the greatest
population growth
rates
The ‘effectiveness (±)’ of the WJ Opinion
Piece was a result of ‘sound’ use of:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
48%
Empirical claims
Normative claims
Mixed
Mostly normative
Mostly empirical
22%
13%
15%
2%
1
2
3
4
5
How much Carbon Dioxide will be released
into the atmosphere?
Covered in Lecture 5 (Yoram)
Emissions
A2 (business
as usual)
A1B
A2
A1B
B1
B1 (utopia)
Estimates depends on population and economic projections, future choices
for energy, governance/policy options in development (e.g., regional vs.
global governance)
Carbon Dioxide in the Atmosphere
Covered in Lecture 5 (Yoram)
-- 700 ppm
A2
A1B
2100AD
B1
2010 AD
1850AD
8000BC
400
200
Today
Thousands of years before present
Global Annual Average Surface Temperature
Covered in Lecture 5 (Yoram)
Model
Uncertainty
Referenced to the 1980-1999 Average Temperature
Solid lines: average of all models used. Number of models used
varies; shaded area is the standard deviation of the models
Covered in Lecture 5 (Yoram)
Climate changes due to human activity
Virtually certain > 99%
Very likely >90%
Yoram, in lecture 5, compare the language used in the
various IPCC report. This is a detailed description of
some specifics associated with increases in average global
land and sea temperatures.
IPCC 2007
Projected Changes in Africa:
“2080-2099” minus “1980-1999”
Dec-Feb
June-Aug
Scenario A1B
Drying in Northern & Southern Africa projected by more than 16
of 21 models: 10-15% of annual mean in S. Africa; 20-30% in
N. Africa (regions that are marginal for agriculture today).
About 20% wetter in E. Africa
The models diverge for the Sahel: half the models show drying
Impact on Natural Tropical Ecosystems
Insects
Though projected climate changes are smaller in the tropics than in the
mid and high latitudes, ecothermal species in the tropics will be more
negatively affected than those in the midlatitudes (terrestrial and
marine)
Tewksbury et al 2008
Fitness
Impact on Natural Tropical Ecosystems
• Species living in the midlatitudes experience large natural temperature
swings (e.g., 20 to 30ºC changes from winter to summer)
• Species in the tropics have experienced very small temperature
variability for the past 10,000 years (2 to 4ºC)
• Time and evolution has made tropics species less resilient to
temperature changes
Tewksbury et al 2008
Epilog
• In June 2009, a meeting of the chief maize
breeders. Scientists from Pioneer Seed,
Monsanto, two of the International Research
Centers, four major universities, etc.
• All agree: higher temperatures in the
subtropics have large negative impacts on
maize yield. All have different explanations.
World Food Facts
• Average ~2700 cal/person
• Total Calories
– from plants: 84% (54% from cereals; rice and wheat are ~1/2)
– from animals: 16%
– from fish: 1%
• 40% of the world’s food comes from 17% of cropland that is
irrigated
• Rates of Change
– Cereal yield increase in Green Revolution (~1960-80): 2%/year
– Cereal Demand increasing 2%/year
– World Cereal Production Peaked in 1975
– Soil loss 15Mha/yr (~1% of arable land per year)
– 1/4 of arable land degraded in past 50 years
The Global Seed Bank, Svalbard Norway
Thank You
Thank You