Transcript Climate change variables in relation to direct

Encountering climate change:
Is seeing believing?
Griffith Climate Change Public Seminar Series
Thursday, 31st January
EcoCentre, Nathan Campus, Griffith University
Speaker: Joseph Reser
Panelists: Donald Hine and Elizabeth Bragg
National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility
Griffith Climate Change Response Program
Behavioural Basis of Health
School of Applied Psychology, Griffith University
Current program focus and research fronts
1.
The social representation of climate change and natural disasters
2.
Public risk perceptions, understandings, and responses to climate
change and natural disasters with particular focus on psychological
adaptation processes
3.
Psychological and social (psychosocial) environmental impacts of the
threats of climate change and natural disasters
4.
Measuring and monitoring important psychological and social
changes in the human landscape in response to the threat and
unfolding impacts of climate change
5.
The establishment of a database, standardised measures and
protocols, and a research monitoring program to document these
changes and impacting processes
•Social science based
•Collaborative, cross-national
•All researchers were psychologists
•Objectives
•Psychological parameters,
processes, & scales
•Independent sample 2010, n = 3096
•Independent sample 2011, n = 4347
http://www.nccarf.edu.au/publications/public-risk-perceptions
Australian population distribution and survey
sampling centres
Headline findings
 In 2011, 74% of Australian respondents personally thought that climate
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change was occurring, with 69% ‘very’ or ‘fairly’ certain that this was
happening, 50% judged it is already happening in Australia.
69% of respondents either ‘strongly agreed’ or ‘tended to agree’ with
the statement, “I am certain that climate change is really happening”.
87% of respondents believed that human activities were playing a
causal role in climate change.
45% of respondents reported having had direct personal experience of
an environmental change or event likely due to climate change.
42% reported it being ‘a serious problem right now’.
 64% reported being ‘very’ or ‘fairly’ concerned about climate change.
 43% reported that climate change was an ‘extremely’ or ‘quite’
important issue to them personally
 Approximately 20% of respondents reported feeling, at times,
appreciable distress at the prospects and implications of climate
change.
 Well over one half of respondents (61%) reported being prepared to
greatly reduce their energy use to tackle climate change (61%) and
many are psychologically adapting to the threat of climate change and
changing their behaviours and lifestyle with respect to reducing their
own carbon footprint.
Direct experience and perceptions relating to perceived
climate changes impacts in one’s local area (2010)
Question:
Have you experienced any noteworthy changes or events in your local natural
environment over the past ten years which you think might be due to climate
change?
Results:
35.7% agreed that they had experienced noteworthy changes or events in their local
natural environment due to climatic changes.
24.5% of respondents had directly experienced environmental changes and events
taking place elsewhere in Australia or the world.
45% of respondents reported such direct experiences.
Those who reported having such encounters were
very different to those who had not had such experiences,
i.e., they evidenced very different scores on almost all core
Psychological variables from those without such experience.
What are these changes and events? (2010)
•
Whilst Australia has always been a country of extremes in regard to climate I think
there has been an increase in extreme weather conditions over the past several years
- more wild weather and prolonged severe drought than I can recall from my earlier
years (Sydney, metro, NSW).
• Last year my house was inundated with a flood, which happens only rarely, however
we have had five warnings of floods since then, as the river system is built up with
debris from the impact of people building around it - also more topsoil came down
due to degradation from new forms of farming (Port Macquarie, NSW).
• There are a lot more trees dying. / We are unable to water gardens consistently due
to water restrictions. / The local creeks don't flow for long even after heavy rain. / In
my backyard, the ground is beginning to open up exposing large cracks...due mainly
to drought like conditions and no moisture in the soil (Adelaide, metro, SA).
Is the perceived nexus between
climate change and extreme
weather events so surprising?
More recent headline findings
 Did climate change cause this storm?
 Out Summer of Truth
 Climate change panel warns of severe storms, droughts
and heatwaves on global scale
 Scientists attribute extreme weather to man-made
climate change
 The wet gets wetter, the dry dryer, thanks to climate
change
 Crazy weather shows impact of global warming
 The name of the hurricane is climate change
 Extreme conditions: What’s happening to our weather
Climate change and natural disasters
Q51. Overall, how much do you think climate change is influencing the
frequency and intensity of weather events like storms and droughts?
Not at all (1)
2011%
2010%
A good deal (6)
0
10
20
30
40
A number of interesting questions arise:
 Does prior direct experience with natural disasters
influence belief or acceptance of climate change?
 Does perceived direct experience with an environmental
event or change associated with climate change
influence belief or acceptance of climate change?
 Does this depend upon the nature of that experience
and encounter? – and the individual?
 And what about virtual exposure and experience?
Summer of Disasters 2010/2011
Direct experience with disasters
comparison (2010)
Number of times respondents experienced a natural
disaster event based on the past 12 months (2011)
Cyclone
Bushfire
Drought
Flood
Other
Freq
%
Freq
%
Freq
%
Freq
%
Freq
%
Experienced the event
on one occasion
293
6.7
148
3.4
250
5.7
752
17.3
77
1.8
Experienced the event
twice
74
1.7
28
.6
21
.5
158
3.6
23
.5
Experienced the event
three times
20
.5
7
.2
6
.1
29
.7
11
.2
Experienced the event
four times
4
.09
6
.1
0
-
9
.2
7
.2
Experienced the event
five times or more
1
.02
3
.07
2
.05
7
.2
8
.2
Personally significant extreme weather or natural
disaster situations (2011)
 Participants were asked several questions based on the most personally
significant extreme weather or natural disaster situation that they had
experienced .
 Participants were first asked what the event or situation was (openended response option) (n = 2472). A few examples of the type of
responses given:
Cyclone Yasi
Brisbane floods
Bushfires in East Gippsland
Storm/Cyclone/Super Cell at the Gap
Canberra bushfires
The flash floods in Toowoomba and the Lockyer Valley in January 2011
Black Saturday bushfires
Drought, the dam levels in South East Queensland dropped to a very low
level. Then we had the floods
Respondents were then asked to indicate when this event took place
Frequency
%
Happened in the past 12 months
852
45
Happened 1 to 10 years ago
678
36
Happened 11 to 20 years ago
166
9
Happened more than 20 years ago
196
10
Total
1892
Impact of events (2011)
Response
Frequency
%
Was a member of your family, or someone close
to you, physically impacted by the disaster (e.g.,
physically injured, trapped, cut-off from others
for a period of time?
Yes
679
35.8
No
1219
64.2
Were you physically injured in the disaster?
Yes
29
1.5
No
1871
98.5
Did you need financial assistance from others
because of hardships caused by the disaster?
Yes
307
16.2
No
1590
83.8
Were you involved in community recovery after
the disaster (e.g., volunteer at an emergency
shelter, clean-up efforts, providing support,
emergency worker)?
Yes
676
35.6
No
1224
64.4
Was your home damaged in the disaster?
Yes
409
21.5
No
1492
78.5
Yes
202
10.6
No
1696
89.4
Did you at any point think that you were going
to die?
Climate change variables in relation to direct experience with
a natural disaster warning or disaster impact situation (2010)
Range
N
Yes
No
1157
1939
d
Objective knowledge
-7-10
2.8
2.6
Belief in climate change
4-20
15.8
15.9
Climate change concern
7-32
23.3
23.4
Risk perception
5-30
19.0
18.9
Distress
7-42
22.2
21.7
Self-efficacy
5-28
18.5
18.3
Personal responsibility
4-20
12.7
12.7
Adaptation
8-48
29.8***
28.0
.22
Behaviour
0-15
6.6**
6.3
.12
Note: Asterisks are placed to the right of the higher group mean. Differences between means are
expressed as: **p < .01. ***p < .001.
Relationships between nature and extent of prior disaster
experience with other climate change variables (2010)
1
1. Prior disaster
exp
2. Belief in CC
3. CC concern
4. Risk appraisal
5. Distress
6. Self-efficacy
7. Responsibility
8. Adaptation
9. Behaviour
10. Residential
exposure
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
.07*
.12**
.19**
.16**
.14**
.13**
.20**
.15**
.24**
.82**
.60**
.62**
.60**
.61**
.59**
.34**
.38**
.73**
.78**
.73**
.76**
.73**
.44**
.46**
.71**
.59**
.57**
.64**
.37**
.45**
.66**
.68**
.78**
.42**
.42**
.79**
.69**
.49**
.38**
.69**
.48**
.36**
.53**
.46**
.26**
Climate change variables in relation to direct experience with
climate change impacts either in Australia or overseas (2010)
Range
N
Yes
No
1936
1702
d
Objective knowledge
-7-10
3.7***
1.9
.64
Belief in climate change
4-20
17.8***
14.4
.91
Climate change concern
7-32
26.5***
20.8
.98
Risk perception
5-30
21.5***
16.9
.86
Distress
7-42
25.5***
19.0
.86
Self-efficacy
5-28
20.4***
16.8
.76
Personal responsibility
4-20
14.1***
11.6
.76
Adaptation
8-48
32.9***
25.2
.99
Behaviour
0-15
7.3***
5.7
.55
Note: Asterisks are placed to the right of highest group mean. Differences between means are
expressed as: **p < .01. ***p < .001.
Theoretical perspectives/explanations
 Direct experience, prior experience
 Experiential learning, environmental education
 Risk perception and appraisal
 Sense making, causal attributions
 Confirmation seeking, motivated reasoning
 Uncertainty reduction, resolution
 Actual/virtual exposure and experience cross -validation
 Transformative encounter/experience
Direct experience with climate change, 2011.
 45% of respondents reported having a direct encounter with changes in
the natural environment which they thought might be due to climate
change in 2011, or describing such an experience and encounter.
 Respondents were asked to provide additional information about this
experience:
 What the environmental change was, and why it held
significance or meaning?
 The thoughts and/or feelings they had at the time they
experienced the event
If you have experienced any environmental change or event over the past few years
that has made a strong impression on you, can you tell us what this was, and why it was
of particular meaning for you?
Response categories
Frequency
%
Natural disasters (e.g., floods, drought, bushfires, cyclones,
earthquakes)
258
35.4
Seasonal changes (e.g., changing weather patterns, colder,
hotter, humidity)
220
30.2
Extreme weather (e.g., heatwaves, storms, hailstones, dust
storms)
86
11.8
Environmental changes (e.g., flora, fauna, erosion,
degradation)
60
8.2
Water scarcity
52
7.1
Increased rainfall
25
3.4
Sea level rise
7
.9
Instability/unpredictability
6
.8
Ice melt, loss of snow
5
.7
Increased pollution
4
.5
Volcanic eruptions
4
.5
More rapid change
2
.3
Can you briefly tell us what you thoughts and or feelings you had at the time you saw or
experienced this particular environmental change or event?
Response categories
Frequency
%
Concern, worry
102
20.0
Sad
65
12.7
Pessimism, helpless, hopelessness
49
9.6
Shock, upset, horrified
41
8.0
Scared, fear
36
7.0
Awe, dread, strange
32
6.3
Wanting to do something
29
5.7
Realisation
24
4.7
Uncertainty
23
4.5
Frustration
14
2.7
Loss
14
2.7
Distress
14
2.7
Anger, annoyed
14
2.7
Indifferent
13
2.5
Empathy
12
2.3
Due to natural cycles
9
1.7
Adaptation
6
1.2
Vulnerability
4
.8
Disbelief
3
.6
Resignation
3
.6
Aware
3
.6
Direct quotes
 The increase in the number of severe weather occurrences, such as the bushfires,
cyclones and floods in Australia, flooding in Pakistan and other Asian regions, and
tornadoes in the US have made me realise that these are not isolated events and are
connected. I have not been affected directly from these, but seeing the images on
television and in print does cause me concern about human impact on the planet. There's
also the indirect impact of higher food prices.
 Sadness, distress, and a yearning to be able to put it all right (Female, Sydney metro, 35
years).
 I am from the country, seeing the severity of the droughts and the effect that they have on
the land, the farmers and communities is heartbreaking. I now live in the city but still
have ties to the country, but in the city Find it overwhelming the amounts of litter and
pollution and knowing that a large percentage of our waste is going into landfill everyday.
 I find all of these issues stressful. My family all live on the land and have done so for
generations, so i know personally how heartbreaking it is for them and myself seeing the
devastating effects of climate change. Not being able to plant crops to due to lack of
water and having to scrape together enough money to feed and water stock only to lose
them because it is never enough (Female, rural NSW, 47 years).
 The cyclone in Queensland in January. The speed and ferocity of the destruction with
such little warning was particularly sobering.
 Horror, fear, sadness, need for action (Male, Melbourne metro, 23 years)
 The nature of the soil has changed significantly in my local area... as a kid in a Australia
when we used to take holidays at the beach we used to get excited the closer we would get
as when we stopped for breaks we could see the soil getting sandier. Were I live now (for
the past 30 years) I have noticed the soil change to be more like "close to the beach" soil.
•
•
•
I do live relatively close to the beach, but the soil change is significant to me. Soil which
used to be black and rich is now sandy and thin Over the past few years, like when the
drought broke here in Feb 2010, the soil reverted back to it's normal state for a few
weeks... then it dried out again.
I thought that scientists who were warning us about global warming were right and I felt
that I had direct evidence of it right in front of me (Male, Canberra, 55 years).
Water scarcity
Feel sad and responsible for it (Male, Victoria – rural, 51 years)
So what do we make of all this?
 Is the answer found in the nature of this encounter and experience, and/or
does it relate to the nature and self-selection of those individuals interpreting
and reporting such experiences?
 Is seeing believing or is believing seeing?
Are encounters with climate change a matter of seeing
is believing, or believing is seeing - or indeed both, with
these processes occurring actually and virtually?
 It appears to be an interactive and cross-validating
process involving both,
 But also more than both for many people, who appear
to be experiencing genuinely transformative
encounters with directly experienced and profoundly
significant events and changes in their known natural
environment,
 With this encounter then catalysing not only prior
virtual exposure and experience, but own motivation,
issue engagement, and psychological adaptation.
Antecedents of Climate Change Behaviours
(.80)
Concern
.89***
.03
(.48)
Risk
Perception
.07*
.70***
.
Belief
.71***
(.51)
Distress
.52***
.43***
(.83)
Adaptation
(.33)
Behaviour
.31***
.68***
.12
(.46)
Self-efficacy
-.15
.25***
.73***
(.53)
Responsibility
Hypothesised Model of Antecedents of Climate Change Behaviours (Standardised parameter estimates on arrow-head lines, ***p <.001. *p <.05. Percentage of
variance explained in parentheses, in spheres).
The relationship between personal experience and
belief in the reality of global warming
Myers, T. A., Maibach, E. W., Roser-Renouf, C., Akerlof, K., & Leiserowitz, A. A. (in press). The relationship between personal
experienced and belief in the reality of global warming. Nature Climate Change.
Implications
 Is fostering such direct, personal experiences a way forward?
 How could this be accomplished?
 Is there merit in yoking disaster preparedness and response to climate change?
 What does this tell us about understandings, risk as feeling, and conventional
wisdom like ‘think globally, act locally?’
Download a copy of the final report
http://www.nccarf.edu.au/publications/public-riskperceptions-second-survey
Additional slides
Psychological Processes that Influence Adaptation to
and Coping with Climate Change
Further examples: respondents’ reported experiences of
environmental changes and events
 “Well during the 50s 60s and 70s gully buster storms came from the sw every afternoon 3pm 5pm and dump 1-2 inch rain and disappear they only occasionally happen now” (Ballina, NSW).
 “I live in bushland and have seen birds nesting and hatching earlier each year, flowers blooming
a whole month earlier, and insects appearing earlier” (Sydney metro, NSW).
 “Weather patterns have changed markedly over the past 20 years in the area in which I live:
Spring arrives earlier and is not as dry (sub-tropical climate); winters (excluding this one) have
been warmer; rainfall during summer has been inconsistent – where once weather could be
fairly predictable it is no longer so” (Sunshine Coast, QLD)
 “I believe the floods and cyclones around are all a huge part of climate change and it's strong
impression it's left is a big fear in me as where our world is going and what will happen to the
environment and those that live in it. This worries me greatly as I fear for what will have to my
children's and there's and so on” (Melbourne metro, VIC)
 “Have not experienced any change – the drought was part of a cycle, and I said at the time –
this too will pass, and it did” (Albury, NSW)
 “Salinity in coastal areas and dune damage. landscape is not as pretty as it was 20 years ago”
(Broom, WA)
•
Sadness, distress, and a yearning to be able to put it all right.
•
It struck me with great force how vulnerable human beings are to the destructive forces in nature, which
cannot be controlled.
•
Made me reflect upon the changing climate. It did get me thinking about where the future is headed
with the climate.
•
I was pretty indifferent about the cyclone at the time but a few houses were damaged so of coarse I feel
a bit sorry for the owners. The Qld floods made me feel anxious and worried for the people effected by
them. I recall turning on the TV in the mornings and things kept getting worse..at the time I was
thinking "this is a big deal" so to speak.
•
Thought this is a sign of things to come
•
Sadness. I believe the divide between rich and poor is getting bigger. The rich making massive a carbon
imprint, yet they expect the poor to take more responsibility.
•
Just despair, feeling compassionate towards people caught up in these situations who have lost their
homes, possessions and sometimes family and friends also.
Respondents were asked to recall any environmental change or
event over the past few years that had made a strong impression
on them (n = 2443)
•
There has been an increasing level of extremes with seasons; hotter summers and colder winters, along
with more ferocity in storm characteristics over the past ten years. I directly associate this with the
disruption of oceanic cooling/warming currents due to glacial and polar ice melting at an exponential
rate caused by greenhouse gas
•
Bushfires two years ago, The Kinglake fires were very close to the hurstbridge, St. Andrews area and the
smoke could be seen from my home. We know people in those areas and the vision on TV was
horrendous.
•
The increase in the number of severe weather occurrences, such as the bushfires, cyclones and floods in
Australia, flooding in Pakistan and other Asian regions, and tornadoes in the US have made me realise
that these are not isolated events and are connected. I have not been affected directly from these, but
seeing the images on television and in print does cause me concern about human impact on the planet.
There's also the indirect impact of higher food prices.
•
Difficulty in finding tad poles for my daughter to watch grow into frogs
•
Cyclones and flooding in various parts of the world (including floods in Australia) have had a strong
impression on me, due to their destructive impact on human life.
•
Our Brisbane Dams have been nearly empty for a long time and we had to be very careful with water.
Because of the dry grounds our concrete around our house has cracked.
If your level of concern about climate change has
changed, could you briefly explain why and how?
Some respondents’ comments.
 “I am reading more negative reports than positive regarding climate change” (Perth
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metro, WA)
“The recent drought followed by significant local rain and flooding has caused me to
be more aware of what is happening to the environment” (Mildura, Vic)
“My personal level of concern has not changed but it is worrying to me that the
wider community level of concern seems to have significantly decreased (‘green
fatigue’)” (Brisbane, Qld)
“I now believe that climate change is part of very long cycle over thousands of years
or more. That it has all happened before” (Gold Coast, Qld)
“Because of the increase in the number of natural disasters” (Sydney metro, NSW)
“I am more aware of change and can now see evidence that it is happening” (Hobart,
Tas)
“After discussions on friends and forums and reading differing opinions, I believe
that climate change is a natural occurrence and weather pattern. / We don't have
enough weather records to look back over hundreds or thousands of years to check
weather cycles and solar patterns. / I believe there is too much pollution and waste
in general, but I don't believe carbon is affecting climate change” (Brisbane, Qld)
• Already the day after tomorrow
 Climate change behind rise in weather disasters
 Weather gone wild
 The 2003 heatwave in France: Dangerous climate
change here and now