Transcript Climate Change and Health - Eastern Africa GEOHealth Hub

Climate change and Health
Presentation for:
GEOHub Workshop
Kampala, April 22, 2015
Jonathan Patz, Professor & Director
(2015 Fulbright Scholar, US State Dept - Ethiopia)
Temperature Change: 2055
Temperature Change RCP 4.5
in 2046-2065: June – August
Temperature Change RCP 4.5
in 2046-2065: December - February
By 2055: North
CentralAfrica,
Africathe
warms
Sahara,
by:
and
1.5° South
- 3° C in
Africa
Junewarm
– August
by:
1.5° -2°2°- C3°inC December
in June – August
– February
1.5° - 3° C in December – February
June - August
December - February
Precipitation Change: 2055
Precipitation Change RCP 4.5
in 2046-2065: April – September
Precipitation Change RCP 4.5
in 2046-2065: October - March
By 2055: Wet areas get wetter,
dry areas get drier. But, there is
weak consensus among models as
to whether any location in Africa
will be wetter or drier.
April September
October - March
Year to Year Variability of Annual minimum Temperature over
Ethiopia expressed in temperature difference compared to
1971-2000 normal.
Courtesy: Kinfe Hailemariam, Natl. Met. Agency
Climate sensitive health impacts
Each year:
- Undernutrition kills 3.1 million
- Malaria kills over 600,000
- Diarrhea kills almost 600,000 children
- Extreme weather events kill tens of
thousands
These, and others, are highly sensitive to a
changing climate
5 | Climate change and health diplomacy
HEALTH EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
CLIMATE
CHANGE
Temperature Rise 1
Sea level Rise 2
Hydrologic Extremes
1
2
1-4°C by yr. 2100
50 cm “ “
IPCC estimates
Patz, 1998
Urban Heat Island
Effect
Heat Stress
Cardiorespiratory failure
Air Pollution
Respiratory diseases, e.g.,
COPD & Asthma
Vector-borne Diseases
Water-borne Diseases
Water resources & food
supply
Environmental
Refugees
Malaria
Dengue
Encephalitis
Hantavirus
Rift Valley Fever
Cholera
Cyclospora
Cryptosporidiosis
Campylobacter
Leptospirosis
Malnutrition
Diarrhea
Toxic Red Tides
Forced Migration
Overcrowding
Infectious diseases
Human Conflicts
Climate Variability and Change
TEMPERATURE
Calculus of extremes
Climate change can involve change in the average, or the
spread around the average (standard deviation), or both.
A shift of 1 standard
A
shift of 1makes
standard
deviation
a
deviation
makes
a
1 in 40 yr event into
1
406yr
a in
1 in
yrevent
eventinto
a 1 in 6 yr event
Standard deviation
1 in 40 yr high range
A shift in the distribution
of temperatures has a
much larger relative effect
at the extremes than near
the mean.
Projected # of days over 32°C
Average NYC summer
(current) = 13 days
Average summer (204665) = 39 days
32°C
Patz et al. 2014
30-year average monthly mean afternoon
in-shade WBGT (based on IPCC RCPs)
Time trend of in-shade afternoon WBGT for July from
1992 to 2085 at Dire Dawa, Ethiopia, based on five
international climate models for RCP6.0
Baseline 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100
Ebi et al. 2005
Baseline 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100
Ebi et al. 2005
Climate Variability and Change
PRECIPITATION
Water StressAfrica
Courtesy: Paul Block,
UW-Madison
15
Agricultural Impacts: Africa & S. Asia
Source: Knox et al. 2012
•
For Africa, significant
reductions for wheat (-17%),
maize (-5%), sorghum (-15%)
and millet (- 10%).”
• Central Africa less affected
than north & south
• NOTE: estimates ignore
climate “shocks”
(droughts/floods) and plant
pests
In Future, when it
rains…it will pour.
Globally Averaged
U.S. CCSP, 2008
Could Combating Climate
Change be cost-free?
…or even a net gain?
Opportunity at the intersection of:
Health
Energy
Food security
Forest conservation
…Opportunity especially for Africa
From this year’s Lima COP
• “…examination of opportunities with
high mitigation potential, including
those with adaptation, health, and
sustainable development cobenefits”
We are already thinking about leveraged
GEOHub projects
Universities-wide initiative ??
to switch from wood stoves to those
powered by hydro, wind, solar, or biogas –
women’s health, forest protection and
climate resilience
African Cities Matter for
Climate Change
Urbanization and Emissions
Source: UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs – Population Division
World Resources Institute – Climate Analysis Indicators Tool
Diesel smoke and health
• Burning fossil fuels causes local health risks
Co-benefit of 0.7 to 4.7 million deaths/yr.
Reductions in PM pollution in 2030
Shindell….J Schwartz… et al. Science, 2012
• Cost of cleaner
energy:
< $30/ tCO2
• Benefits of cleaner
energy:
• $200*/ tCO2
WHICH NUMBER IS BIGGER???
(* Range: $50 to $380)
For E. Asia, co-benefits are 10 to 70 times greater
West et al. 2013
Can cities in East Africa become the
model for the rest of the continent?
“Bikeable Bahir Dar?”
Ethiopia: Climate-Resilient
Green Economy
December, 2015, in Paris
UN Conference of the Parties (COP 21), “to
establish binding agreements ambitious enough to
limit global warming to 2°C.”