Transcript Health effects of climate change: heat related impacts

Health effects of climate change
Heat related impacts
Dr Clare Heaviside1,2,3
1Air
Pollution and Climate Change Group, Centre for Radiation, Chemical and
Environmental Hazards, Public Health England, Harwell, Oxfordshire
2School
of Geography, Earth and Environment Sciences, University of
Birmingham
3London
School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
[email protected]
(Source: CDC
website)
Climate change often exacerbates an existing health effect
Direct and indirect health impacts of Climate Change
Temperature changes may modify many of these risks
McMichael (2009)
Carbon
emissions
Health
impacts
Patz (2007)
Health Effects of Climate Change in the UK (2012)
• 12 HPA authors
• 10 external authors from 7 UK
research institutions
• 34 internal & external reviewers
(12 from overseas)
• 10 chapters, 240 pages
Methods
• Extensive literature reviews
• New calculations of health impacts
• Quantitative estimates (based on
UKCP09) where possible
• Semi-quantitative or qualitative
estimates
PHE active in research on CC, input
into CCRA, National Adaptation
Programme and others…
Global annual mean temperature - 2015
Combined land-surface air temperature & sea-surface temperature (Met Office)
Hottest years (globally) on record
Increasing likelihood of extreme events
IPCC 2007
Coumou &
Rahmstorf
(2012)
Summer 2003 – European Heatwave
NASA
European mortality during the Heatwave of
August 2003
UNEP
Data from Baden-Wurttemburg, Germany.
Schär & Jendritzky (2004)
“Highest death toll from Natural Hazards in 50 years for Europe”
- United Nations Environment Program (UNEP 2004)
max temp
• Temperatures
reached 38.5oC in
Kent in Aug 2003
• >2,000 excess deaths
in England
• Estimates that
between 21 and 38%
of the excess deaths
were due to the
elevated ozone and
particulate levels
Stedman (2004)
2003 mortality
min temp
Baseline mortality
Daily mortality, London, aged >75yrs
- ozone
- PM10
Johnson et al (2004)
Quantifying the Health Effects of Climate Change
• Difficult to quantify health effects relating to Climate Change
• More likely to study the effects of weather on health
• Example: time series
epidemiology of
temperature effects
• Relate the effects of weather on health to a future climate
Temperature-mortality relationship
A shift in distribution of
temperatures will affect
mortality
Greater risk on very high
temperature days
London summer temperature
Armstong et al. (2010)
Baccini et al. (2008)
1. Projections of temperature related mortality in
the UK for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s
2. Attributing heat related mortality to the Urban
Heat Island intensity: a case study for the West
Midlands, UK
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1. Projections of temperature related mortality in
the UK for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s
2. Attributing heat related mortality to the Urban
Heat Island intensity: a case study for the West
Midlands, UK
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Climate change and temperatures in the UK
Increase in mean
temperatures,
heatwaves likely to
become more
common
(UKCIP)
By 2040, every other
year likely to be as
hot as 2003
Jones (2008)
Towns and cities are usually a few degrees warmer than rural areas –
Urban Heat Island Effect
- Higher population exposure to heat in urban areas
Projections of temperature related mortality in
the UK for the 2000s to 2080s
• Temperature-mortality relationships analysed for each UK region, by age group
• Mortality estimated for baseline decade (2000s) plus modelled projections
• Growth and aging of population included in analysis
Presentation title - edit in Header and Footer
Hajat et al. (2014)
Projections of temperature related mortality in
the UK for the 2000s to 2080s
• In the UK, cold deaths outnumber heat deaths (for now and future)
• The effects of climate change on temperature-related mortality in future
are worse for older age groups:
• Sharp increases in heat related mortality
• Less dramatic decreases in cold related mortality
• Public Health implication is that cold will continue to be a problem,
particularly with ageing population, however, increasing attention
should be given to heat-related impacts.
Presentation title - edit in Header and Footer
1. Projections of temperature related mortality in
the UK for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s
2. Attributing heat related mortality to the Urban
Heat Island intensity: a case study for the West
Midlands, UK
Presentation title - edit in Header and Footer
The Urban Heat Island (UHI)
Why are cities often warmer than the countryside?
Urban materials retain heat
Buildings stop heat getting
radiated to the sky
Lack of moisture and vegetation
Temperatures in cities can be up
to up to 10oC warmer than
surrounding countryside
Effect larger for cloud free, low
wind conditions, and usually more
pronounced at night
Why is the UHI important?
Over half of the world’s population now
reside in cities
urban
Impacts include
Health – respiratory, stroke, heat
exhaustion, death
Increased energy consumption for cooling
Increased greenhouse gases and air
pollutant emissions
rural
Changes to water quality
(United Nations)
Most climate change projections don’t take into account urban surfaces
We may be underestimating future temperature increases in cities
Birmingham and the West Midlands
Birmingham is the UK’s
2nd most populous
city (~1 million)
The West Midlands is the UK’s
2nd most populous urban
conurbation
Urbanisation across the West Midlands
The health impacts of the Urban Heat Island
Clare Heaviside
Modelling configuration
WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) ARW
(Advanced Research WRF) model
4 nested domains
(36 km2, 12 km2, 3 km2 and 1 km2 resolution)
Meteorology: ECMWF ERA-interim reanalysis at 1.5o every
6 hours
Land surface data: USGS (United States Geological
Survey) land use categories
BEP (Building Energy Parameterization) scheme
•Multilayer surface urban physics scheme
(Heaviside et al. 2015)
•3 types of urban classes
•Urban classes specially adapted for Birmingham and the West Midlands
• Simulates the effects of the vertical distribution of heat, momentum and turbulent kinetic
energy throughout the urban canopy layer.
The health impacts of the Urban Heat Island
Clare Heaviside
Modelled Simulations
‘Urban’:
Model is run using 3 detailed
urban land surface categories
to best capture the UHI effect
using the BEP scheme.
‘Rural’:
Model is run by replacing all
urban categories with rural
(grassland/pasture) categories.
A comparison of
temperature between the 2
simulations gives an
indication of the UHI
intensity
Urban Temperature:
‘urban’ model simulation
Snapshot:
11pm, 5th August
2003 (2 metre
temperature)
WH – Wolverhampton
EB – Edgbaston
BC – Birmingham City
Centre
CH – Coleshill
CV – Coventry
The health impacts of the Urban Heat Island
Clare Heaviside
UHI Intensity:
urban – rural experiment
Difference in 2m
temperature
between urban and
rural model runs,
11pm, 5th August
2003
WH – Wolverhampton
EB – Edgbaston
BC – Birmingham City
Centre
CH – Coleshill
CV – Coventry
The health impacts of the Urban Heat Island
Clare Heaviside
Urban – rural experiment:
UHI intensity in city centre
(Heaviside et al. 2015)
Birmingham City Centre:
∆T (urban-rural) = 3.2oC (mean UHI intensity)
∆T (urban-rural) = 5.6oC (max UHI intensity)
The health impacts of the Urban Heat Island
Clare Heaviside
Health Impact Assessment (HIA)
methodology
Aims:
Quantify the effect of the UHI on mortality, and investigate sensitivity of
mortality burdens to population weighting of temperature.
Estimate the potential health impacts of climate change, by including the
UHI intensity as well as the UKCP09 temperature projections.
Calculations:
•
Mortality associated with heat during the 2003 heatwave period
•
The effect of population weighting of temperature on mortality burden
•
Mortality associated with the UHI during this period
•
Mortality associated with Climate Change and UHI for future decades
The health impacts of the Urban Heat Island
Clare Heaviside
Health Impact Assessment results
HIA based on modelled ‘urban’ and ‘rural’ WRF simulations
Population weighted temperature is 1oC higher than geog mean
temperature
The UHI contributed around half (52%) of the total heat related mortality in
the West Midlands during the heatwave of 2003. Heaviside et al. (2016)
MORTALITY
Temperature
metric
‘Urban’ pop
weighted
‘Urban’ geog
mean
‘Rural’
‘Current’
climate
2003 heatwave
Future Climate Projections (without pop
changes)
2020s
2050s
2080s
90
127 (112)
184 (143)
256 (174)
73
105 (92)
159 (124)
229 (155)
43
73 (64)
116 (90)
180 (122)
Health Impact Assessment results
HIA based on modelled ‘urban’ and ‘rural’ WRF simulations, plus climate
change projections
Population weighted temperature is 1oC higher than geog mean
temperature
The UHI contributed around half (52%) of the total heat related mortality in
the West Midlands during the heatwave of 2003. Heaviside et al. (2016)
MORTALITY
Temperature
metric
‘Urban’ pop
weighted
‘Urban’ geog
mean
‘Rural’
‘Current’
climate
2003 heatwave
Future Climate Projections (without pop
growth)
2020s
2050s
2080s
90
138 (125)
200 (159)
278 (192)
73
114 (104)
173 (138)
248 (172)
43
79 (72)
125 (101)
195 (135)
HIA results – climate change
Estimated mortality based on HIA for 2003 heatwave, and for potentially
similar heatwave events projected for 3 future decades, (medium emissions,
with population growth).
Summary of HIA results
•
According to simulations, the effect of urbanisation in the West Midlands was on
average ~3oC, with max ∆T of 7oC during the 2003 heatwave (daily mean T)
•
Population weighting of temperature data resulted in +1oC for the region
•
The 1st-10th August 2003 heatwave was associated with 90 additional deaths in region
•
Around half (47) of these were associated with the UHI intensity
•
Climate projections suggest a similar heatwave in 2080 could result in ~280 deaths
•
Calculations include population growth but assumes no adaptation to heat in future
Implications for HIA methodology:
A HIA based on geographic mean temperature underestimated mortality by 20%
A HIA without urban surfaces (no UHI) underestimated mortality by 52%
To account for all future effects:
include population weighting and UHI as well as climate and population projections
The health impacts of the Urban Heat Island
Clare Heaviside
Thank you
[email protected]
The health impacts of the Urban Heat Island
Clare Heaviside
Bibliography 1/2
Armstrong, B.G., Chalabi, Z., Fenn, B., Hajat, S., Kovats, S., Milojevic, A. and Wilkinson, P. (2010)
Association of mortality with high temperatures in a temperate climate: England and Wales. Journal
of Epidemiology and Community Health.
Baccini, M., Biggeri, A., Accetta, G., Kosatsky, T., Katsouyanni, K., Analitis, A., Anderson, H.R., Bisanti,
L., D'Iippoliti, D., Danova, J., Forsberg, B., Medina, S., Paldy, A., Rabczenko, D., Schindler, C. and
Michelozzi, P. (2008) Heat effects on mortality in 15 European cities. Epidemiology 19(5), 711-719.
Coumou and Rahmstorf (2012) A decade of weather extremes. Nature Climate Change 2, 491–496
Hajat, S., Vardoulakis, S., Heaviside, C. and Eggen, B. (2014) Climate change effects on human health:
projections of temperature-related mortality for the UK during the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. Journal
of Epidemiology & Community Health. 68 (7), 641-648.
Heaviside C., Cai, X.-M., Vardoulakis, S. (2015). The effects of horizontal advection on the Urban Heat
Island in Birmingham and the West Midlands, UK during a heatwave. Quarterly Journal of the Royal
Meteorological Society. 141, 1429–1441.
Heaviside C., Vardoulakis, S., Cai, X.-M.(2016) The contribution of the Urban Heat Island to heat related
mortality during the 2003 heatwave and for projected future climate in the West Midlands, UK.
Journal of Environmental Health. In press
IPCC (2007). Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.
Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY,
USA.,.
The health impacts of the Urban Heat Island
Clare Heaviside
Bibliography 2/2
Johnson, H., Kovats, R.S., McGregor, G., Stedman, J., Gibbs, M., Walton, H., Cook, L. and Black, E.
(2005) The impact of the 2003 heat wave on mortality and hospital admissions in England. Health
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Jones, G.S., Stott, P.A. and Christidis, N. (2008) Human contribution to rapidly increasing frequency of
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Stedman, J.R. (2004) The predicted number of air pollution related deaths in the UK during the August
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UNEP (2004) United Nations Environment Program. Impacts of Summer 2003 Heat Wave in Europe,
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Vardoulakis, S. and Heaviside, C. [eds.] (2012) Health Effects of Climate Change in the UK 2012 –
Current evidence, public health recommendations and research gaps. Health Protection Agency,
Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards, UK. ISBN:978-0-85951-723-2.
Temperature related mortality in future
Heat deaths
Sharp increases in heat related mortality in future decades, especially
for older age groups
Temperature related mortality in future
Cold deaths
Decreases in cold related mortality in future decades, although
reductions not as sharp as increase in heat related mortality
See also Hajat et al. (2014)