Transcript Development of a MLM Climate Change Strategy

Mbombela Climate Change Workshop 2
5 November 2015
Civic Centre Hall, Mbombela
Workshop Agenda
ITEM
TIME
Chair
9:00-9:15
Deputy MM & Warrick
Stewart
2) Workshop objectives & project overview
9:15-9:25
Warrick Stewart
3) Summary of Phase 1 Policy Workshop
9:25-9:40
Victoria Braham
4) Brief overview of Draft Policy Document
9:40-10:00
Paul Jorgensen
5) Case studies of local climate change responses
10:00-11:00
Various
6) Tea
11:00-11:15
All participants
7) MLM “Vulnerability Framework”
11:15-11:30
Paul Jorgensen
8) Strategy development
11:30-13:30
All participants
9) Way forward
13:30-14:00
Warrick Stewart
10) Close and Lunch
14:00-15:00
All participants
1) Welcome and introductions
Introduction to the Vulnerability Framework
Mbombela Local Municipality – Climate Change Strategy
Workshop
5 November 2015
Civic Centre Hall, Mbombela
Purpose of this Presentation
 Provide a high level overview of climate trends, future climate
scenarios for the region
 Highlight the municipal services that could be affected by a
changing climate
 Provide an indication of the vulnerable sectors and
communities within the MLM
 Source further information (VA is in development)
Climate Trends – Temperature
 Mean annual temperatures have increased by at least 1.5
times the observed global average of 0.65°C
 Maximum (Strongest Sep – Nov) and minimum (Dec-Feb
and Jun – Aug) temperatures show significant increases
 High temperature extremes have increased significantly in
frequency,
and
low
temperatures
significantly in frequency (Jun – Nov)
have
decreased
Climate Trends – Rainfall
 High interannual and decadle rainfall variability
 Tendency towards decrease in total precipitation (Mar –
May)
 Fewer number of rain days (Dec – May)
 Tendency towards an increase in the intensity of rainfall
events (Dec – Feb) and increased dry spell duration
Climate change scenarios
 “All modelling approaches project warming trends until the
end of this century, but most approaches project the
possibility of both drying and wetting trends in almost all
parts of South Africa” (uncertainty with rainfall predictions)
Climate change scenarios
•Future predictions from the LTAS for the region
Climate change scenarios per sectors
 LTAS phase one and two sector specific reports will be
used to inform risks and opportunities
 Including various other sources of information from DEA,
DWS, WRC, DAFF, ARC, academia etc,
Climate change scenarios
 What types of impacts are likely?
 Reduced water resource availability
 Higher frequency of flooding and drought events
 Intense weather events
 Heatwaves
 Higher maximum and minimum temperatures
What makes up the MLM
 2013 -2014 National land use and cover
 Thicket/dense bush, woodland, open bush
 Plantations
 Urban
 Cultivation commercial
 Cultivation subsistence
Orange – Plantation
Maroon – Cultivated
Yellow/purple – urban
Light purple – cultivated
subsistence
Economic sectors
• Economic sectors contributing to the GDP
Sector
Sector Contribution to economy (%)
Agriculture
4%
Mining
3%
Manufacturing
17%
Utilities
2%
Construction
3%
Trade Sector
13%
Transport & communication
10%
Finance and business
22%
Services
9%
Economic growth sectors
 2015 MLM LED Strategy Review: sectors to contribute to
future economic growth
 Agriculture: improved access to market and increased inputs to agriprocessing
 Manufacturing: expand existing industries and develop niche
industries to promote exports
 Trade: grow regional trade hub
 Tourism: promote tourism assists
 Construction: MU and ICC developments
Economic growth sectors
 2015 MLM LED Strategy Review: sectors to contribute to
future economic growth – Climate change links
 Agriculture: resource availability, transport links, plant physiology
 Manufacturing: resource availability, transport links, green economy
opportunities
 Trade: transport, green economy opportunities
 Tourism: biodiversity, transport links, resource availability
 Construction: knowledge generation and sharing opportunities
Social indicators
 MLM has an estimated 612 927 people and 170 544
households (93 % formal, 5% informal)
 22% of households have no access to piped water
 13% of population have no income (2011) (R1 – R4800 =
4.9%)
 10% households with no access to electricity
 593km tarred roads and 2005km gravel roads

Social indicators
 Morning peak, 80% of person trips are in public transport (2
hours daily from home to work)
 33 % individuals have a matric (aged 20+)
 77.3% settlements classified as tribal/traditional
Potentially vulnerable areas, sectors and
groups
 Marginalized groups
 Subsistence farmers and the rural poor
 Low lying areas
 Forestry
 Peri-urban settlements
 Informal settlements
 Agriculture (commercial and subsistence)
Potential vulnerable areas and sectors
 Marginalized groups
•MLM has 6613 people registered with disabilities, most of whom are
suffering extreme poverty.
•22359 people are over the age of 65 and considered to be elderly.
•High HIV/AIDS prevalence
•39% of all households in the MLM are headed up by females
•Vulnerable to the effects of climate change, because they have the
lowest resilience capacities, and little means of overcoming this
without focused response strategy and planning.
Potential vulnerable areas and sectors
 Subsistence farmers and the rural poor
 Over 77% of Mbombela’s settlements are tribal/traditional
 Rural communities are involved in subsistence farming (21%
Agricultural households)
 Dependence on rain for food production makes the impacts of
drought so dramatic and widespread in the rural areas.
 Lack of service and transport infrastructure in the rural parts of the
MLM hampers access to market or support
Potential vulnerable areas and sectors
 Low lying settlements
 39% houses fall within flood lines.
 Both formal and informal settlements
 47 000 households in rural areas are without radio communication
system coverage to alert the unit during disasters
Potential vulnerable areas and sectors
 Urban/Peri-urban settlements eg. between Kanyamazane
and Nsikazi.
 Significant peri-urban area (77.3% classified as tribal/traditional) is
largely a result of urban migration, traditional and historical land
systems.
 Compounded existing legacy and socio-economic issues including
distance/time to work, unemployment, water access, housing and
sanitation supply
Potential vulnerable areas and sectors
 White River/Kabokweni
 Frequent and extended water shortages, particularly during the dry
season.
 The service demand in the area, for over 10 years is thought to have
exceeded the supply by as much as 30%
 Area is particularly vulnerable to increased variations in future
rainfall patterns and drought
Potential vulnerable areas and sectors
 Commercial Agricultural Sector
 Commercial
farming:
Increasing
irrigation,
fuel,
fertiliser,
mechanisation and genetically modified seed inputs.
 Single-variety crops at risk, (new pests and pathogens, soil
composition changes etc.)
 Risk to both the local economy and food security.
Potential vulnerable areas and sectors
 Forestry Sector
 Nearly all in MLM are non-indigenous plantations (wattle, pine and
eucalypts).
 Non-indigenous plantations can lead to competition for water
resources and would be vulnerable to water .
Way forward
 On all of the tables there is a map, please think of the
information presented here to assist in identifying vulnerable
hotspots
 Rapid vulnerability assessment to be included in the strategy
document
 Sharing of information
Questions or comments?
Contact information
Stakeholder liaison
Victoria Braham
[email protected]
011 441 1111
Workshop Agenda
ITEM
TIME
Chair
9:00-9:15
Deputy MM & Warrick
Stewart
2) Workshop objectives & project overview
9:15-9:25
Warrick Stewart
3) Summary of Phase 1 Policy Workshop
9:25-9:40
Victoria Braham
4) Brief overview of Draft Policy Document
9:40-10:00
Paul Jorgensen
5) Case studies of local climate change responses
10:00-11:00
Various
6) Tea
11:00-11:15
All participants
7) MLM “Vulnerability Framework”
11:15-11:30
Paul Jorgensen
8) Strategy development
11:30-13:30
All participants
9) Way forward
13:30-14:00
Warrick Stewart
10) Close and Lunch
14:00-15:00
All participants
1) Welcome and introductions
Development of a MLM Climate Change Strategy
Sector-based small group strategy session
Development of a MLM Climate Change Strategy
Sector-based small group strategy session:
1) Planning (Building Codes, Land Use Planning, Human Settlements)
2) Local Economic Development (LED), Manufacturing, Industry (incl. processing), Tourism
3) Agriculture and Forestry
4) Transport, Roads, Stormwater, Water & Sanitation
5) Energy, Electricity & Air Quality
6) Disaster Management & Emergency Services
7) Parks, Conservation, Waste Management, Community & Health Services
Development of a MLM Climate Change Strategy
Sector-based small group strategy sessions:
•
Identify key actions to address climate change risks and capitalise on opportunities
•
Identify priority actions
•
Determine if short, medium or long term actions, or all
•
Identify if actions can be linked to existing plans, projects, programmes, tools, processes
•
Identify responsible parties for implementation and potential partners/collaborators
•
On the provided map and key sheet, document priority areas of risk / or for implementation
Development of a MLM Climate Change Strategy
SECTORS:
PARTICIPANTS (PLEASE LIST YOUR NAMES):
Mark with an “X” where appropriate
ACTIONS
Current Future
action action
Short term
Medium term
(1 year)
(2-5 years)
Long term
(5+ years)
PRIORITY? YES/NO
RESPONSIBLE PARTIES
Development of a MLM Climate Change Strategy
Sector-based small group strategy sessions:
•
Identify key actions to address climate change risks and capitalise on opportunities
•
Identify priority actions
•
Determine if short, medium or long term actions, or all
•
Identify if actions can be linked to existing plans, projects, programmes, tools, processes
•
Identify responsible parties for implementation and potential partners/collaborators
•
On the provided map and key sheet, document priority areas of risk / or for implementation
Development of a MLM Climate Change Strategy
Sector-based small group strategy sessions:
•
Determine time-frames for implementation, responsible parties, links with current plans/tools
•
Once captured all actions, prioritise them
•
Consider insights gained from past, current and potential future challenges and climate-related events
(e.g. floods, drought, fire, traffic congestion, air pollution etc.)
•
Please capture your group’s inputs as you work on them i.e. capture an action before discussing the
next one
Questions or comments?
Workshop Agenda
ITEM
TIME
Chair
9:00-9:15
Deputy MM & Warrick
Stewart
2) Workshop objectives & project overview
9:15-9:25
Warrick Stewart
3) Summary of Phase 1 Policy Workshop
9:25-9:40
Victoria Braham
4) Brief overview of Draft Policy Document
9:40-10:00
Paul Jorgensen
5) Case studies of local climate change responses
10:00-11:00
Various
6) Tea
11:00-11:15
All participants
7) MLM “Vulnerability Framework”
11:15-11:30
Paul Jorgensen
8) Strategy development
11:30-13:30
All participants
9) Way forward
13:30-14:00
Warrick Stewart
10) Close and Lunch
14:00-15:00
All participants
1) Welcome and introductions
Way Forward
• SRK to draft minutes from the workshop and circulate,
including presentations
• MLM reviewing draft Policy until end November
• SRK will circulate revised draft policy to stakeholders for
comment during December 2015 and January 2016
• Final policy to be submitted to MLM council for approval in
mid-February or March
Way Forward
• SRK to develop draft strategy, based on stakeholder inputs
• SRK to finalise draft strategy for MLM review, stakeholder
comment and then council-approval during 2nd half of 2016
• SRK to organise workshop for implementation plan phase for
2nd half of 2016
• Ongoing opportunity for stakeholder input into process
Thank you for your
attendance and input!
Contact information
Stakeholder liaison
Victoria Braham
[email protected]
011 441 1111