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PROGRESS REPORT March 2010- March 2011 Biodiversity Scenarios A synthesis and assessment of projections of 21st century changes in biodiversity and associated ecosystem services based on an analysis of a broad range of existing models, experiments and observations Leadley et al. 2010 CBD TS50 http://gbo3.cbd.int, Pereira, Leadley et al. 2010 Science Lead Authors Paul Leadley, Université Paris-Sud 11, France DIVERISITAS bioDISCOVERY co-chair Henrique Miguel Pereira, Universidade de Lisboa, Portugal Rob Alkemade, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Netherlands Vânia Proença , Universidade de Lisboa, Portugal Jörn Scharlemann, UNEP-WCMC, UK Matt Walpole, UNEP-WCMC, UK Contributing Authors John Agard, The University of The West Indies, Trinidad and Tobago Miguel Araújo, Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales, Spain Andrew Balmford, University of Cambridge, UK Patricia Balvanera, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico Oonsie Biggs, Stockholm University, Sweden Laurent Bopp, Institute Pierre Simon Laplace, France William Cheung, University of British Columbia, Canada Philippe Ciais, Laboratory for Climate Sciences and the Environment, France David Cooper, CBD Secretariat, Canada Joanna C. Ellison, University of Tasmania, Australia Juan Fernandez, Universite Paris-Sud XI, France Eric Gilman, Global Biodiversity Information Facility Secretariat, Denmark Sylvie Guenette, University of British Columbia, Canada Bernard Hugueny, Muséum National d’Histoire Naturelle, France George Hurtt, University of New Hampshire Henry P. Huntington, USA Michael Jennings, University of Idaho, USA Fabien Leprieur, Muséum National d’Histoire Naturelle, France Corinne Le Quéré, University of East Anglia, UK Georgina Mace, Imperial College, UK Cheikh Mbow, Université Cheikh Anta Diop, Senegal Kieran Mooney, CBD Secretariat Aude Neuville, European Commission, Belgium Thierry Oberdorf, Muséum National d’Histoire Naturelle, France Carmen Revenga, The Nature Conservancy, Spain James C. Robertson, The Nature Conservancy, Spain Patricia Rodrigues, Universidade de Lisboa, Portugal Juan Carlos Rocha Gordo, Stockholm University, Sweden Hisashi Sato, Japan Agency Marine Earth Science & Technology, Japan Bob Scholes, Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, South Africa Mark Stafford-Smith, CSIRO, Australia Ussif Rashid Sumaila, University of British Columbia, Canada Pablo A. Tedescco, Muséum National d’Histoire Naturelle, France Feb 2010 - Trondheim Conference on Biodiversity, an encounter between CBD delegates & scientists. Trondheim, Norway. A Steiner, Exec. Dir. UNEP March 2010 - Pre-COP 10 meeting of the CBD. Nagoya, Japan. May 2010 - Official launch of the Global Biodiversity Outlook 3 (GBO3) Nairobi, Kenya. M Silva, Brazilian Minister of Environment October 2010 • Presentation of GBO3 • Presentation to launch the "Rio Conventions' Ecosystems and Climate Change Pavilion”… T Lovejoy, Dir. Heinz Center GBO3 Follow-up • EU-COST “HARMBIO” project funded – COST action to harmonize data and scenarios of biodiversity and ecosystem services – Led by J. Scharlemann UNEP/WCMC • “Planet under Pressure”, London 2012 - Tipping-points session proposal M. Williams (Global Environment Facility), A. Duraiappah (IHDP), P. Leadley (DIVERSITAS) • Educational package for tipping-points – P. Leadley • Paper on tipping-points in preparation • Collaboration with German research community on tipping-points follow-up … TRY/BBS workshop March 25-29, 2011, Paris TRY: Refining Plant Functional Classifications for Earth System Modelling (www.try-db.org) BBS: Advanced prediction of Biome Boundary Shifts in regional and global dynamic vegetation models Co-organizers: Sandra Dìaz, George Hurtt, Jens Kattge, Sandra Lavorel, Paul Leadley, Heike Lischke, Colin Prentice, Hisashi Sato, Christian Wirth DIVERSITAS, IGBP, MPI-Jena, GIS-Climat, French FRB, UK QUEST Linking global change impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services at regional and global scales Both “biodiversity” (e.g., GBO3, TEEB) and “biogeochemical” (e.g., IPCC) assessments are focusing on functional types / habitat changes / vegetation type changes as the key to understanding global change impacts Species GBO2 (dose-response) MA (species-area) etc. Functional Groups / Traits Habitats / Vegetation Type GBO3, TEEB, IPCC, MA, etc. Ecosystem Function / Services and economic valuation Global change TRY: towards a unified global database of plant traits - DIVERSITAS, IGBP, MPI-Jena, GIS-Climat, French FRB, UK QUEST (Kattge et al. 2011 Global Change Biology) All plants Trees Needle-leaved evergreen trees Scots pine Specific Leaf Area Leaf Nitrogen Content TRY/BBS Follow-up • BBS Migration project – H. Sato, H. Lischke, P. Leadley • BBS Fire project – D. Bachelet, D. Morton, P. Leadley • Paper on BBS in preparation • “Planet under Pressure”, London 2012 – “TRY” session proposal • Push to get several “TRY” modeling projects ready for publication in 2011-2012 • Making links with other trait programs (TRAITNET, E. Garnier, etc.) • Searching for additional funding (French Foundation for Research on Biodiversity, French ANR DIVGRASS project, …) • And of course looking towards IPBES Building a strong support base in France Programme Phare: Modélisation et scénarios de la biodiversité ‘Humboldt’ project Workshop "Eco-evolutionary approaches to understanding and predicting the response of species and ecosystems to climate change" – August 2010, Kyushu, Japan – bioGENESIS & bioDISCOVERY Next workshop planned in Montreal, 2012 (A. Gonzalez, funding?) Workshop Novel Models for Biodiversity and ES Scenarios Brainstorming meeting June 2011, Portugal M. Araujo, P. Leadley, I. Chuine, W. Thuiller Contributions to GEO-BON (C. Krug) People • Cornelia Krug has been renewed as the science officer for bioDISCOVERY. • Urgent need to renew SC bioDISCOVERY - see nominations • bioDISCOVERY “office” be hiring two post-docs for scientific and technical assitance part-time on bioDISCOVERY projects (TRY / BBS) Laboratoire d’Ecologie, Systématique et Evolution TRY/BBS workshop - Cape Town - Oct. 2009 BBS - Key needs for improving regional and global vegetation models: • “Biodiversity” - more plant functional types - trait-based modeling -adding variance to means, etc. • Dispersal and establishment • Disturbance regimes - Forestry - Grazing - Fire and fire control • Mortality • Validation Mega-Database TRY DIVERSITAS – IGBP - AIMES – GLP – QUEST– MPG FET SID Fang Chapin ZLTP Reich BROT Wright Glopnet Craine ECOCRAFT Garnier WoodDensity Lavorel KewGardens Kurokawa CEDAR-CREEK CORDOBASE Cornelissen BIOPOP Higgins RAINFOR Soussana ECOQUA Penuelas DIVERSUS Shipley BiolFlor Chave VISTA LEDA Swaine currently 2.2 millionTRY trait entries for 62.000 plant species Modeling component of TRY Currently >20 proposals to use data from the TRY database ORCHIDEE-N Zaehle, Kattge C-N Dynamics JSBACH Zaehle, Kattge, Knorr, Wirth, Reick, Raddatz Plant water balance, Acclimation of PS and Respiration, C-N ED-JULES Fisher, Woodward, Prentice Biome-shifts JULES Sitch Plant Physiology TRY TRICYCLE van Bodegom, Brovkin et al. Trait based PFTs SPITFIRE Spessa et al. Fire Dynamics ORCHIDEE Viovy et al. Parameter Evaluation aDGVM Higgins et al. Forest-Savanna Boundary Plans for 2010-2011 Global Biodiversity Outlook 3: • Publication of the GBO3 Report & GBO3 Biodiversity Scenarios Technical report - 10 May 2010 • Proposed “GBO3” side event - May 2010, CBD SBSTTA 14, Nairobi • Two papers on the GBO3 biodiversity scenarios findings are in preparation Workshop on "Evolutionary responses to global change" - August 2009, Japan – bioGENESIS / bioDISCOVERY. Workshop on “Biodiversity Assessement Methods” – October 2010, Europe (tbc) Workshop on “Novel modeling approaches to predicting biodiversity response to global change” - 3rd or 4th quarter 2010, Spain. Workshop - TRY/BBS follow-up - 4th quarter 2010, France. - PROJECT / PRODUCT ORIENTED – New important sponsor is the FRB (French Foundation for Biodiversity Research) Etc… NOW Plant Trait DB 1 Plant Trait DB 1 Ancillary DB n FUTURE Plant Trait DB 2 Plant Trait DB 2 Plant Trait DB 3 Plant Trait DB 1 Plant Trait DB 2 Plant Trait DB 3 Animal Trait DB n Plant Trait DB 3 Semantic Web TRY Database (intelligent search engine) TRY Database Manager (MPI) Extraction, quality control, etc. Ontology “Filter” Concepts, Nomenclature, etc. Global Trait Portal User User Limited access Free access data User Query NOW: TraitNet & “CNRS” Currently working on Semantic Web and Ontologies Ecological Forecasting Program at NASA Ecological Model Web Preparing for iPBES – integrated projections of biodiversity response to global change Indirect Drivers Economics, Technology, Politics, etc. CO2 & Climate change + Hydrology Direct Drivers Biodiversity response Ecosystem response Land Land use N input Land Freshwater etc. Physical change P input etc. Freshwater Ecosystem functions and services Marine Fishing Nutrient etc. input Marine DIVERSITAS Strategic Plan bioSUSTAINABILITY BD <-> ES <-> HWB <-> Drivers ecoSERVICES BD <-> EF EF<->ES bioDISCOVERY Assessment, observation and modeling bioGENESIS Evolution, systematics, biodiv informatics DIVERSITAS “Specificity” Among ESSP programs