Transcript Aerosols
Anthropogenic Influences on Climate
Snow/Ice Report
Greenhouse Gases
Aerosols
Land Use and Land Cover Change
For Next Class: Read pp. 3-23 of Snow
Booklet
Driving Question
How
do human activities affect global
climate and how significant are those
influences compared to natural causes of
climate change?
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Human Activity and Climate
Change
In 2013, the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that
global warming since the mid-20th century
very likely (estimated probability greater than
90%) was caused mostly (>50%) by human
activities
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Anthropogenic Forcings on Climate
Greenhouse
gases
Aerosols
Land
use/land cover change
Human Activity and Climate
Change
Trends in Greenhouse Gases
“Most of the increase in globally-averaged
temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely
due to the observed increase in anthropogenic GHG
(greenhouse gas) concentrations.” (IPCC 2007)
Fossil fuel combustion accounts for 75% of the
increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide
• deforestation is likely responsible for the balance
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Rising levels of other infrared-absorbing gases
associated with human activity (e.g., methane, nitrous
oxide, halocarbons, and ozone) enhance the
greenhouse effect
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Earth–Atmosphere Radiation Balance
Figure 4.12
Atmospheric Absorption in the EM Spectrum
Why are Greenhouse Gases Important?
Absorb long-wave terrestrial radiation, heating the
atmosphere, and radiating this energy back to the
surface.
Critical for life on Earth.
Without greenhouse effect, surface temperatures
would be extremely cold at night.
Too much of a good thing, however, is a concern.
A rectangular piece of coal in a wagon is on display in the middle of Pacific Avenue
In Tacoma before the arrival of President Harrison in May, 1891.
Life Magazine (1962)
CO2 at Mauna Loa and South Pole (Red) and NOAA (Blue)
IPCC AR5
CH4 at UCI (Green), AGAGE (Red) and NOAA (Blue)
IPCC AR5
N2O at AGAGE (Red) and NOAA (Blue)
IPCC AR5
What is Radiative Forcing?
“The change in net (down minus up) irradiance
(solar plus longwave; in W m-2) at the tropopause”
(IPCC AR5 Ch. 2)
Abbreviated RF
Positive RF implies warming
Negative RF implies cooling
+3.0 w m-2
IPCC AR5
+3.0 w m-2
1000
Years
of CO2
and
Temperatures
Figure 10.29
CO2 and Temperature
Does correlation equate to causation? Why
or why not?
No denying that the anthropogenic
greenhouse effect is playing
a role: Question is how much?
Atmospheric Aerosols
Aerosols: solid or liquid particles suspended in the air
Naturally occurring aerosols: particles from trees, sea salt, dust,
and volcanic dust
Anthropogenic aerosols: particles from the burning of fossil fuels
and biomass, smoke, and agricultural dust
Aerosols can influence weather and climate by directly
and indirectly affecting the amount of solar radiation
reaching the earth’s surface, which can lead to warming
and cooling in different regions of the world. Overall RF is
negative, however.
Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD): variable used by scientists
to describe the amount of solar radiation scattered or
absorbed by aerosols (Instrument: sun photometer)
Human Activity and Climate
Change
Aerosols
90% of anthropogenic aerosols are
byproducts of fossil fuel burning in the
Northern Hemisphere
• cause either cooling (sulfurous aerosols) or
warming (black carbon) of the atmosphere
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Aerosols can alter the number, mean size,
and size distribution of cloud droplets
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Human Activity and Climate
Change
Aerosols
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The direct radiative
forcing of aerosols is
estimated to offset the
CO2 warming by
almost one-third.
(IPCC 2007)
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Global Aerosol
Optical Depth
Trends in
Global Aerosol
Optical Depth
IPCC AR5
Direct and Indirect Effects of Aerosols
Aerosols scatter and absorb incoming solar radiation and
impact cloud microphysics
Direct and Indirect Effects of Aerosols
Small black dots = aerosol particles
Larger open circles = cloud droplets
Straight lines = incident and reflected solar radiation
Fig. 2.10 IPCC AR4
The Cloud Albedo
Effect results in
Negative RF.
-0.82 w m-2
IPCC AR5
Reciprocal Relationship
Aerosols
Climate
Appalachian Atmospheric Interdisciplinary Research
an air quality/climate research and public outreach facility for exploring
air pollution formation and transport and the relationship of pollution
to a changing climate and its effects on regional ecosystems
Participants:
Howie Neufeld – Biology
Brett Taubman – Chemistry
Barkley Sive – Chemistry
Rahman Tashakkori – Computer Science
Baker Perry – Geography
Jim Sherman – Physics
Ryan Emanuel – NC State
Doug Miller – UNCA
Collaborating member of the NOAA-ESRL Global Aerosol Network
(http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aero/net/app/) and the NASA AErosol
RObotic NETwork (AERONET, http://aeronet.gsfc.nasa.gov/)
Changes in Surface Albedo
What is surface albedo and why is it important in the
context of climate change?
How have humans changed surface albedo?
Changes in Surface Albedo
Anthropogenic changes to the physical properties of the
land surface can perturb the climate
Directly exerting a radiative forcing
Modifying other processes such as latent and sensible heat fluxes
Large-scale character of vegetation can affect surface
albedo
Albedo of agricultural land can be very different from that of a
natural landscape, especially forest
Particular important when snow is present, as open land can be
highly reflective with snow cover, while a forest is not
Albedo
Figure 4.5
Human Activity and Climate
Change
Changes
in land use and land cover
Human development has transformed an
estimated one-third to one-half of Earth’s land
surfaces
• Changes can affect the vertical flux of heat and
moisture
influences where and when thunderstorms occur
may modify atmospheric and oceanic circulation
• At middle latitudes, clearing of forests for
agriculture and reforestation of abandoned farm
land has caused regional climate change
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Changes in Land Cover Since 1750
Cropland area expanded from 1750 to 1950 across
Europe, Gangetic Plain, and in North America
Since that time, croplands have been abandoned in
Europe, North America and China, with an increase in
forested areas
Deforestation is occurring quite rapidly in the tropics
How does deforestation (conversion of forest to grass)
affect albedo, the surface energy balance, and RF?
Radiative Forcing of Land Cover Change
Land cover change since 1850 has generally led to higher
surface albedo and a slight negative radiative forcing
Best estimate is -0.24 w m-2
However, spatial variability is quite high, with some areas
showing no change in RF and other areas more negative
than -5 w m-2
With tropical deforestation becoming more significant in
recent decades, warming due to reduced evaporation may
become more significant globally than increased albedo.
Black Carbon on Snow
Presence of soot particles in snow causes a decrease of
albedo and can affect snowmelt
Best estimate of RF is +0.10 w m-2
http://www.arcticpeoples.org/
-0.15 w m-2
IPCC AR5
Anthropogenic Forcings on Climate
Greenhouse gases
Aerosols
Land use/land cover change
No denying that the anthropogenic
activity is playing a role: Question
is how much?