Transcript PRESENTATION Evolution of Climate Policy 2013.ppsx

Evolution of Climate Models
How we study the climate
has changed as technology
has improved.
Mid 1970s
Early climate
models were
limited.
They only included:
• Carbon dioxide
• heat from the sun
(radiation)
• Rain
• NOT even clouds
were considered.
NOTE: Even in
the1970’s we were
aware that CO2 was a
greenhouse gas!
Linking CO2 to Climate Change
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Landmark Study Connecting Global
Warming to CO2 Levels- VIDEO
Mid 1980s
• Clouds, land surface
and ice were added
into the mix in the
1980s.
• Different types of
land behave differently
• Specific heat
• Albedo
• Deserts and ice are
more likely to reflect
radiation, and forests
are more likely to
absorb it.
1988- IPCC is Established
Climate change is a very complex issue:
policymakers need an objective source of information about
the causes of climate change, its potential
environmental, Social, and Economic
consequences and the adaptations and options required to
respond to it.
This is why the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) was established in 1988.
Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change
The IPCC is a scientific intergovernmental body set up by the World
Meteorological Organization (WMO) and by the United Nations
Environment Programme (UNEP).
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established to provide the decision-makers and others interested
in climate change with an objective source of information about
climate change
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To do this, they assess the scientific, technical and socioeconomic publications relevant for the understanding of the risk of
human-induced climate change.
Its constituency is made of :
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The governments: the IPCC is open to all member countries of
WMO and UNEP.
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The scientists: hundreds of scientists all over the world contribute
to the work of the IPCC as authors, contributors and reviewers.
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The people: as United Nations body, the IPCC work aims at the
promotion of the United Nations human development goals
The information that the IPCC provides with its reports is
based on scientific evidence and reflects existing
viewpoints within the scientific community.
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Provides reports that immediately become standard works of
reference, widely used by policymakers, experts and students
The IPCC does not conduct any research nor does it monitor climate
related data or parameters. Why not???
Its role is to comprehensively and objectively assess the latest
scientific, technical and socio-economic literature
Non-Partisan / Non-Profit so IPCC reports should be neutral with
respect to policy (although they need to deal objectively with
climate-related policy).
GOAL to provide information in a policy-relevant but policy neutral
way to help decision makers.
When governments accept the IPCC reports and approve their
Summary for Policymakers, they acknowledge the legitimacy of their
scientific content.
1990 - IPCC’s first Assessment
Report (AR1)
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A simple model
of the oceans
now joins the
picture, as the
first IPCC report
comes out.
only the top
layer of the sea
was modeled
The findings of the first IPCC Assessment
Report of 1990 played a decisive role in
leading to the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC),
UNFCCC was opened for signature
in the Rio de Janeiro Summit in 1992
and entered into force in 1994.
It provides the overall policy framework
for addressing the climate change issue.
1996 Second Assessment
Report (AR2)
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More sophisticated
models of the ocean are
added.
Sulphates and
Volcanoes are also
added.
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Volcanic eruptions throw
greenhouse gases and
particles into the
atmosphere, which can
block sunlight and
temporarily reduce global
temperatures. (vs
Pollution-induced global
dimming, which will persist
for as long as we pollute!
The IPCC Second Assessment
Report of 1996 provided key input
for the negotiations of the Kyoto
Protocol in 1997
1997 – The Kyoto
Protocol
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The Kyoto Protocol is an international agreement
linked to the UNFCCC.
Adopted in Kyoto, Japan, on 11 December 1997
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Entered into force on 16 February 2005.
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(Which US administration?)
(Which US administration?)
Sets binding targets for 37 industrialized countries for reducing
greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions an average of five percent vs. 1990
levels over the five-year period 2008-2012.
Recognizes that developed countries are principally responsible for
the current high levels of GHG emissions in the atmosphere as a result
of more than 150 years of industrial activity
the Protocol places a heavier burden on developed nations under the
principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities.”
2001 Third Assessment
Report (AR3)
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By bringing the
carbon cycle into the
picture, the different
ways C02 is stored
and released into the
atmosphere gives
greater realism to
climate models.
Additional details
about the ocean
circulations,
aerosols, rivers, etc.
184 Parties of the Convention
have ratified its Protocol
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 What was going on,
US Refused to
politically, in the US at
ratify in 2001,
becoming the only that time?
 Economic downturn
industrialized
– post internet boon
nation to not
 Mid-East tensions
comply
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– Saddam Hussein threats
to switch fuel sale to Euro
9/11
– change of national
priorities
2007 Fourth Assessment
Report (AR4)
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Chemical reactions in the
atmosphere join the climate models;
 Ozone
 Nitrous oxide
 Sulfur dioxide
 CFC’s
 Water Vapor
 Etc.
Plants and vegetation are included
Scientists have reached vast
consensus that human activities
contribute to the greenhouse effect
due to industrial processes
Models are now produced using
computing power 256 times more
powerful than that available in the
1970s.
REVIEW: As of 2007, What were the
“universally accepted” factors that made up
climate?
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Carbon Dioxide
Radiation from the sun
Precipitation
Clouds
Land formations (including ice)
Land use – “Concrete Jungle” of urbanization
Complex Models of Oceans
Volcanic Eruptions
The Carbon Cycle
Chemical Reactions in Atmosphere
The Role of Vegetation
Over 5 decades, we gradually began to
see the earth as a true system of
interacting cycles
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Changes in one cycle or activity can fuel a
domino effect in other cycles
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Ex: Deforestation can lead to an increase in
greenhouse gases and raise global atmospheric
temperatures
Ex: Change in warm atmosphere can cause
increased ocean temperatures, which change the
atmosphere
SOURCE:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/spl/hi/pop_ups/07/sci_nat_climate_models/html/3.stm
What other systems do you think
should be considered in climate
models of the future?
The IPCC is currently starting to outline
its Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)
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The outline of the AR5 will be developed
through a process which involves climate
change experts from all relevant
disciplines and users of IPCC reports
(esp. representatives from governments).
will be finalized in 2014.
Go back to
presentation
We gradually began to see the earth as a
true system of interacting cycles
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Changes in one cycle
act can fuel a domino
effect in other cycles
What other systems
do you think should
be considered in
climate models of the
future?
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SOURCE:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/spl/hi/pop_ups/07/sci_nat_climate_models/html/3.stm
The Climate
Change
Controversy
On March 29, 2001, the Bush Administration
withdrew the United States from the
1997 Kyoto Protocol on Climate Change.
Cited reasoning:
 Report was too politically motivated, without enough science
 Many countries of the world are completely exempted from the
Protocol, such as China and India, who are two of the top five
emitters of greenhouse gasses in the world.
 Negative impacts to US economy
 Protocol could have potentially significant repercussions for the
global economy
 It is in no country’s best interest to sacrifice their or the
United States’ economic growth, which could have
adverse effects around the world.
 Provisions under to Kyoto Protocol would rely on inflexible
regulatory structures that would distort investment and waste
billions of dollars on pollution permits, accomplishing no real
change for the environment.
President Bush caught a lot of
heat from Environmental Groups
and Scientists for this move.
What are some criticisms that
Bush received?
Bush Administration established a Cabinet-level working group
to find a method to work with global climate change that was
“more practical” for the US economy
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US Goal: To boost the field of environmental conservation with
“market-based” incentive structures.
 In other words, save environment, but make money while doing it
Resulted in an US energy policy that reflected the seriousness and
practicality of the future of United States’ environmental policy.
February of 2002 the Clear Skies and Global Climate Change Initiatives.
These initiatives collectively accomplish the following for global climate
change:
 By 2018, cuts emissions of the three worst air pollutants by seventy
percent.
 In the next ten years, America commits to cutting greenhouse gas
intensity by 18%.
 Achieves goals comparable to the Kyoto Protocol using marketbased approaches
What are market-based approaches
to reducing greenhouse gases?
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Cap and Trade (tradable permits)
Carbon Taxes
Carbon Credits
MBIS give companies the power to choose
which option works for their situation, and
possibly even generate revenue ($$)
1. Cap and Trade (tradable permit)
Basically sets a limit (Cap) to which industries may pollute.
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If a company pollutes less than this limit, it can trade (sell)
its “pollution credits” to a company that surpasses this
limit
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Regulated and overseen by governmental agencies
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The federal government auctions the pollution emissions
permits to the companies required to reduce their
emissions, it would create a large and dependable revenue
stream.
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creates a system that guarantees a GHG reductions, while
A.
Rewarding the most efficient companies and
B.
Ensuring that the cap can be met at the lowest possible
cost to the economy
http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2008/01/capandtrade101.html
EX: Permit allows 100 Tons of
CO2 to be released per year
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Amt Allowed:
Amt Produced:
Surplus:
Over time, permit allows _____
Tons of CO2 Per year
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Amt Allowed:
Amt Produced:
Surplus:
2. Carbon Taxes
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Taxes imposed by government based on
a)
b)
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the carbon content in fuels and/or
the amount of carbon released (by weight) by an
industry/company
Punitive incentive to lower carbon emissions
punitive = punishment
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Criticisms:
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May encourage companies to relocate
Disproportionately taxes smaller income
businesses and individuals
3. Carbon Credits
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Similar to Cap and Trade, but in this
case, the company purchases “carbon
credits” and the funds to help “offset” the
impact of carbon that they produce
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deploy projects that reduce GHG emissions
commercialize new clean technologies in the
U.S. and worldwide
Purchase acres of rainforest in the amazon
Controversy around Global
Warming
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Scientists are at a vast consensus, but many
social groups are in strong opposition
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“Global Warming is a Hoax”
“Humans can’t impact the climate – the climate
changes on its own”
“CO2 is not a major greenhouse gas”
“More CO2 is actually a nutrient for the planet”
“Fixing global warming will destroy the economy”
The “Upside” of the Controversy
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Anti-Global Warming groups have been actively to “debunk the
global warming myth”
 Heartland Institute
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Criticized for getting funding from auto and gas industries
Why would these industries be interested in opposing the notion that
increased CO2 leads to “global warming”?
Anti-Global Warmists are considered controversial because
they are opposed to the opinions of “the vast majority of
science”
CONSIDER THIS. In the past, we were CERTAIN that…
 The Earth was flat
 Earth was the center of the universe
 The Sun was the center of the universe…
 The proton and neutron were the smallest parts of matter…
The “Upside” of the Controversy?
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Science is progressive- it is an ever growing, expanding and
changing body of knowledge
“Opposition Groups” often provide funding for research to prove
that humans are NOT contributing to climate change
Regardless of who is funding the research, there is value in
skepticism!
We keep learning more about how complex the climate really is
as our technology improves
….Who knows, maybe one day there will be a discovery that
proves that they are right!
In science (and life!), there is
tremendous value in balancing
skepticism and open-mindedness.
This is perfectly embodied in the
Climate Change issue!