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Transcript pptx - Mitigation and Adaptation Research Institute (MARI)

Mitigation and Adaption
Research in Virginia Workshop
Sandpiper Road, Virginia Beach
Hurricane Isabel, 2003(AP Photo/Stephan Savoia)
Existing Research and
Research Gaps
R. Michael Robinson, PhD
AUG 2015
DHS Critical Infrastructures
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Chemical
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Financial Services
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Commercial Facilities
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Food & Agriculture
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Communications
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Government Facilities
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Critical Manufacturing
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Healthcare & Public Health
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Dams
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Information Technology
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Defense/Industrial Base
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Nuclear
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Emergency Services
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Transportation Systems
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Energy
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Water & Wastewater
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What has been done?
(1)
Note: Work assessing the rate of sea level rise and extent of
inundation is not included (key researchers are here)
Chemical
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Very significant manufacturing in Mid-Atlantic
Some manufacturing in Virginia
CC/SLR related research in sector related to how
industry could contribute to solution
No research found on CC/SLR impact on sector
Commercial Facilities
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Research related to CC/SLR cursory, related to flooded
facilities and reduced access
What has been done?
(2)
Communications
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CC/SLR could cause heat problems in service centers,
exchanges, etc. and reduce wireless signal strength and
quality
Primary concern is the potential impacts failures could
have on other infrastructures
Resiliency planning in progress, but none identified in
Mid-Atlantic
Critical Manufacturing
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Very significant manufacturing in Mid-Atlantic
Some in Virginia
No CC/SLR related research in sector found
What has been done?
(3)
Dams
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Approximately 50 hydroelectric plants in Mid-Atlantic,
including 6 in Virginia
Precipitation rate impacts
Depending on location, could see either inadequate
precipitation or excessive amounts
No CC/SLR related research in sector found
Defense Industrial Base
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Huge presence in Virginia
Major impacts to local economies
Most work being led within DOD. Limited published
research.
What has been done?
(4)
Emergency Services
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Capabilities and effectiveness directly related to
transportation systems, communications, IT, etc.
Increased demand resulting from higher temperatures,
forecast storm frequency and intensity
Alluded to in research of other areas, but little CC/SLR
related research in sector found
Energy
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Impacts due to rising temperatures, reduced water
availability, increased storm rates and strengths
Research being done, but none identified specifically in the
Mid-Atlantic
What has been done?
(5)
Financial Services
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No CC/SLR related research in sector found
Food & Agriculture
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Little consensus on significance of CC/SLR on changes to
farm products, productivity
Concerns about spread of disease, fungi, effectiveness of
herbicides and insecticides at higher temperatures
Government Facilities
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New construction design changes
Extensive changes required to existing infrastructure
What has been done?
(6)
Healthcare and Public Health
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Emerging health threats as temperature changes allow
existing threats to spread
New demands on healthcare system
Information Technology
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Potential major impacts due to heat in equipment
centers
Ubiquitous. Major concern is the potential impacts
failures could have on other infrastructures
Nuclear Reactors, Materials, and Waste
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Over a dozen plant sites in Mid-Atlantic
Two commercial sites in Virginia
What has been done?
(7)
Transportation
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Existing CC/SLR related research focuses on flooding
(reduced network capability) and environmental impacts on
physical infrastructure
Major impacts on other critical infrastructures
Water and Wastewater
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Weather changes impact type, rate, and timing of
precipitation with significant “downstream” impacts
Lack of “downhill” drainage
Flooding impacts pump station viability
Sample Local City Considerations
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Hampton
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Norfolk
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Residential area and business sector flooding
Transportation network viability
Port impacts
Portsmouth
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Infrastructure resiliency
Transportation network viability
Vulnerabilities Study
Flood prone road network around military installations
Virginia Beach
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Evacuation & SEPG considerations
Beach resilience, tourism
Transportation Sector Example:
Degradation & Strategic Investment
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Statewide spending has been
unable to keep up with
maintenance and improvements.
Virginia roads rank
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10th lowest in the nation for rideability
32nd nationally for the percent of
bridges that are functionally
obsolete or structurally deficient.
SLR compounds this by
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Flooding evacuation routes
Increasing hydraulic pressure on
tunnels
Altering drainage capacity
Accelerating coastal erosion and
damaging nearby roads
Funding
Needs
Interdependent Infrastructures
Emergency
Services
Nuclear
Commercial
Facilities
Tax Revenue
Accessibility
Transportation
Systems
Energy
Food &
Agriculture
Government
Facilities
Chemical
Sanitation &
Logistics
Healthy
Workforce
Information
Technology
Operational
Support
Accessibility
Communications
Financial
Services
Water &
Wastewater
Sanitation
Healthy Workforce
Healthcare &
Public Health
Critical
Manufacturin
g
Defense
Industrial
Base
Dams
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Interdependent Infrastructures –
Follow the Money!
Causal Loop Diagram of interdependent population, commercial sector, &investment funding
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Sample References (1)
Abler, David G. and James S. Shortle. Climate change and agriculture in the Mid-Atlantic Region. Climate
Research, Volume 14, pp. 185-194, 2000. (Considers how climate change might affect future Mid-Atlantic
agriculture. Assessment suggests that Mid-Atlantic crop and livestock production will probably not change
significantly though there maybe changes in the environmental impacts. Given that agriculture currently has
significant negative impacts on water quality in many areas, including the Chesapeake Bay, this should be a high
priority for research.)
Assessing Vulnerability and Risk of Climate Change Effects on Transportation Infrastructure: Hampton
Roads Virginia Pilot. (VDOT, UVA Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems and Center for
Transportation Studies,VCTIR, HRPDC, HRTPO). 2012. At:
http://www.virginia.edu/crmes/fhwa_climate/files/finalReport.pdf
Benson, Keith, Patricia Kocagil and James Shortle. Climate change and health in the Mid-Atlantic Region.
Climate Research, Volume 14, pp. 235–244, 2000. (Assesses potential health impacts from climate change.
Morbidity and mortality from extreme events may increase somewhat. Although more speculative, climate change
could increase the region’s risk from water-borne and vector-borne diseases. The elderly and those with limited
access to health care could be disproportionately affected.)
Fisher, Ann and Ron Smart (ed.). Climate Change Impacts in the Mid-Atlantic Region – A Workshop Report.
Sponsored by The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
Office of Research and Development, Global Change Research Program (Cooperative Agreement No. CR
826554-01) and Office of Policy (Cooperative Agreement No. CR 824369-01) and The Pennsylvania State
University, 1997. At: http://www.epa.gov/eims/global/ccimar.pdf.
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Sample References (2)
Ezell, Barry C., R. Michael Robinson, Peter Foytik, and David Flanagan. Cyber risk to transportation,
industrial control systems and traffic signal controllers, Environment Systems and Decisions, November
2013, pp. 508-516. (A cyber risk study focusing on bridge/tunnel ICS and a cyber event that tampered with traffic
signal operation.)
Hampton Roads Transportation Planning Organization. Hampton Roads Military Transportation Needs
Study: Roadways Serving the Military and Sea Level Rise/Storm Surge. July 2013. At:
http://www.hrtpo.org/uploads/docs/Roadways%20Serving%20the%20Military%20&%20Sea%20Level%20Rise
-Storm%20Surge%20Report.pdf
Kleinosky, Lisa R., Brent Yarnal, and Ann Fisher.Vulnerability of Hampton Roads,Virginia to Storm-Surge
Flooding and Sea-Level Rise. Natural Hazards, Volume 40, pp. 43-70, 2007.
Neff, Rob, Heejun Chang, C. Gregory Knight, Raymond G. Najjar, Brent Yarnal, and Henry A. Walker. Impact
of climate variation and change on Mid-Atlantic Region hydrology and water resources. Climate Research,
Volume 14, pp. 207-218, 2000. (Observed streamflow, groundwater, and water-quality data are shown to vary in
association with climate variation. Projections of future streamflow, groundwater, and water quality are made using
models determined from these associations and are applied to 2 transient general circulation model (GCM)
scenarios. Projections demonstrate that future hydrology and water resources will be influenced by climate change,
but that uncertainty in accurately projecting that influence will continue until model scenarios improve.)
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Sample References (3)
Nichols, Keith M., HAMPTON ROADS CONGESTION MANAGEMENT PROCESS: THE STATE OF
TRANSPORTATION IN HAMPTON ROADS 2014, June 2014.
At: http://www.hrtpo.org/uploads/docs/State%20of%20Transportation%202014%20Final%20Report.pdf
Rogers, Catriona E. and John P. McCarty. Climate change and ecosystems of the Mid-Atlantic Region.
Climate Research, Volume 14, pp. 245–253, 2000.( Discusses status of forested, wetland, freshwater and coastal
ecosystems; the combined impacts of habitat alteration, pollution and non-native invasive species on those systems;
how climatic changes could interact with existing stresses; potential management strategies, and crucial research
gaps in 2000.)
Robinson, R. Michael, Barry Ezell, Peter Foytik, Craig Jordan, and Joseph Weiss. Cyber Risk to
Transportation Industrial Control Systems. Journal of Cyber Security and Information Systems,Volume 1
Issue 4, October 2013, pp. 2-8. (Discusses and provides simulation case study results of consequences of cyber
attack on transportation ICS, including estimates of commercial impact due to lost time in transit.)
Stiles, William A. A “Toolkit” for Sea Level Rise Adaptation in Virginia. At:
http://www.wetlandswatch.org/Portals/3/WW%20documents/sea-level-rise/ASCE%20Meeting%20Paper.pdf
Tompkins, Forbes and Christina Deconcini. Sea-Level Rise and Its Impact on Virginia. World Resources
Institute Fact Sheet.
At: http://www.wri.org/sites/default/files/wri_factsheet_virginia_final.pdf
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Sample References (4)
Tran, Paul, Leonard Weireter, Whitney Sokolowski, Kaleen Lawsure, and John Sokolowski. HAZUS Modeling
for Hurricane Effect on a Healthcare Campus: Implications for Health Care Planning. The American Surgeon,
Volume 75, Number 11, November 2009, pp. 1059-1064(6). (Project modeled the damage sustained by the
healthcare campus, in the aftermath of a hurricane, as a tool to facilitate pre- and post-storm planning for provision
of healthcare services or campus evacuation. HAZUS was used to estimate disaster associated losses, storm surge,
residual flooding, and wind damage. The ability of the healthcare campus to deliver services was assessed as a
function of the residual functional infrastructure. )
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Mike Robinson
[email protected]
(757) 638-7010
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Sandpiper Road, Virginia Beach
Hurricane Isabel, 2003(AP Photo/Stephan Savoia)
Discussion
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