Transcript 03a-Ben Le Bas CMSC conference Sept 2014

Planning for climate change in nature
reserve management plans
Ben Le Bas & Simon Duffield, Natural England
The challenge
The challenge
The challenge
The challenge
The challenge
Our approach
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Up to date, and updateable
Consistent
Both national and local
Pragmatic
Efficient
Our approach
1. Projected Climate Change
2. Impacts
3. Vulnerability Assessment
4. Responses
Step 1: What climate change?
• Which scenario?
• What duration?
Step 2: Projected impacts
Step 3: Vulnerability assessment
Feature name
Eutrophic Standing Open Water
Aggregation of non-breeding species
Water vole
Landscape - glacial hummocks and ridges
Archaeological & historical features
Economic use
Community involvement
Education
Research
Demonstration
Public access
Estate assets
Temperature
Rainfall
L
M
Extreme
Events
H
In Combination
Confidence
M
L
M
H
Key NNR features
Main elements of climate change
Record the confidence you
have in the assessment,
based on the available
information and your
understanding of the reserve
Step 3: Response
Aqualate Mere NNR
Aqualate Mere NNR
Feature name
Rainfall Temperature
Extreme Events In combination
Eutrophic Standing Open Water
H
H
H
H
Aggregation of non-breeding species
L
M
L
L
Dystrophic standing open water
M22/M23 fen/rush pasture
M
H
M
H
H
H
H
H
M27 mire, S4/S22 swamp/reed bed
H
H
H
H
Common otter
H
H
H
H
Water vole
H
H
H
H
Assemblage of breeding waders
H
H
H
H
Invertebrate assemblage: Coleoptera
Quaternary geology
W6 alder woodland
L
M
L
M
L
M
L
M
Breeding grey heron
Breeding bird assemblage
H
H
M
M
H
H
L
H
Bat populations
M
M
M
M
Reasoning
Confidence
Mere already suffers from Algal Blooms. Temperature Increase would cause
larger algal bloom events
Passage Shoveler etc Wildfowl winter populations may decline as the birds
winter further north in response to winter warming. However Increased winter
temperature is likely to increase the overwinter survival rate
H
Drought events would affect this area
Water dependent habitat, Increased temp, leading to drought would be very
detreimental. Increased flooding would prevent essential management activities
taking place
Water dependent habitat, Increased temp, leading to drought would be very
detreimental. Increased flooding would prevent essential management activities
taking place.
M
M
Reduced water levels would adversely affect mammals such as
water voles, otters
Reduced water levels would adversely affect mammals such as
water voles, otters
Reduced soil moisture could adversely influence breeding success or survival
rates of ground-feeding bird species, particularly those which feed on
invertebrates whose abundance is influenced by soil moisture or those that
require moist, easily penetrable soils to get food.
M
Reduced water levels may impact of tree growth. Stressed trees more
susceptible to pests and diseases.
Drought may impact Fish populations
Species dependent, some may be unaffected, some new species may even
start breeding here. Earlier spring may impact on inverterbrate availability for
chicks.
Summer flooding is already affecting breeding birds in the reedbed e.g. Reed
warblers.
Direct links have been found between summer precipitation and survival of bat
species, with higher precipitation associated with greater insect abundance and
drier springs and summers having a negative effect on population numbers
Warmer winter will mean reduced hibernation period
L
M
M
M
L
H
M
L
L
M
Martin Down NNR
Martin Down NNR
Teesmouth NNR
Teesmouth NNR
Temperature
Rainfall
Extreme
events
L
L
L
M
M
M
H
H
H
In
combination
L
Confidence
L
M
M
H
H
Responses
Examples from the adaptation manual
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Manage veteran trees to reduce the crown to root ratio, and improve
protection for individual veteran trees
In treeless river reaches, optimise riparian tree cover to provide patchy
light and shade. This provides the best mosaic of biotopes, an ample
supply of woody debris and leaf litter, and provides buffering against rising
water temperatures, shading the water and lowering temperature on
sunny days.
The isolated nature of flushes means that the translocation of species
from other sites may be a viable adaptation option where natural
colonisation is unlikely.
Encourage structural diversity within areas of blanket bog by, for
example, adjusting grazing levels and using a range of species, breeds,
ages and sizes of animal.
And at the site level…
Conclusions
• A simple approach combining skills of
local and national staff
• More information required eg species
• CMSi is our tool to apply it, share it and
record it