Transcript vulnerability framework assessment

Climate Change Adaptation Strategies for WAter
Resources and Human LivelihoodS in the Coastal Zones
of Small IslAnd Developing StatEs
STAKEHOLDER PANELS
Saint Lucia and St Vincent & the Grenadines
Dr Michael Sutherland
September 25, 2013 - Saint Lucia
September 27, 2013 - Saint Vincent & the Grenadines
1 of 15
Framework for Vulnerability
Assessment:
St Lucia and St Vincent & the
Grenadines
2 of 15
Structure of Presentation
• Key objectives
• Defining water security
• Water security in SIDS
• Definition of livelihoods and vulnerability
• Intrinsic Vulnerability in SIDS
• Elements of Vulnerability to climate-related Impacts
• Vulnerability Indices
• The Sustainable Livelihoods Vulnerability Index
3 of 15
KEY OBJECTIVES
• To analyze how changes in water supply and water
demand will impact on human livelihoods.
• To assess the impacts of climatic and non-climatic
drivers on water resources and human livelihoods
in St Lucia and St Vincent & the Grenadines.
• To formulate a vulnerability index to measure
elements of vulnerability in St Lucia and St Vincent
& the Grenadines.
4 of 15
DEFINITION OF WATER SECURITY
The reliable availability of an acceptable quantity and quality of
water for health, livelihoods and production, coupled with an
acceptable level of water-related risks (Sadoff and Muller, 2009).
Water security involves investments in 3 main areas:
• Infrastructure
• Institutions
• Information
5 of 15
WATER SECURITY IN SIDS
• Small Island Developing States (SIDS) account
for less than 1 % of greenhouse gas emissions
(IPCC, 2001). However, they are arguably the
most vulnerable to the adverse impacts of
climatic changes.
• SIDS are particularly vulnerable to impacts on
the supply of fresh water.
6 of 15
DEFINITION OF LIVELIHOODS
• A livelihood is a means of making a living. It encompasses
people’s capabilities, assets, income and activities required
to secure the necessities of life.
• A livelihood is sustainable when it enables people to cope
with and recover from shocks and stresses (such as natural
disasters and economic or social upheavals) and enhance
their well-being and that of future generations without
undermining the natural environment or resource base
(IFRC).
7 of 15
DEFINITION OF VULNERABILITY
• Blaikie et al (1994): “characteristics of a person or group in terms
of their capacity to anticipate, cope with, resist and recover from
the impact of a natural hazard”
• Chamber (1989): “exposure to contingencies and stress, and
difficulty coping with them”.
• The IPCC 2001 defines vulnerability in relation to climate change
as “The degree, to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to
cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate
variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the
character, magnitude, and rate of climate variation to which a
system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity.”
8 of 15
INTRINSIC VULNERABILITIES OF SIDS
9 of 15
ELEMENTS OF VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE-RELATED
IMPACTS
• Vulnerability is a function of exposure to specific social
and environmental stresses, sensitivity and adaptive
capacities (Polsky et al. 2007).
• Vulnerability to climate related impacts may be
systematically measured and assessed through:
o Exposure - the nature and degree to which the societal system is exposed to
the climate-related impacts;
o Sensitivity - the degree to which the societal system is adversely affected by
the impacts; and
o Adaptive capacity - the ability of a system to adjust to climate-induced shocks,
either in short or medium terms, to moderate potential damages, to take
advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences.
• Some of the principal ‘drivers’ of Vulnerability in St Lucia
and St Vincent and the Grenadines are identified in the
following figure.
10 of 15
Figure 1: Risk Drivers for St. Lucia and St. Vincent & the Grenadines
Climatic Drivers
Sea Level Rise
Non-Climatic Drivers
Extreme Meteorological
Events
Social and Human
Activities
Infrastructure
Man-Made
Environmental
Factors
Institutional
Structure
Processes
Deforestation
Water Authority
Management
Structure
Leakages
Population Growth
Coastal Erosion
Precipitation
Saline Intrusion
into Aquifers
Temperature
Rise
Tourism
Industrial/Commercial
Settlements
Droughts
Agriculture Practices
Floods
Recreational Activities
Surface
Run-off
Deteriorated
Equipment
Air Pollution
Lack of
Equipment
Water Pollution
Subsidized
Water Supply
Unskilled
Labour
Water Course
Alterations
Political Events
Unenforced
Water Laws
Land Use
Change
Diplomacy
CHANGES IN QUALITY AND QUANTITY OF FRESHWATER RESOURCES
(ALTERED SUPPLY & DEMAND)
11 of 15
VULNERABILITY INDICES
• “An index is a composite representation of numerical
measurements manipulated in some manner to give a single
value, often called an index score or rank” (Simpson & Katirai
2006).
• Vulnerability Indices are used to compare the relative
vulnerability of two or more locations at a given point in time as
well as to compare the vulnerability of any one location over time.
• There are several different types of vulnerability indices.
• In our study, the emphasis is on the vulnerability of human
livelihoods to the effects of climate change on water resources.
• For this reason, we develop a Sustainable Livelihoods Vulnerability
Index (Hahn et al. 2009).
• The index consists of 5 sub-indices, each representing one of five
‘livelihood’ capital pillars: the environmental, the physical, the
social, the human and the financial.
12 of 15
Figure 2 : Pillars of Sustainable Livelihoods Vulnerability Index
ENVIRONMENTAL
PHYSICAL
SOCIAL
HUMAN
FINANCIAL
CAPITAL
CAPITAL
CAPITAL
CAPITAL
CAPITAL
BIODIVERSITY
TRANSPORT
GROUPS AND
NETWORKS
AGE
OCCUPATION
FRESHWATER
SHELTER
TRUST AND
SOLIDARITY
EDUCATION
EMPLOYMENT
AGRICULTURE
SANITATION
COOPERATION
DEMOGRAPHY
INCOME
FORESTRY
ENERGY
EMPOWERMENT
AND POLITICAL
ACTION
HEALTH
ASSET OWNERSHIP
MARINE
RESOURCES
COMMUNICATIONS
SOCIAL COHESION
AND INCLUSION
POPULATION SIZE
UNEMPLOYMENT
WORK
CONNECTIONS
CLIMATE
EDUCATION
NATURAL
HAZARDS
13 of 15
Sustainable Livelihoods Vulnerability Index
• Each pillar is an index in its own right.
• The Sustainable Livelihoods Vulnerability Index (SLVI) is an
amalgam of all 5 sub-indices.
• The index is to be calculated for various communities of St Lucia
and St Vincent & the Grenadines.
• It is to be re-calculated over time.
• The impact of simulated climate change events may be measured.
• The impact of simulated adaptation policies may be measured.
14 of 15
Climate Change Adaptation Strategies for WAter Resources
and Human LivelihoodS in the Coastal Zones of Small IslAnd
Developing StatEs
Thank you
15 of 15