Transcript Presentation - Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts

Tools and Information:
what’s already out there, and what more do we need?
Wisconsin Initiative on Climate
Change Impacts (WICCI)
Maps of Observed Change
www.wicci.wisc.edu
Wisconsin Initiative on Climate
Change Impacts (WICCI)
Climate Analog Mapper
http://www.wicci.wisc.edu/climate-map.php
Climate Change Resource Center
• Topic pages
– Urban Forests
– Water Resources
– Silviculture
– Wildlife
– Forest Carbon
– Grasslands
– Wildland fire
• Tools
www.fs.usda.gov/ccrc
Climate Change Tree Atlas
2070-2100 Low
Changes in Suitable Habitat
(Sugar Maple)
Legend
Importance
all_spp_current
Value
fia_802
Current
Low
1.000000
1.000001 - 4.000000
4.000001 - 6.000000
6.000001 - 9.000000
9.000001 - 11.000000
2070-2100 High
11.000001 - 14.000000
High
14.000001 - 23.000000
www.fs.fed.us/nrs/atlas/
Source: Louis Iverson et al. (US Forest Service)
NIACS Vulnerability Assessment
• Examine a range of
future climates
• Do not make
recommendations
• Sources of information:
• Models
• Published research
• Local managers and
experts
Download: www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/46393
Climate Change Projections for Individual Tree Species
PCM B1 Scenario (Less Change)
Landscape: Northern Wisconsin/Western Upper Michigan
Generally expected
to decrease
Substantial Declines:
Black spruce
Eastern redbud*
Mountain maple*
Smaller declines:
Balsam fir
Paper birch
Quaking aspen
Rock elm*
White spruce
Wild plum*
*Species only modeled by
the Tree Atlas (DISTRIB)
Note: model results only
Little Change
Bigtooth aspen
Chokecherry*
Eastern hophornbeam*
Eastern white pine
Jack pine
Northern red oak
Northern white-cedar
Pin cherry*
Red maple
Red pine
Striped maple*
Sugar maple
Swamp white oak*
Tamarack*
Yellow birch
Generally expected
to increase
Substantial Increases:
American beech
Bitternut hickory
Black ash
Black locust*
Black oak
Black walnut*
Black willow*
Eastern cottonwood*
Hackberry*
Red mulberry*
River birch+
Shagbark hickory*
Silver maple*
Slippery elm*
New Suitable Habitat
(Tree Atlas)
Chinkapin oak*
Eastern redcedar*
Flowering dogwood*
Gray birch*
Honeylocust*
Mockernut hickory*
Ohio buckeye*
Osage-orange*
Pignut hickory*
Pin oak*
Post oak*
Sassafras*
Scarlet oak*
Shingle oak*
Sweet birch*
Sycamore*
Yellow-poplar*
Not sure
(Disagreement among models)
(Atlas/LANDIS):
American basswood (0/++)
Balsam poplar (--/0)
Black cherry (++/0)
Green ash (-/+)
Northern pin oak (0/++)
Smaller Increases:
American elm*
American hornbeam*
Boxelder*
Bur oak
Butternut*
Eastern hemlock
White ash
White oak
Source: Janowiak, M.K.; et al. 2014 (In press). Forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis for northern Wisconsin and western Upper
Michigan: a report from the Northwoods Climate Change Response Framework. Newtown Square, PA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service,
Northern Research Station. www.forestadaptation.org.
Climate Change Projections for Individual Tree Species
GFDL A1FI Scenario (Greater Change)
Landscape: Northern Wisconsin/Western Upper Michigan
Generally expected
to decrease
Substantial Declines:
Balsam fir
Black spruce
Butternut*
Chokecherry*
Mountain maple*
Paper birch
Pin cherry*
Quaking aspen
White spruce
Yellow birch
Smaller declines:
Black ash
Eastern white pine
Jack pine
Northern white-cedar
Striped maple*
Sugar maple
Tamarack*
*Species only modeled by
the Tree Atlas (DISTRIB)
Note: model results only
Little Change
Green ash
Northern red oak
Red pine
Generally expected
to increase
Substantial Increases:
American elm*
American hornbeam*
Bitternut hickory
Black locust*
Black oak
Black walnut*
Black willow*
Boxelder*
Eastern cottonwood*
Eastern redbud*
Hackberry*
Red mulberry*
River birch*
Shagbark hickory*
Silver maple*
Slippery elm*
White oak
Wild plum*
Smaller Increases:
American basswood
American beech
Black cherry
Bur oak
Eastern hophornbeam*
Peachleaf willow*
Swamp white oak*
White ash
New Suitable Habitat
(Tree Atlas)
Black hickory*
Blackgum*
Blackjack oak*
Chestnut oak*
Chinkapin oak*
Common persimmon*
Eastern redcedar*
Flowering dogwood*
Gray birch*
Honeylocust*
Mockernut hickory*
Northern catalpa*
Ohio buckeye*
Osage-orange*
Pignut hickory*
Pin oak*
Post oak*
Sassafras*
Scarlet oak*
Shellbark hickory*
Shingle oak*
Sugarberry*
Sweet birch*
Sweeygum*
Sycamore*
Yellow-poplar*
Not sure
(Disagreement among models)
(Atlas/LANDIS):
Balsam poplar (0/--)
Bigtooth aspen (0/--)
Eastern hemlock (0/--)
Northern pin oak (0/++)
Red maple (-/+)
Source: Janowiak, M.K.; et al. 2014 (In press). Forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis for northern Wisconsin and western Upper
Michigan: a report from the Northwoods Climate Change Response Framework. Newtown Square, PA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service,
Northern Research Station. www.forestadaptation.org.
Vulnerability by Forest Type
Community Type
Potential Impacts Adaptive Capacity
Vulnerability
Upland spruce-fir
Negative
Moderate-Low
High
Lowland conifers
Negative
Moderate-Low
High
Lowland-riparian
hardwoods
Moderate-Negative
Moderate
Moderate-High
Aspen-birch
Moderate-Negative
Moderate-High
Moderate-High
Red pine
Moderate-Negative
Moderate-Low
Moderate-High
Jack pine
Moderate-Negative
Moderate-High
Moderate
Northern hardwoods Moderate-Negative
Moderate-High
Moderate
White pine
Moderate-Negative
High
Moderate-Low
Oak associations
Moderate
Moderate-High
Moderate- Low
Source: Janowiak et al. 2014
DNR Vulnerability Assessment
• Same process as NIACS
assessment
• Includes southern forest
communities
• Includes northern nonforest communities
• Released soon!
NED-3 Climate Change Report
Report Objective
• To provide natural resource
managers with information
that they can use to better
understand and assess the
risk of forest stands and
properties to climate change,
in order to inform their
decision making.
Prescription Development
Identify Goals and Objectives
•
Involve appropriate stakeholders
•
Measurable criteria
•
Collect and analyze data
•
Modify to fit situation
•
Specify and implement activities
Determine Necessary Conditions
Determine Existing Conditions
Identify Appropriate Silvicultural System
Develop Prescription(s):
NED-3 Climate Change Report
The NED-3 Climate Change Report utilizes 9 climate-informed metrics (CIM’s) which rely on
standard forest inventory data. These climate-informed metrics are a practical way to
leverage existing forest inventory data to better understand key climate risks and measure
the effectiveness of adaptation actions over time. These include:
• Total Stocking
• Tree Species Diversity (Richness)
• Tree Species Evenness (Richness Distribution)
• Large Coarse Woody Debris
• Saplings per Acre
• Seedlings per Acre
Three new metrics provide an assessment of the risk of decline of trees, saplings, and
seedlings using data from the Climate Change Tree Atlas:
• Climate Risk – Overstory
• Climate Risk – Saplings
• Climate Risk – Seedlings
Questions?
1. What are your informational / tool needs regarding climate
change management?
a)
What would make your life easier?
2. What would help you catch the attention of clients,
partners, or peers when incorporating climate change into
management?
3. How do you discern between climate change effects and
other impacts?
4. What timeframes are most important for your work (e.g.
now, +20 yrs., +50 yrs., +100 yrs.?
5. What about “assisted migration”? Is this controversial for
your work? Do you already do it?