Transcript MLK Rotary slides April-May 2016

The Failed Science of Global
warming: Time to Re-consider
Climate Change
Madhav Khandekar
Expert Reviewer IPCC 2007 Climate Change
April, May 2016
Rotary Club Presentation
IPCC vs NIPCC
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IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change; A UN Body of scientists (mostly
working with various national
governments) established in 1988: IPCC
has issued climate change documents
since 1990.
NIPCC: Nongovernmental International
Panel on climate change (over 60
scientists & specialists in various fields)
established in 2007: First comprehensive
report in 2009
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Latest Climate Assessment
March 2014
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IPCC Assessment
Climate warming due to
human-CO2 will accelerate
in future
This will have harmful
impacts on humanity
Extreme Weather will
increase: Sea levels will
rise faster
Grain yields could be
affected in future
Human health could be
affected in a warmer world
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NIPPC Assessment
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Warming so far is modest
& due to natural variability
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Modest warming so far has
been beneficial to
humanity
Extreme Weather Not on
the rise: Sea levels have
Stabilized
Grain yields have doubled
in developing countries
Human health has
improved in developing
world
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Discrepancy Between IPCC
Projections and Climate Reality
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IPCC Projections
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Climate to warm by 1-1.5C
from 1980 to 2012.
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Human-CO2 primary driver
for warming
Natural variability primary
driver of climate
Heat waves have not
increased in recent years
Frequent heat waves globally
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Winters will be milder and
shorter
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Snow accumulation to
decrease in future
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Mid-continental droughts to
be exacerbated: Floods may
increase in some areas
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Climate warmed between
1980-98 by about 0.5C: No
additional warming since then
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Climate Reality
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Winters have become much
colder, longer and snowier in
last six years
Droughts & floods appear
cyclical, driven by natural
variability
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IPCC 2007
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U.K Met office data
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Mechanics of extreme weather (EW)
IPCC View
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NIPCC View
Warmer climate holds more
moisture: more rains & floods
in some areas; droughts/heat
waves in other areas.
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More intense Trop Cyclones
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Increase in extreme rainfall
events
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Decrease in cool days/night
and frost in Mid-latitudes
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EW are on the rise now due to
warming of climate.
April, May 2016
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Extreme weather is an
integral part of earth’s
climate: have occurred
throughout recorded history
of climate.
ENSO (El Nino-Southern
Oscillation) phases can and do
cause EW events world-wide
Intense interaction between
high-lat. cold air with low-lat.
warm air produces EW events
regionally/locally
Present increase in EW is
perception than reality!
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Heat Waves: North America &
Elsewhere
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North American Prairies witnessed recurring heat waves &
droughts in 1920s and 1930s! Central Canada witnessed worst
heat waves in the 1930s!
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Heat Wave over Europe (June 2003) & Moscow (July 2010) were
due to natural climate variability
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Pre-Monsoon (April-May) heat waves over India are common &
exhibit inter-annual variability
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Heat waves over Australia linked to ENSO phases
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Recent heat waves (ex.,2013) over China, due to drying of soil
moisture
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Deadliest heat wave in Canada; 1100 people died July 1936
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Highest Recorded Temperatures
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World’s highest: 57.8C (136F) Libya 13 Sept
1922
Canada’s highest:45C Saskatchewan Canadian
Prairies, 5 July 1937
US highest: 56.7C (134F) California 10 July 1913
Highest on Indian subcontinent: ~128F NW India,
1930s
Highest in China: 43.4C Central China
1
September 2006
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Droughts-floods & ENSO
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A warm events (El Nino) in the equatorial Pacific
brings summer rains over US/Canadian Prairies
A cold event ( La Nina) is linked with drier
summer on the Prairies.
El Nino/La Nina linked to droughts/floods in
Indian summer monsoon
ENSO and PDO-Pacific Decadal Oscillation
produce dry/wet conditions over eastern
Australia, Indonesia, southeast China and
eastern Africa.
ENSO is the single largest cause of global
extreme precipitation events
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The 1997/98 El Nino structure at about Sep 1997
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PDO COLD MODE
PDO WARM MODE
Mostly El Ninos
Wolter
Mostly La Ninas
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Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
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AMO is another example of
large-scale atmosphereOcean Oscillation, driven
by natural climate
variability
North Atlantic Hurricane
activity is linked to Sea
Surface Temperatures,
besides other parameters
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Major Flood Years 1892, 1917, 1933, 1961, 1970, 1975
Major drought years 1868, 1877, 1899, 1918, 1951, 1972, 1987
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Extreme Precipitation
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Precipitation extremes have occurred irregularly in various
regions without being forced by ‘Human Activity’
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Extreme precipitation often linked to tropical
cyclones/hurricanes: Also in monsoonal climate
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Highest 24-hr: 18Jan1966; 182cm (south Indian Ocean:
TC-Hyacinthe)
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Highest one month: July 1861 930cm (Cherrapunji India)
Highest one year: 1860-61 2647cm (Cherrapunji India)
Recent studies on “human link to extreme rainfall” are
without any merit! (rainfall amounts only ~50-150mm
locally: UK, Europe, North America)
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• SEA LEVEL HAS BEEN RISING STEADILY FOR LAST
SEVERAL THOUSAND YEARS AT ABOUT 1.5 TO 2.0 MM
PER YEAR
THERE HAS BEEN NO ACCELERATED SEA LEVEL RISE AT
PRESENT IN ANY OF THE LOW- LYING AREAS OF THE
WORLD
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The Pacific
four key sites, all notorious for claims of on-going
flooding
Majuro
Kiribati
Tuvalu
Vanuatu
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Green Energy
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Green Energy is expensive and unaffordable
Besides, it is NOT producing any measurable
impact on earth’s climate!
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Recent Cold Weather Extremes
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Winter 2014/15: Coldest February in Toronto & parts of southern ON; low
temperature of -35C for several days in February! Elsewhere, heavy snow avalanches
in Afghanistan in mid-February killed over 150 people!
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Winter 2013/14: Coldest, longest and snowiest over North America in 40 years! Parts
of Japan & NE China saw cold winter with lots of snow!
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Winter 2012/13: Extremely cold over most of Europe: March 2013 broke several cold
weather records! January 2013 was very cold over most of North and central India!
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Winter 2011/12: Coldest February 2012 in eastern Europe! Low temperature -40C
and below killing several dozen people!
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Winter 2009/10: Very cold over eastern & central Europe: several deaths in eastern
Europe & Germany: Siberia suffered its coldest winter ever! North India witnessed
colder and longer winter, with several hundred deaths!
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Winter 2007/08: snowiest winter in Northern Hemisphere since 1966: Heavy snow in
China! Buenos Aires (SA) recorded several cm of snow (July 2007) after 85 years!
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Winter 2005/06: Very Cold most of Europe!
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Winter 2002/03: Severe cold in eastern Europe, 200 deaths in Poland: Long cold
spells in North India, Bangladesh & Vietnam; several hundred deaths due to long cold
spells!
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Dec, Jan Feb
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Summary & Conclusions
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The IPCC GW science is increasingly at odds with climate reality!
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There has been NO warming of earth’s climate in last 17 years!
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Climate Models predict excessive warming!
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Cold Weather Extremes (possibly linked to solar variability) are on the rise
worldwide!
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EW (extreme weather) events _ like heat waves, droughts, floods etc_
show NO increasing trend anywhere!
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Hurricane/tropical storm activity worldwide is at record low!
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India/Asian Monsoon droughts and floods have occurred irregularly
without being forced by human-CO2 induced warming!
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The modest present warming of the earth’s climate is beneficial to world
humanity!
Its time to re-consider climate change!
April, May 2016
Rotary Club Presentation
April, May 2016
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