Transcript IPCC presentation part1

IPCC Synthesis Report
Part I
• Overview
• How to address the issue of “dangerous
anthropogenic perturbation” to the
climate system
• The relationship between climate
change and development, equity and
sustainability
Robert Watson
Mother Earth -- Our Home
It is has water, oxygen and a hospitable climate
World Population 6,056,528,577
The Challenge: Sustainable Management of an Ever-Changing Planet
The Challenge: Sustainable Energy
The Challenge: Food Security
Food
production
needs to
double to meet
the needs of an
additional 3
billion people
in the next 30
years
Climate change is projected to
decrease agricultural
productivity in the tropics and
sub-tropics for almost any
amount of warming
The Challenge: Sustainable Forestry
Wood fuel is the only
source of fuel for one
third of the world’s
population
Wood demand will double
in next 50 years
Climate change is
projected to increase
forest productivity, but
forest management will
become more difficult,
due to an increase in
pests and fires
The Challenge: Water Security
Water Services
One third of the world’s
population is now subject to
water scarcity
Climate
change is
projected to
decrease
water
availability
in many
arid- and
semi-arid
regions
Population facing water
scarcity will more than
double over the next 30
years
The Challenge: Sustainable Fisheries
The Challenge: Sustainable use & conservation of biodiversity
Estimated 10-15% of the
world’s species could
become extinct over the
next 30 years
Biodiversity underlies all
ecological goods and
services
Climate change will
exacerbate the loss of
biodiversity
Agricultural
Lands
Coastal
Zones
Forest
Lands
Freshwater
Systems
Arid Lands &
Grasslands
Food and Fiber Production
Provision of Clean and Sufficient Water
Maintenance of Biodiversity
Maintenance of Human Health
Storage and cycling of Carbon, Nitrogen, Phosphorus
Climate change will affect the ability of ecological systems to
provide a range of essential ecological goods and services
The Challenge: Sustainable Management of an Ever-Changing Planet
Key Findings
• Climate change is not just an environmental
issue, but a development issue
• Global and regional changes have been
observed in the chemical composition of the
atmosphere, earth's surface temperature,
precipitation, extreme climatic events, sea
level
• These have caused changes in biological,
physical and socio-economic systems
• Most of the observed warming of the past 50
years is attributable to human activities
Questions 1 & 2
Key Findings
• Future changes in atmospheric composition
and climate are inevitable with increases in
temperature and some extreme events, and
regional increases and decreases in
precipitation, leading to an increased risks of
floods and droughts
• There are both beneficial and adverse effects
of climate change, but the larger the changes
and rate of change in climate, the more the
adverse effects predominate with developing
countries being the most vulnerable
Question 3
Key Findings
• Adaptation has the potential to reduce
adverse effects of climate change, but will
not prevent all damages
• Inertia is a widespread characteristic of the
interacting climate, ecological and socioeconomic systems which means that the
impacts may not be observed for decades to
centuries and mal-adaptations may be
implemented
Questions 3 & 5
Key Findings
• Greenhouse gas emissions in the 21st
century can set in motion large-scale, highimpact, non-linear, and potentially abrupt
changes in physical and biological systems
over the coming decades to millennia
• Sustained warming of a few oC over millennia
is projected to lead to an increase in sea
level of several meters due to loss of
Greenland and Antarctic Ice
Question 4
Key Findings
•
Stabilization of the atmospheric concentration of CO2
will require global emissions to decline to only a small
fraction of current emissions -- even after stabilization
of CO2 concentrations, sea level will continue to rise
for millennia
•
Stabilization of carbon dioxide at 450ppm and
1000ppm would result in an equilibrium temperature
rise of 0.9 to 2.5oC and 2.9 to 7.5oC above 1990
levels, respectively. Increases in non-CO2
concentrations would increase these estimates
•
The lower the level of stabilization of greenhouse gas
concentrations the greater the benefits in terms of
avoided damages
Question 6
Key Findings
•
There are many opportunities, including
technological options, to reduce near-term
emissions, but barriers to their deployment exist,
and cost estimates vary greatly
•
There are substantial opportunities for lowering
mitigation costs, e.g. by using all greenhouse
gases, the Kyoto trading mechanisms and sinks
• On the other hand, costs are under-estimated
because models assume emissions trading without
transaction costs and that economies have already
begun to adjust to meet Kyoto targets
Question 7
Key Findings
• Emissions constraints on Annex I countries
have well-established “spill-over” effects on
non-Annex I countries
• Technology development and diffusion are
important components of cost-effective
stabilization
• The pathway to stabilization and the
stabilization level itself are key determinants
of mitigation costs
Question 7
Key Findings
• Local, regional and global environmental
issues are inextricably linked and affect
sustainable development – climate change,
loss of biodiversity, stratospheric ozone
depletion, desertification, freshwater
availability and air quality are all inter-linked
• The primary factors underlying most
environmental and socio-economic issues
are similar, i.e., economic growth, broad
technological changes, life-style patterns and
demographic shifts
Question 8
Key Findings
• There are synergistic opportunities to
simultaneously address these issues that
enhance benefits, reduce costs and more
sustainably meet human needs
• The capacity of a country to adapt or mitigate
can be enhanced when climate policies are
integrated into national development policies
– economic, social and environmental
Question 8
What is Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference
with the Climate System?
•
Deciding what constitutes “dangerous
anthropogenic interference to the climate system” is
a value judgment determined through socio-political
processes informed by scientific, technical and
socio-economic information
•
The basis for determining what constitutes
“dangerous anthropogenic interference” varies by
region and sector and depends upon:
–
the impacts of climate change, which depends
on the rate and magnitude of climate change,
and
– adaptive and mitigative capacity
What is Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference
with the Climate System….
•
Climate change decision-making is a sequential
process under general uncertainty
•
Climate change is part of the larger challenge of
sustainable development
Climate Change – An integrated framework