Transcript What is Climate Change?

Climate and Other
Changes:Emerging
Challenges
SESSION 1
Ruth Sarra Guzman
Professor, Rizal Technological University
and Board Chair, PATLEPAM
Manila, Philippines
Outline
 Introduction
 Global warming and Climate Change
 Science of Climate Change
 Impacts of Climate Change
 Coping with Climate Change
 Climate Change Links to Sustainable Development
 Vulnerable Sectors
Which is the face of Climate Change?
?
More
destructive
typhoons and
flood
Lower yields due
to drought
Melting snowcaps
Coral
bleaching
Science of
Climate Change
Climate and Weather:
What is the Difference?
Weather
refers to the mix of
events that happen each day in our
atmosphere including temperature,
rainfall and humidity.
Mon
Tues
Wed
Thurs
Fri
Sat
Sun
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Climate is described in terms of
the mean and variability of
temperature, precipitation and wind
over a period of time, ranging from
months to millions of years.
Factors that influence
the Earth’s Climate
“The earth’s climate is driven by a continuous flow of energy”
A variation in the Sun’s output
may externally vary the amount
of solar radiation received by the
Earth’s atmosphere and surface
Changes in the concentrations of
atmospheric gases, mountain
building, volcanic activity, and
changes in surface albedo may
cause and internal variation in
the Earth’s climate
What is Climate Change?
“ A statistically significant variation in either the
mean state of the climate or change in precipitation,
temperature and wind, persisting typically
decades or longer”
- Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
What is Climate Change?
“Change in the climate
attributed directly or
indirectly to human
activities , in addition to
natural climate variability
observed, over a comparable
time periods” - United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
Factors responsible for
Climate Change
“The earth’s climate is driven by a continuous flow of energy”
Variations in the Earth's
orbital characteristics.
Volcanic eruptions
Variations in solar
output
Variations in
Atmospheric
composition
Greenhouse gases (GHGs)
Carbon Dioxide, Methane, Nitrous Oxide, Ozone,
Halocarbons, Water vapor and other industrial
gases
Exists in the Earth’s atmosphere
Natural temperature control system
Allows solar radiation (sunlight) to pass through and
traps infrared radiation (heat) thus warming the
atmosphere
The Greenhouse Effect
Atmospheric levels of
GHGs have nearly
doubled in nearly
150 years, from 280
ppm CO2e to 430 ppm
- Inter-governmental Panel on Climate C
Rise in GHGs related to
Human Activities
Carbon dioxide:
Burning of
fossil fuels and deforestation
Methane and nitrous
oxide: Agricultural activities,
land use and wetland changes,
pipeline losses, and covered vented
landfill emission
Ozone:
Automobile exhaust
fumes
Long-lived industrial
gases: CFCs, HFCs and PFCs
Global Projections
Global Predictions
Global surface
warming of
1 - 4oC
is expected
in
G
100 years
Global Predictions
Sea level
rise (m)
to rise by
9 to 88 cm
by 2110
during the 21st century relative to 1980 to 1999 under SRES
scenarios A1B, A2 and B1.
Figure 10.31
Global Predictions
Global precipitation is expected to increase
Frequency and intensity of extreme weathers
are likely to change
Evidences of
Climate Change
Evidences of Climate Change
since the late 19th
century, global average
temperature increased
by 0.6 + 0.2
Mean sea level has risen
by 10 – 20 cm and
increase of ocean water
temperature.
Snow cover declined by
10% since the late 1960s
Evidences of Climate Change
G
Evidences of Climate Change
Increased frequency of extreme weather events
Impact of
Climate Change
Water resources
Impact of Climate
Change
Agriculture and food security
Forest
Coastal areas
> Temperature increase
> Sea level rise
> More rain
Species and natural areas
Human health
Impact on Flora and Fauna
Predictability of season
Bird and fish migration
Change in plant and animal
species diversity
Impact on Human Systems
Water system
1. Poor quality
2. Insufficient water supply and unpredictable
timing
Health
1. Changes in infectious disease vectors
2. Increase heat related mortality
Agriculture and Forestry
1. Change in planting pattern
2. Occurrence of pests and diseases
Impact on Natural Systems
Enlargement of glacial lakes
Thinner sea ice
Short freezing season of
lake and river ice
Impact of Climate Change
Additional people with
Increased water stress (50C)
20 to 30% species at inc. high
risk of extinction (2-30C)
Decrease (low latitudes) (1-20C)
Increase (mid & high latitudes) (1-20C) (impact is
beneficial)
30% loss of coastal
wetlands(3-40C)
Increased mortality due to heatwaves,
floods and drought (10C)
Reconfiguration of coastlines and
inundation of low-lying areas (50C)
Impact of
Climate Change in Asia
Future climate change is likely to affect
agriculture, risk of hunger and water resource
scarcity with enhanced climate
variability
Decrease in
Freshwater
availability in
Central, South,
East and SouthEast Asia,
About 2.5 to 10% decrease
in crop yield (2020s) and
5 to 30% (2050s)
Future climate change is likely to affect
agriculture, risk of hunger and water resource
scarcity with enhanced climate
variability
About 49 M people could go
hungry in the next 20 to 30
years
Loss of lives and of coastal
ecosystems very likely due to
sea-level rise and flooding
Sea-water intrusion and
declining river runoff is likely
to increase the habitat of
brackish water fisheries
Marine and coastal ecosystems in Asia are
likely to be affected by sea-level rise and
temperature increases
Coastal inundation is likely to
seriously affect the aquaculture
and infrastructure
Stability of wetlands,
mangroves and coral reefs
likely to be increasingly
threatened
Between 24%and 30% of the
coral reefs likely to be lost
during the next 10 years to 30
years
Future climate change is likely to continue to
adversely affect human health in Asia
Disease primarily associated
with climate change are
expected in South and SouthEast Asia
Increases in coastal water
temperature would exacerbate
the abundance and/or toxicity
of cholera in south Asia
Climate Change and
other development issues
Climate Change and its linkages
with Sustainable Development
SD and Climate Change
Sustainable
development
policies
Sustainable
development




Alternative development pathways
Sectoral environment/ economic policies
Institutional/managerial changes
Innovation/ technological change




Climate
Climate
change
change
policies
Avoided climate change damage
Ancillary benefits/costs
Spillovers/trade effects
Innovation/technological change
Two-way linkages between climate change and sustainable development. Source: Swart et.al (2003)
Efforts to cope with the impacts of climate change
and attempts to promote sustainable development
share common goals and determinants
• Access to resources
• Equity in the distribution
of resources (i.e. human
and social capital)
• Access to risk-sharing
mechanisms
• Abilities of decisionsupport mechanisms to
cope with uncertainty
Nonetheless, some development activities
exacerbate climate-related vulnerabilities
High rise building in
urban areas
Processing
plants
Land use change/Mining
in natural forests
(Irresponsible mining)
Road
development
Climate change will result in net costs into
the future; these costs will grow over time
By 2080, it is likely that :
1.1 to 3.2 billion people
will be experiencing water
scarcity
200 to 600 million will be
hungry
2 to 7 million more per
year affected by coastal
flooding
Climate change will impede nations’ abilities
to achieve sustainable development
pathways as measured, for example, by
long-term progress towards the Millennium
Development Goals
Damage estimates as % of global GDP
Climate Change and its linkages
with Disaster Risk Management
CLIMATE CHANGE – DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT
CONVERGENCE
DISASTER RISK
MANAGEMENT
Geophysical
Hazards
Climate/Weather
Related Hazards
Risk Reduction
Measures
CLIMATE
CHANGE
Increase in Temp.
Sea Level Rise
Extreme Weather Events
Adaptation
Measures
Mitigation
Measures
Imperatives to address the
Climate Change Challenge
The United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change (UNFCCC)
“Laid the foundations of the contemporary global environmental policy “
Adopted on 9 May 1992 in New York and signed by more than 150
countries and the European Community.
“stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in
the atmosphere at a level that would prevent
dangerous anthropogenic interference with the
climate system.”
It contains commitments for all Parties to return greenhouse gas
emissions to 1990 levels by the year 2000.
“ While the Convention encouraged
industrialized countries to stabilize GHG
emissions, the Protocol commits them to do so”.
Adopted by consensus at COP-3 in December 1997
Contains legally binding emissions targets for
industrialized (Annex I) countries
Annex 1 countries commit themselves to reducing their
collective emissions of six key greenhouse gases by at least
5%.
must be achieved by the period 2008-2012.
“Demonstrable progress” must be made by 2005.
Division of Parties by Annex
Annex II
Australia / Austria / Belgium /
Canada / Denmark / EC /
Finland / France / Germany /
Greece /Iceland / Ireland /
Italy / Japan / Luxembourg /
Netherlands / New Zealand /
Norway / Portugal / Spain /
Sweden / Switzerland / Turkey
/ United Kingdom / USA
Belarus / Bulgaria / Croatia /
Czech Republic / Estonia /
Hungary / Latvia / Liechtenstein
/ Lithuania / Monaco / Poland /
Romania / Russian Federation /
Slovakia / Slovenia / Ukraine
Non-Annex I Countries = All the Rest of Ratifying Countries
Article 12: Clean Development
Mechanism (CDM)
• Assist Parties not included in Annex I in achieving sustainable
development
• Assist Parties included in Annex I in achieving compliance with
their quantified emission limitation and reduction commitments
under Article 3
• Assistance Mechanism is through funding of CDM Projects in
Developing Countries
Vulnerability to
Climate Change
Vulnerability: Agriculture Sector
Current climate
Agricultural production is
highly vulnerable to
increasing temperature,
particularly, night time
temperatures, changes in
rainfall events/patterns,
particularly those due to
extreme weather/climate
events, and high winds
during tropical cyclone
occurrences.
Future climate
Food security in the Philippines hinges in the
agricultural production of the country,
principally on sufficiency of rice production.
Vulnerability: Coastal Sector
 Sea level rise
 land loss and population displacement
 increased flooding of low-lying coastal areas
agricultural impacts resulting from inundation,
salinization and land loss
impacts on coastal aquaculture
impacts on coastal tourism
 Increase sea temperature/ Increase CO2
 coral bleaching
 ocean acidification
 impacts on fishery
 Socio-economic factors
Vulnerability: Coastal Sector
Vulnerability: Health Sector
Indirect cause: Climate
sensitive infectious
diseases (vector, water
borne)
• The number of leptospirosis
cases is high when the volume of
rainfall is high.
• The number of malaria cases is
high when the mean temperature
is high.
Direct cause: Floods,
storm surge
Vulnerability: Forestry and Watershed Sector
The sector now accounts
for up to 20-25 percent of
the current yearly GHG
emissions worldwide.
Unsustainable change of
land uses poses a big
threat to the environment.
Loss of forest habitat due
to destruction, degradation
and climate change is
projected to increase plant
and animal species loss.
Loss of watershed values.
Vulnerability to
specific impacts
of climate
change will be
most severe
when and where
they are felt
together with
stresses from
other sources
Habitat Climate Invasive
ChangeChange Species
TROPICAL
Ove
rexpl
oitat
ion
Pollut
ion
(nitrogen,
phosphorus)
Habitat Change: Very high impact, Increasing trend
Climate Change: Low impact, Increasing trend
Pollution: Very high impact, Increasing trend
Invasive Species: High impact, Continuing trend
Over-exploitation: Low Impact, Continuing trend
Responses to
Climate Change
RESPONSES TO CLIMATE CHANGE
“ No Regrets Approach “
Adaptation
Mitigation
Adaptation
Mitigation
An anthropogenic intervention to
reduce the sources or enhance
the sinks of greenhouse gases.
Adaptation
Practical steps to protect countries
and communities from the likely
disruption and damage that will
result from effects of climate
change
Climate Change
Mitigation
Strategies
“ Activities expected to reduce the sources or
enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases.”
Four Areas of Mitigation
1. Increasing GHG sinks
2. Material Replacement
3. Energy Conservation
4. Fuel Substitution
All Sectors and Regions have potential to
contribute to reduce GHG emissions or
implement CC mitigation measures
Note: estimates do not include non-technical options, such as lifestyle changes.
Options to reduce GHG emmisions in the
energy sector
Technologies and Practices
AVAILABLE NOW
• efficiency;
• fuel switching;
• renewable energy (hydropower,
solar, wind, geothermal and bioenergy);
COMMERCIALIZED BEFORE 2030
• biomass and coal-fired electricity
generating facilities;
• advanced renewable energy (tidal
and waves energy, concentrating
solar, solar and solar PV)
CCS- carbon capture and storage
Potential share of global electricity supply in 2030 for carbon prices < US$50/tCO2eq:
Renewable energy: 30-35% (now 18%)
Nuclear energy: 18% (now 16%)
Options to Reduce GHGs
emissions in agriculture
Cropland management
Restoration of organic soils
Rice management
Options to reduce
GHG emmisions in Forestry
Protection of
Forest Resources
Reforestation
Climate Change
Adaptation Strategies
“ Practical steps to protect countries and communities
from the likely disruption and damage that will result
from effects of climate change”
http://www.flickr.com/photos/twml
abs/29463820/
Why adapt to climate change?
Adaptation Options
1. Bearing losses
2. Sharing losses
3. Modifying threats
4. Preventing effects
5. Changing uses
http://www.flickr.com/photos/twml
abs/29463820/
6. Changing location
7. Research
8. Education, information and
behavior change
Adaptation: Agriculture
1o C temp increase in June to August
Use of more disease and pest tolerant crop varieties
Livestock production
Plant native grassland species
Fishery
Breeding fish tolerant to high water temperature
Develop Agri-Biotechnologies
Improve crossbreeds of high productivity animals
Improve agri- infrastructures
Improve irrigation systems and their efficiency
Adaptation: Agriculture (Gaps and Needs)
 creating enabling environment for private investments in agriculture
climate-fit crop programming and climate-based cropping mix in
highly vulnerable agricultural areas;
production maximization in climate-proofed farming areas, particularly
those with moderate rainfall;
developing policy environments for sustainable development of
highland ecosystems (500-1000 masl) for future expansion areas for
food and nutrition security without further intrusion nor desecration of
remaining forestlands;
increasing local capacity to compete with global products within local
markets; and
harmonizing food and bio-energy development and other economic
uses of agricultural activities, and technological support systems for
food security
Adaptation: Hydrology and water resources
conversion of cropland to forest
(grassland)
selection and cultivation of new
drought-resistant varieties are
effective measures to prevent
water scarcity
Water saving schemes for
irrigation
Adaptation: Coastal and low lying areas
Coastal protection constructions in Asia for 5-year to 1,000year storm-surge elevations need to be considered.
Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) provides an
effective coastal protection strategy
Adaptation: Natural Ecosystems
Improved tree plantation
development and reforestation
technologies
Improvement of protection from
fires, insects and diseases
Reducing logging waste, thru
soil conservation practices,
Carbon-efficient wood utilization
Adaptation: Human Health
monitoring of diseases
benchmarking of
potential impacts of
climate variability and
change on human
health
Planning and Policy Formulation
Mainstreaming sustainable
development policies and
the inclusion of climateproofing concepts in
national development
initiatives are likely to
reduce pressure on natural
resources and improve
management of
environmental risks
The Intergovernmental Panel on
CC 4th Assessment Report 2007
(AR4):
• Warming of the Climate System
is
UNEQUIVOCAL!
ACT NOW
BEFORE EVERYTHING GOES UP IN SMOKE
By Sebastian Niedlich (Grabthar) on Flickr
Thank you