Transcript Food Supply and Climate Change - PSR

Catherine Thomasson, MD
Physicians for Social Responsibility
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Competition for scarce resources
Migration
Partial social structures/gov’t control
Demographic & economic inequities
Gender inequality, youth bulge/unemployment
Abundance of lootable resources
Slide c/o CL Parker, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 2013
Coastal
flooding,
damage
Sea level rise
Extreme weather
events
Infestation
↑ runoff rates
More
frequent
droughts,
floods
Changed hydro
cycles
transpiration rates,
soil moisture,
precipitation
patterns
Degradation
of farm land
erosion, nutrient
depletion,
compacting,
salinization, loss
to urbanization
Erosion,
silting
water,
food
Reduced irrigation
capacity
Overuse,
pollution of
water supplies
Adapted from Homer-Dixon 1999
Slide c/o CL Parker, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public
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Health, 2013
• 2.3 billion people live in
water stressed areas
• 1.7 billion live in water
scarce areas*
By 2025: 3.5 billion
people projected to live in
water stressed areas
• 2.4 billion in water
scarce areas*
By 2100: 1/3 world risk of
extreme drought**
*UNEP // **Burke et.al. Journal of
Hydrometeorology Sept. 2006
Slide c/o CL Parker, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg
School of Public Health, 2013
• Grain yields  by 10% for every 1°C  in global
average surface T°
• 2°C to 3°C  likely; 3°C to 5°C  possible
• Therefore 20% to 30%  likely;
• 30% to 50%  possible
Slide c/o CL Parker, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg
School of Public Health, 2013
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Pop: 22 million
Size of N. Dakota
Hot and dry in summer, rainy and mild in winter
Was a middle income developing country
11% below the poverty line (0.06% less than U.S.)
10% of pop in 2007 were refugees (Iraqi, Palestinian,
Lebanese)
• Repressive government/some corruption
Syria Vegetation
Health Index
From 2006 to 2011:
• 60 percent of land affected by
drought
• 1 million in 2007 with (75%)
crop loss
• Herders sold animals for 6070% below original price
• Required wheat importation
for first time.
• Sandstorms were happening
up to twice a week.
http://www.preventionweb.net/english/hyogo/gar/2011/en/bgdocs_Erian_Katl
an_&_Babah_2010.pdf
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The Global Food System and Climate Change
CLIMATE CHANGE
Social, Political & Economic Factors
Meat consumption
Technology
Policies
Economic Development
Food Prices
Adaptation
Resilience vs
Vulnerability
Global
Global
Food
Food
Sectors
Production
Production
Agriculture
Livestock
Wild Sectors
Fisheries
Aquaculture
Agriculture
Livestock
Wild Resources
Fisheries
Aquaculture
Land
Water
Resources
Energy
Land
Soil
Water
Labor
Energy
Soil
Labor
?
Global
Food
Supply
Distribution
Population
Conflict
Poverty/Inequality
Income
Food Aid
Individual
Food
Supply
Access
Slide c/o CL Parker, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg
School of Public Health, 2013
• 60 quantitative studies
• Associations between
climate variables and
conflict over time
S M Hsiang et al. Science
2013;341:1235367
S M Hsiang et al. Science 2013;341:1235367
• More violent behavior in high temperature
climates.
• In low-income settings, extreme rainfall events
that adversely affect agricultural income are
associated with higher rates of personal violence
and property crime.
• High temperatures associated with increased
property crime, but most with violent crimes
• Intergroup political conflict increases in low-income
areas with
• Low water availability
• Very low temperatures
• Very high temperatures.
• Political conflicts often have a direct link a to climateinduced changes in income.
• Reports of effect of climate on conflict is relatively
standard: consistent with 35 studies of modern data
and 28 other studies of intergroup conflict.
• Kenya: deforestation  less rain and more run-off 
water scarcity  hundreds killed in inter-ethnic water
wars
• Most water conflict has been intra-national
Slide c/oCL Parker, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 2013
• Control of Water Resources: water supplies or access are at the root
of tensions
• Military Target: where water resources/systems are targets of
military actions by nations or states
• Military Tool: water resources/systems used as a weapon during a
military action
• Political Tool: water resources/systems themselves used for a
political goal
• Terrorism: water resources/systems are targets or tools of violence or
coercion by non-state actors
• Development Disputes: water resources/systems are a major source
of contention/dispute in context of economic development
www.pacinst.org
Slide c/o CL Parker, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of
Public Health, 2013
↓ water,
food
Migration,
expulsion
“Supplyinduced
scarcity”
Population
growth
“Demandinduced
scarcity”
Unequal
resource
access
“Structureinduced
scarcity”
Increased
environmental
scarcity
Ethnic
conflicts
Weakened
states
Decreased
economic
productivity
Adapted from Homer-Dixon 1999
Coups
d’état
Deprivation
conflicts
Slide c/o CL Parker, Johns
Hopkins Bloomberg School of
Public Health, 2013
Supply-induced Scarcity:
• Almost all freshwater comes from groundwater
• Annual rainfall = 70 - 140 million cubic meters
• 60% of that becomes runoff to Mediterranean or is lost to
evaporation
• Only 40% left to recharge single freshwater aquifer
• Aquifer is shallow, >90% is contaminated by sewage, agricultural
runoff, and saltwater
• 50-60 million cubic meters = sustainable supply
Slide c/o CL Parker, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public
Health, 2013
Demand-induced scarcity:
• Consumption: 3x natural
supply
• Population increases
Slide c/o CL Parker, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 2013
• Strict quotas on Palestinian consumption
• Frozen at 1967 levels
• Palestinians: 137m³/person—Israelis: 2000m³/person
• Palestinians prohibited from drilling new wells or repairing
water/sewer infrastructure
• Uneven pricing schemes
• Palestinians pay 20 times what Israeli settlers pay for water
• Neighborhood desalination provide fresh drinking water to
~20% population; rest buy bottled drinking water
Families pay 1/3 their monthly income for water
Slide c/o CL Parker, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 2013
• Climate impacts are observable,
measurable, real, and having near
and long-term consequences”
• Failure to anticipate and mitigate
these changes, the report states,
“increases the threat of more failed
states with the instabilities and
potential for conflict inherent in such
failures.”
• Scarce resources can be used as a tool
• Cooperate to manage environmental resources
• transform insecurities and
• create more peaceful relationships between parties in dispute
• overcome political tensions
• promoting interaction, confidence building, and technical
cooperation
-Geoffrey D. Dabelko,
Woodrow Wilson International Center
for Scholars
Slide c/o CL Parker, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg
School of Public Health, 2013
www.PSR.org
202-667-4260
Engage scientific community to identify
• Regions of high risk
• Elements of climate change related risk
• Food, water, migration, disaster, population, disease
• Elements of resilience
• What allows communities faced with catastrophe to NOT devolve into
conflict?
• How can the US assist in fostering these elements to prevent future
conflict
Slide c/o CL Parker, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public
Health, 2013