Transcript Plan B 3.0
B 计划 3.0版本摘要 A Summary of Plan B 3.0: 为挽救文明而动员 Mobilizing to Save Civilization, a book by 作者 Lester R. Brown 地球政策研究院 Chinese Translation 中文翻译 : Vicky Lau Overview 概览 是B计划的时候了 Time for Plan B ! 一个备受困扰的文明 A Civilization in Trouble • • • • Lessons from China 从中国吸取的教训 Three New Stresses 三种新的紧张 – Peak Oil 高峰的石油量 – Rising Food Insecurity 粮食不稳飙升 – Climate Change 气候改变 Failing States 失败的国家 Tipping Points 尖锋的尽头 • Stabilizing Population, Eradicating • • • • • • • Poverty 安定人口、灭贫扶困 Restoring the Earth 挽救地球 Plan B Budget B计划预算案 Climate Action Plan 气候行动计划 Putting a Price on Carbon 给碳标价 A Wartime Mobilization 战乱的动员 Pieces of the Puzzle 拼图的碎片 Let’s Get to Work 我们来动手吧 Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand 一个备受困扰的文明 A Civilization in Trouble • World facing a backlog of unresolved social and environmental problems 世界面对着一连串尚未解决之社会和环境问题 – Rapid population growth, rampant poverty, hunger and disease in many countries 在众多国家迅速增长之人口、蔓延的贫穷、饥馑和疾病 – Water tables falling and rivers running dry 地下水位下降和河流渐趋干涸 – Forests shrinking 森林萎缩 – Soils eroding, grasslands turning to desert 水土流失, 草原变为沙漠 – Species disappearing, fisheries collapsing 物种消失, 鱼获崩溃 Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Steven Allan 从中国吸取的教训 Lessons from China • • • • If China’s per capita income reaches U.S. levels by 2030 and consumption patterns follow, China would need 如果中国的国民 平均收入在2030年之前达到美国的水平，并且消费模式亦紧随追 上，中国将需要 : 2 times current world paper production 目前世界生产量2倍的纸张 > 1 billion cars, compared to the current world fleet of 860 million 超过10亿辆汽车, 比现今8亿6千万部的世界汽车总数还要多。 Paved area equal to its rice-growing area 水泥铺盖的地面面积相当于它的大米种植面积 More oil than the world currently produces 较目前世界上之原油生产量更多的石油 Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand 从中国吸取的教训 Lessons from China • Western economic model – fossil fuel-based, automobilecentered, throwaway economy – will not work for China. 西方的经济模式 --- 以化石燃料为基础、汽车为中心、用完即弃的 经济 --- 在中国将行不通。 • If it will not work for China, it will not work for India, nor for the other 3 billion people in developing countries. 如果它在中国行不通, 也不会适用于印度, 或者其他发展中国家的 30亿人民。 • In integrated global economy, it will no longer work for industrial countries either 在全球一体化的经济下，它于工业国家里也将不再行得通。 Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand 三种新的紧张 Three New Stresses 1. Peak Oil 峰顶的石油量 2. Rising Food Insecurity 粮食不稳飙升 3. Climate Change 气候改变 峰顶的石油量 Peak Oil • Top 20 oil fields were all discovered between 1917 and 1979 排名前20位的油田都早于1917年至1979年之间已被发现了 • Since 1981, oil extraction has exceeded new discoveries by a widening margin 自1981年以来，石油开采量不断以日益增大的幅度超越了新发现的石油资源。 • World conventional oil reserves drop each year, with most of the easilyrecovered oil already pumped 由于大部分最易恢复的石油资源已被抽取 ，世界的常规石油储存量正逐年下降。 Peak production of conventional oil is on our doorstep, if not already here. In a world where oil production is no longer expanding, one country can get more oil only if another gets less. 峰顶的常规石油量要是还没来到，也就是已经踏上了我们的家门槛。 在这样一个石油产量已无法扩大的世界，一个国家若能得到更多的石油，除非 另一个会获得较少。 Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Brasil2 粮食不稳飙升 Rising Food Insecurity • Supply Tightening 供应收紧 – Little unused arable land 少量尚未使用的耕地 – Irrigation potential plateaued 灌溉潜力已达饱和 – Slowing growth in crop yields 农作物产量增长日益放缓 • Demand Growing 需求与日俱增 – Adding > 70 million to world population annually 每年世界人口增长4千万人 – 4 billion people desire to move up the food chain and eat more grain-intensive livestock products 7千万人渇望将食物链提升到食用大量谷物之牲畜肉类所制成的食品 – Food vs. Fuel: Expanding biofuel production means that cars and people compete for crops 食物与燃料的对垒 : 也就是说，扩张制造生物燃料意味着汽车和人们需争夺农作物。 The number of hungry people in the world fell between 1970 and the 1990s. Now this number is growing and will continue to rise unless these trends are reversed. 1970至1990年代期间, 世界上饥饿的人数下降了。现在，除非这些趋向被扭转, 否则这项 数字反过来正在增加，而且继续上升。 Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand 气候改变 Climate Change • Since start of Industrial Revolution, carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere has risen from 277 parts per million to 387 parts per million 自工业革命以来，在大气中的二氧化碳 (CO2) 已从百万分之277上升到百万分之387。 • • • Burning fossil fuels – coal, oil, and natural gas – emits 7.5 billion tons of carbon each year 燃烧化石燃料 --- 煤、石油和天然气 --- 每年就排放75亿吨的碳于大气中 Deforestation emits 1.5 billion tons each year 砍伐森林每年散发15亿吨的碳 Electricity generation and transportation are the largest sources of CO2 emissions, with coal-fired power plants the biggest culprit 发电和运输是二氧化碳排放量最大的来源，而燃煤电厂是最大的罪魁祸首。 • As CO2 accumulates, global temperature rises. 随着二氧化碳的积累，全球气温便上升。 Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand 1880至2007年全球平均气温和大气中的二氧化碳含量 Average Global Temperature and Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentrations, 1880-2007 气温 气 温 : 摄 氏 度 二氧化碳 资料来源：美国宇航局 二 氧 化 碳 含 量 : 每 百 万 分 大 气 中 的 数 据 气候改变 Climate Change • The earth has warmed an average 0.6°C (1.0°F) since 1970 自1970年以来, 地球气温平均上升了0.6 ℃ • Rising temperatures fuel stronger storms and increase cropwithering heat waves 持续升高的气温发动了更强劲的风暴和更多使农作物枯萎的热浪 • The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects earth’s average temperature will rise 1.1 - 6.4°C (2.0 - 11.5°F) during this century 跨国气候变化专注委员会（ IPCC ）预期地球的平均气温将于本世纪 上升摄氏1.1至6度（ 华氏2.0 - 11.5度 ） Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / dra_schwartz 冰层融化 Ice Melting • Losing our Reservoirs in the Sky 失去我们的天空水库 : – Mountain glaciers rapidly disappearing worldwide 全世界的山脉冰川将迅速消失 – Himalayan and Tibetan-Qinghai Plateau glaciers feed the major rivers of Asia during the dry season, providing critical irrigation water for agriculture 喜马拉雅和青藏高原的冰川在旱季融化, 汇集成为亚洲的主要河流， 提供关键的农业用灌溉水。 – If melting continues at current rates, rivers like the Yellow, Yangtze, Ganges, and Indus could become seasonal, devastating wheat and rice harvests 如果融化按现行速率继续进行，像黄河、长江、恒河和印度河等 的河流都可能被变为季节性，毁灭着小麦和稻米的收成。 Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand 冰层融化 Ice Melting • Rising Seas 海面上升 – Massive Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets are melting at accelerating rates 庞大的格陵兰岛和南极西部冰原正加速融化Together hold enough water to raise sea level 12 meters (39 feet) 总共有足够提高海平面12米（ 39英尺）的水 – A 10 meter rise in sea level today would inundate coastal areas home to more than 600 million people 海平面上升10米将可淹没今天沿海地区超过6亿人的家园 The risk is that climate change could spiral out of control, making it impossible to arrest trends such as rising temperatures, ice melting, and rising seas, threatening food security and creating hundreds of millions of climate refugees. 危险的是 : 气候变化可能会变得失控，使人类无法捕捉其趋势，如气温升高、 冰雪融化、海平面上升和威胁粮食安全, 并创造数以亿计的气候难民。 Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand 压力上升 Pressures Mounting • The backlog of unresolved problems is growing as the world fails to solve existing problems even as new ones are added to the list 即使新的问题都增加到名单中了，但因为世界没有成功地 解决现有的问题，未解决的问题便积压地增长。 • The risk is that these accumulating problems and their consequences will overwhelm more and more governments, leading to widespread state failure 风险是这些积累的问题和他们的后果将淹没越来越多的政 府，导致普遍的国家失败 。 Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Steven Allan 失败的国家 Failing States • States fail when governments lose control of part or all of their territory, and can no longer ensure their people’s security 当政府控制不住部分或所有他们的疆土时，国家便会发生故障，并且可 能不再保证它的人民安全。 • Rapidly growing populations, resource depletion, and political stresses are pushing more countries such as Afghanistan, Haiti, and Sudan toward state failure each year, increasing instability around the world 迅速地日益增长的人口、资源取尽和政治紧张，每年压迫更多国家朝失 败方向发展; 例如阿富汗、海地和苏丹，增加环球性的不稳定。 How many failing states will it take before civilization itself fails? 在文明本身失败之前，多少国家将陷入失败的状态？ Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / wweagle 尖锋的尽头 Tipping Points • • • • Can we address the root causes of state failure in time to avoid global political instability? 我们可以及时公佈国家失败的起因，以避免全球性的政治不稳定吗？ Can we halt deforestation before the Amazon rainforest dries out, becoming vulnerable to fire? 在亚马逊雨林变干、变得难以抵抗火灾之前，我们可以制止砍伐森林吗？ Can we close coal-fired power plants fast enough to avoid losing the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets? 我们可能够快地关闭燃煤发电厂来避免失去格陵兰和南极西部的冰床吗？ Can we cut carbon emissions quickly enough to keep temperature from spiraling out of control? 我们能够来得及削减碳排放，足以保留温度不致于超越控制吗？ Business as usual is not working – It’s time for Plan B. 和平常一样运作已经行不通 – 是采取B计划的时间了。 Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand B 计划 : 四个主要目标 Plan B : Four Main Goals 1. Stabilizing Population 稳定人口 2. Eradicating Poverty 根除贫穷 3. Restoring the Earth’s Natural Support Systems 恢复地球的自然支柱系统 4. Stabilizing Climate 稳定气候 Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Joe Gough 稳定人口 及 根除贫穷 Stabilizing Population and Eradicating Poverty • Universal primary education 普及初等教育 • Eradication of adult illiteracy 扫除成人文盲 • School lunch programs for 44 poorest countries 为44个贫穷国的学校设立午餐项目 • Assistance to preschool children and pregnant women in 44 poorest countries 对44个贫穷国的学前儿童和孕妇提供协助 • Reproductive health care and family planning services 生殖医疗保健和家庭生育计划服务 Total Additional Annual Cost = $77 billion 年度额外总费用 = $770 亿美元 Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Wallenrock 修复地球 Restoring the Earth • • • • • • Protecting and restoring forests 保护和恢复森林 Conserving and rebuilding soils 保存和重建土壤 Protecting biodiversity 维护生物的多样性 Restoring fisheries 修复渔业 Stabilizing water tables 稳定地下水位 Planting trees to sequester carbon 种植树木以隔离碳害 Total Additional Annual Cost = $113 billion 年度额外总费用 = $1,130 亿美元 Photo Credit:: Fundacion Zoobreviven B 计划预算 Plan B Budget Additional Global Annual Expenditure Needed: 全球每年额外开支需要： Basic Social Goals 基本社会目标 $ 77 billion 770 亿美元 Restoring the Earth 修复地球 $ 113 billion 1,130 亿美元 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------Total Budget 总预算 $ 190 billion 1,900 亿美元 Perspective 透视 : This equals just 1/6 of annual world military spending 这合计等如每年世界军费的六分之一 Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / prill 气候行动计划 Climate Action Plan Cut Global Net CO2 Emissions 80% by 2020 2020年之前削减全球性二氧化碳排放净值80% Three components 三个组成部分 : 1. 2. 3. Raising energy efficiency and restructuring transportation 提高节能和重整运输 Replacing fossil fuels with renewables 用可循环更新性的燃料替换矿物燃料 Ending net deforestation and planting trees to sequester carbon 结束净砍伐森林和种植树木以隔离碳害 … to prevent globalatmospheric CO2 concentrations from exceeding 400 parts per million, minimizing future temperature rise. … 防止全球大气内的二氧化碳含量超出每百万分之400， 使未来的升温减到最小 。 Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Grafissimo 提升能源效益 Raising Energy Efficiency • Buildings 建筑物 – Retrofits with better insulation and more efficient appliances can cut energy use 20 to 50% 改用更好和更有效的隔热设备，可以减少使用能源达20至50 ％ • . Lighting 照明 – A worldwide switch to highly-efficient home, office, industrial, and street lighting would cut electricity use 12%, equivalent to closing 705 coal-fired power plants 全球切换到一种高效率的家庭、办公室、工业和街道照明，用电量将减少12 ％ ，相当 于关闭705间燃煤发电厂。 • Appliances 家电 – Japan’s Top Runner Program uses today’s most efficient appliances to set tomorrow’s standards; e.g. helped boost computer efficiency by 99% 日本排名亚军的电器计划利用当今最有效的电器设备来确立明天的水平; 例如 提高了电脑的效率达99 ％。 Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / IsotopeStudios 提升能源效益 Raising Energy Efficiency • Industry 工业 – Improving manufacturing efficiency for carbon emissions heavyweights (chemicals, petrochemicals, steel, and cement) offers major opportunities to curb energy demand 改进碳排放量高的重工业之生产效率（化学品，石化，钢铁，水泥） 将为遏制能源需求，提供主要的机会。 • Transportation 交通运输 – Restructuring transport to emphasize rail, light rail, and bus rapid transit, would save energy while making walking and cycling safer 重整运输至加强铁路、轻轨和快速公交，将可节约能源，同时使步行 和骑自行车变得安全。 Moving from oil to electricity reaps big gains 从使用石油转为使用电力，可将盈利大幅提升。 Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / IsotopeStudios 一项新的汽车经济 A New Automotive Economy • Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) running primarily on emissions-free electricity generated by the wind and the sun would allow for low-carbon short-distance car trips 充电式的混合动力电动汽车（ PHEVs ）主要靠零排放的风力和太阳 能供电而运行，所产生的电力可适用于低碳排放的短距离汽车行程。 • Combining a shift to PHEVs with widespread wind farm construction would allow drivers to recharge batteries at a cost equivalent of less than $1 per gallon of gasoline 结合转用PHEVs汽车，连同广泛的风力发电场建设，将允许司机充电 电池的成本相当于每加仑汽油不到1美元。 Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / mm88 B计划之能源效率测量 Plan B Energy Efficiency Measures 能源单位 改善建筑物的绝缘效能 国际能源机构的能源需求轨迹 改善照明效率 改善电器效率 改善工业效率 调整交通运输 B计划的效率轨迹 资料来源 : 环保学院和国际能源机构 年 1 Exajoule 能源单位 =:1 x 1018 Joule 热量单位 年 取代化石燃料的可再生能源 Replacing Fossil Fuels with Renewables • • • • Wind 风力 Solar 太阳能 Geothermal 地热 Other 其它 : - Small-scale Hydro, Tidal and Wave Power. 小规模的水力、潮汐和 波浪能源。 - Biomass 生物燃料 Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Gary Milner 利用风能 Harnessing the Wind • • • • • • Centerpiece of Plan B energy economy B计划的核心能源经济 Abundant – North Dakota, Kansas, and Texas alone could satisfy U.S. energy needs 丰富 ：仅北达科他州、堪萨斯州、和德克萨 斯州美国已能满足整个美国的能源需求。 Widespread – in every country 广泛 ：存在于每一个国家 Increasingly inexpensive 越来越便宜 Plan B goal : 3 million MW of installed capacity worldwide by 2020 B计划的目标：到2020年，全球装置可达到 300万兆瓦的产量。 Need 1.5 million 2-MW turbines installed by 2020 在2020年之前 需要安装150万座 2兆瓦的风 力涡轮机 世界累计之风力发电装置 兆瓦 来源 ：世界风能理事会 Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Joe Gough 太阳的力量 The Power of the Sun 1975 – 2007年 世界光伏生产累计 • Technologies include photovoltaics (PV), solar thermal power plants, solar hot water and space heaters 科技包括光伏（太阳能） ，太阳能 发电厂，太阳能热水器和温热器。 • Sunlight hitting the earth in 1 hour could power global economy for 1 year 阳光照射在地球上1小时足可以应付 全球经济1年 • Plan B goal: Solar heating, electricity each exceed 1 million MW installed capacity by 2020 B计划的目标：到2020年，太阳能供 热和供电各超过一百万兆瓦的装置量 兆瓦 来源 ：世界观察研究所，Prometheus学院， REN21 Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / katyakatya 地热能源 Geothermal: Energy from the Earth • Heat in the upper 6 miles of earth’s crust contains 50,000 times the energy found in global oil and gas reserves 在地壳表皮深至6英里的岩层内包含 了达全球石油和煤气储备之50,000倍 的热能量 • Plan B goal : increase geothermal heating 5-fold to 500,000 thermal MW, and geothermal electricity production 22-fold to 200,000 MW by 2020. B计划目标: 增加利用地热至现时之 五倍，达五十万兆瓦，并且提升地热 发电至22倍，到2020年之前达二十万 兆瓦。 Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Animean 2006年之世界电力生产和实施B计划下预期的2020年对比 World Electricity Generation by Source in 2006 and in the Plan B Economy of 2020 百分率 非水力之可循环资源 i 生物发电 地热能源 水力发电 太阳能 核能 风力发电 天然气 石油 水力发电 煤 天然气 核能 g 停止净砍伐森林、种植树木 Ending Net Deforestation, Planting Trees • Ending net deforestation by 2020 can reduce annual CO2 emissions by 1.5 billion tons of carbon 2020年结束净砍伐森林可使每年二氧化碳排放减少15亿吨 • Planting trees and adopting less-intensive farming and land management practices can stabilize soils and sequester carbon 种树、采取较不密集的农业和实践土地管理可以稳定土壤和隔 离碳污染。 Adding these measures to our renewable energy goals will allow us to reduce net CO2 emissions 80% by 2020. 增加这些措施到我们的再生能源目标将有助我们于2020年减少二 氧化碳排放净值达80%。 Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / AVTG B计划之2020年对二氧化碳放量的减排目标 Plan B Carbon Dioxide Emissions Reduction Goals for 2020 百万吨碳 余下之排放净值 管理土壤以隔离碳污染 使用再生能源 取代化石燃料 种植树木 以隔离碳害 停止净砍伐 重组运输系统 减少工业用煤与石油 2006年基本碳排放量 = 九十一亿八千万吨 资料来源：环保学院 给碳污染标价 Putting a Price on Carbon • Problem : Price of fossil fuels does not reflect costs of climate change, markets not telling ecological truth. 问题： 化石燃料的价格不能反映气候变化的代价，市场没有讲述生态 的真相。 • Solution : Tax restructuring 解决方案： 改组征税 – Plan B proposal : Raise tax on carbon emissions by $20 per ton each year, to exceed $200 per ton of carbon by 2020. B计划的建议： 提高对碳排放的征税，以每年每吨20美元，到 2020年时每吨超过200美元。 – Offset carbon tax with reduction in income taxes 减少所得税以抵消碳征税 Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand 战乱的动员 A Wartime Mobilization • On entering World War II, the U.S. mobilized resources and completely restructured its economy within months. 进入第二次世界大战时期，美国调动资源，在几个月内彻底改组了 它的经济。 • Protecting the U.S. drove this mobilization; saving civilization will require action equal in urgency, but much larger in scale. 此次调动为保护美国而作出；挽救文明将需要采取同等迫切的行动， 而且规模要大得多了。 • We have the technologies necessary to implement Plan B – what is needed now is the political will to do so ! 我们有所须的技术实施B计划 - 现在需要的是肯这样做的政治意愿！ Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand 拼图的碎片 Pieces of the Puzzle Countries and cities around the world give a sense of WHAT IS POSSIBLE ： 世界各地的国家和城市提供一种什么是可能的意识： • In Copenhagen 36% of commuters bike to work 在哥本哈根， 36% 的就业居民骑自行车去上班。 • Iran cut its rapid population growth rate from 4.2% in the early 1980s to 1.3% in 2006 through national literacy, health, and family planning programs 依朗从1980年代开始，通过扫盲、保健、及计划生育，把原来以4.2%高速增长的人口 降低到2006年的1.3% 。 • China has 40 million rooftop solar water heaters harnessing energy equal to the output of 54 coal-fired power plants 中国有四千万部天台太阳能热水器，所利用之能源相当于54间燃煤电厂的总输出。 • Japan’s high-speed rail system moves hundreds of thousands of passengers each day, measuring delays in seconds 日本的高速铁路系统每天载送数十万计的乘客，却只有以秒数计的误点。 Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / sandernagel 拼图的碎片 Pieces of the Puzzle • Once almost treeless, South Korea has reforested 65% of its land 一度几近无树，南韩已将65%之国土恢复造林。 • In the Philippines 19 million people get electricity from geothermal power plants 在菲律宾，一千九百万人民由地热资源发电厂取得电力。 • In Germany a systematic shift of taxes from labor to energy reduced annual CO2 emissions by 20 million tons and created 250,000 jobs between 1999 and 2003 在德国， 从1999至2003年，系统化地转移劳动税至能源税，使每年的二氧 化碳排放量减少二千万吨，并产生了二十五万份工作。 • Denmark gets 20% of its electricity from wind and is aiming for 50% 丹麦的20%电力来自风能，而且目标正朝向50% 。 • Proposals for 90 coal-fired power plants in the United States have been shelved since 2007 在美国，曾经拟建的90座燃煤电厂已从2007年起被搁置。 Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand 我们一起来行动 Let’s Get to Work Saving civilization is not a spectator sport. – Lester R. Brown 挽救文明并非一项旁观的运动。 – B 计划 作者 Lester R. Brown • What You Can Do 您可以做什么 – Educate yourself on environmental issues 教育自己关于环境的题项 – Spread the word : letters to the editor, op-eds, internet 广泛传播 : 投稿、公开教育、互联网 – Get politically involved : let elected officials know what’s important 争取政治参与： 让民选官员知道什么是重要的 – Take action in an area that is important to you, such as closing coal-fired power plants, tax restructuring, or ending net deforestation. 在一个对你很重要的领域中采取行动，例如关闭燃煤电厂、改组税收结构， 或结束净砍伐森林。 Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Denisenko 决择在我们手里 The Choice is Ours • Will we stay with business as usual and preside over an economy that continues to destroy its natural support systems until it destroys itself ? 我们将停留在如常的做事方式，并主持一种继续破坏其自然支持系统 的经济，直到它自我摧毁吗？ OR 还是 • Will we adopt Plan B and be the generation that changes direction, moving the world onto a path of sustained progress? 我们将采取B计划，并成为改变方向的一代，把世界推动到可持续发 展的路途上？ The choice is ours. It will be made by our generation, but it will affect life on earth for all generations to come. 决择在我们手里。这将是我们这一代人所造就的，但它会 影响地球上一切生命的所有后代。 Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / kycstudio 请到访我们的网站 了解更多资讯 及免费提取 地球政策学院 各项刊物的详尽版本 「我们都应该听从取作者Brown的劝告。」 - 柯林顿总统 Visit our website for more information and free fulltext copies of all Earth Policy Institute publications: www.earthpolicy.org 地球政策研究院 Chinese Translation 中文翻译 : Vicky Lau