Transcript site evaluation/infrastructure

Snow, Ice and Permafrost
Hazards Workshop
June 13, 2011
Pre-workshop Survey Results
Sarah Trainor, UAF
Lena Krutikov, UAF
Nils Andreassen, ION
Karlin Itchoak, ION
Thank You
for filling out the survey!!
23 Responses - 19 self identified
State, Federal, Private, University
ADEC (2)
ADGGS (2)
ADNR (4)
Division of Mining, Land and Water
Division of Oil and Gas
ADOT (1)
BOEMRE (1)
NOAA, National Weather Service (1)
NMFS (1)
USCG (1)
Alyeska Pipeline (1)
Private Consulting (1)
University of Alaska (UAA, UAF – 4)
Decisions related to snow, ice and
permafrost in Alaska.
Examples of types of routine decisions
Travel
Maintenance/Monitoring
Regulatory/Permitting/Safety
Site Evaluation/Infrastructure
Other
Information Needs
SNOW:
• Amount, form, & pre-existing conditions for driving safety.
• Snow pack, aufeis formation, temperatures.
• What snow and ice information is available and applicable to hydropower
staff in other regions?
ICE:
• Long term trends in sea ice coverage in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas;
length of the open water season on the OCS; percentage of ice coverage in
the fall shoulder season.
• Depth of burial for pilings and appropriate methods of installation; jacking or
subsidence issues; spring breakup conditions; offshore platform fires or oil
spills in non-open water conditions (broken ice); Cook Inlet ice effects on
platforms and rig accessibility.
• Extent of shorefast ice, ice shelf location, and depth of ice.
Information Needs - continued
PERMAFROST:
• Prominent direction of the wind, water source and what caused the subsidence.
• Local ground temperatures and variability with season and expected change with
time.
• Location and extent of ice-rich (thaw unstable) permafrost in existing and
potential transportation corridors.
• Forecasts and nowcasts from NWS and a sensor system for surface and subsurface
conditions.
• Near term and long term effects of cryospheric change in relation to geologic
hazards to infrastructure.
HYDROLOGY
• Location, discharge volumes.
• Hydrology, vegetation information.
• Effects of hydropower projects on NMFS trust resources - primarily anadromous
and marine fish and marine mammals.
Information Needs - continued
MIX/OTHER:
• Climate data and change of climate.
• Detailed current maps.
• The extents of snow, ice and permafrost. How and why these extents
are changing in space and time. What are predicted changes?
• Snow depths, soil temperatures, active layer depths, erosion and
subsidence in relation to gravel fill and remediation projects.
• Logging results from hydrocarbon exploration wells, seismic reflection
and seismic refraction data.
• Short and long term effects of access, exploration, development and
transportation activities for oil and gas resources development.
Comparison of site restoration with active human efforts to natural
restoration without intervention(s).
• Climatic, geography, materials stability.
Awareness of current research
Are you aware of current research at UA?
Yes
No
Collaboration with UA scientists
Do you collaborate with UA scientists?
Yes
No
Where do you go for scientific
information?
INTERNET:
General online search (7)
Specific websites (8) = ARLIS, NSSI, CRREL , USGS, UAF,
NOAA - NSIDC, AEDIS
LITERATURE:
General (4)
Internal historical literature (1)
Library (3) = Geophysical Institute library, personal library,
State Library System
Conference proceedings (1)
DIRECT COMMUNICATION:
Personal Contacts (4) = GW Scientific, CRREL, USGS, UAF
Phone calls (1) = UAF
Applicant (1)
Best ways to receive information
Good (or best) way to
get information
Bad way to get
information
Participation in scientific conferences
8
Peer-reviewed journal articles
9
3
1-page fact sheets sent via regular mail
2
2
4-6 page newsletter sent via email
1
1
Technical reports
7
Webinars/seminars/teleconferences
5
In-person science workshops hosted by
the University
7
On-line research database
7
Other
2
1
3
Best ways to receive information continued
OTHER:
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in-person workshops (local are best)
AEDIS should be restored and updated
Podcasts; iTunes U
Science workshops hosted by industry
Direct interaction with colleagues on an ad-hoc basis.
I'd like to see a “who’s who” of cryospheric research academia and agencies - NOAA, NASA, USGS, UAF, foreign
universities, etc. It can't be a very large pool!
• A well maintained, reliable, data rich web site - with
occasional announcements on updates through list serves
- like ArcticInfo
Has scientific research been useful
to you in your planning or decision
making?
Yes
No
Examples
SNOW/GLACIERS:
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Roadway snow quality.
Snow sampling methods.
Glacier lake outburst floods.
Changes in glacier mass balance and extent
Photo by M. Druckenmiller
ICE:
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Changes in sea ice.
Sea ice extent and character.
Forecasting ice shelf and thickness
Presence of permafrost in exploration wells.
The Joint Industry Project (JIP) looking at oil spill response in ice.
Examples - continued
PERMAFROST:
Changes in the depth of the active layer.
Forensic study of syngenetic permafrost in highway project.
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS:
Judging climate change impacts on coastal villages.
Climate change and ground temperatures
Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Hydropower in SE Alaska
OTHER:
Impacts from pollutants on water.
Constantly using research to advise the legislature, government, and
industry on potential hazards and resource investments
Oil and gas activity impacts.
How did you learn about the
research?
INTERNET:
General online search (4)
Peer-reviewed publications (3)
LITERATURE:
General review (4)
Industry Publications (1)
SELF :
My organization's own research
“Sought and found funding for it, found the right researchers and had it
conducted!”
“Sponsored funding after being approached by a UAF researcher.”
How did you learn about the
research? - continued
DIRECT COMMUNICATION:
Personal Contacts (2) = Colleagues, GW Scientific, Arctic Transportation
Network, UAF
Applicant (1)
Conferences (3) = e.g., Alaska Marine Science Symposium
Webinars (1) = ACCAP
SNAP (1)
OTHER:
Wave Hindcast Model
Caribou Steering Committee
Were you directly involved with the
research?
Yes
No
If yes, who did you work with?
UAF (10)
USGS (2)
GW Scientific (1)
SNAP (1)
What makes research especially useful
for your organization/ decision-making
process?
• Applicability to management decisions/
practical application
• Relevance to current activity
• Site specific
• Direct involvement
of practitioners
Communicating Uncertainty
• “The most important aspect of useful research
for decision making is relevance to current
activity. That is, how can a given hazard be
avoided or mitigated. Forecasting is somewhat
useful, but full disclosure of assumptions and
probabilistic distributions is critical. Non-science
personnel seldom understand probability, nor,
how it should be used in decision making.
Nevertheless, they often use the 'mean' and call
it good, sometimes with less-than-desirable
results.”
Barriers to more effective use of the
University of Alaska as a resource in
your planning and decision-making?
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•
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•
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•
•
COMMUNICATION!
What research is happening
Rapid publication of results
Coordination with agencies
Access to data and results
Research synthesis
Follow through
Transparency
Questions? Comments?
Contact:
[email protected]
907- 474 -7878
Photo by M. Druckenmiller
Decisions - Examples
• TRAVEL (10):
• Ice roads
– permitting, season opening, impact assessment, planning
& construction
• Roads
– permafrost related foundation & surface treatments
– treatments post snow and freezing rain
• Conditions for travel via car or small aircraft
– route selection, timing, tire selection
• Location for safe operation of aircraft and
cutters/boats
Examples – continued
MAINTENANCE/MONITORING (11):
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Snow disposal management.
Snow storage sites.
Pipeline maintenance.
Glacier lake outburst floods.
Spring breakup flood monitoring.
Glacier monitoring.
Advocate for state-wide monitoring network to improve
long-term projections of snow, glacial ice and
permafrost.
• Recommend monitoring of snowpack and glacier mass
balance in licensing procedure for hydropower projects.
Examples - continued
REGULATORY/PERMITTING/SAFETY (11):
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Agency - water use discharge permitting.
Issue approval to repair subsidence.
Issue approval for ice roads.
Safety: snowpack evaluation for safe mountain travel and rescue.
•
Safety related to offshore pipelines.
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Approval of projects with risk of hazards to infrastructure and people.
Dismantlement, Removal and Rehabilitation (DRR) of oil and gas
activity sites.
Review of applications for approval for surface land uses related to oil,
gas and geothermal resource development
Safety related to siting offshore drilling.
Regulation of oil and gas activities in Alaska.
Recommend projections of future precip, temp, snowpack, glacier
mass balance and permafrost changes for new hydropower projects.
Decide how to stabilize degrading permafrost to prevent clean water
act violations.
Treatment technology required in zone where subsurface organics
present in discontinuous permafrost zone.
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Examples - continued
SITE EVALUATION/INFRASTRUCTURE (12):
• How are these changes impacting people, property or
infrastructure?
• Where are changes in snow, ice and permafrost occurring?
• Site location for field measurements.
• Issue approval for snow fences.
• Foundation designs in permafrost.
• Construction: foundation selection.
• Construction.
• Seasonal operational planning.
• Location of supporting infrastructure.
• Type and operation of subsurface/surface infrastructure.
• Permafrost stability under my house.
• Presence or absence of near surface permafrost.
Examples - continued
OTHER (7):
• Oil spill response decisions.
• Oil discharge prevention and contingency plans.
• What other physical processes are involved or impacted
in association with these changes?
• Topics for university teaching.
• Material sources in permafrost conditions.
• Probability of gas hydrate occurrence on Alaska
continental shelf.
• Recreation based on snow conditions.
• Snow thickness and its insulation capacity.
• Liquid residual handling methods.
Collaborative Projects
SNOW & GLACIER PROJECTS:
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Snow depth data collection methods.
Glacier related hazards.
Periglacial changes and associated hazards.
Snow modeling input in surface energy balance modeling
Tundra travel conditions
PERMAFROST PROJECTS:
• Permafrost slope stability analysis and monitoring (AUTC)
• Permafrost mapping and modeling in parts of interior Alaska
(pipeline corridor)
• Western Alaska permafrost project
• Tundra travel conditions
Collaborative Projects - continued
SNOW PROJECTS:
• Snow depth data collection methods.
• Snow modeling input in surface energy balance modeling
• Tundra travel conditions
PERMAFROST PROJECTS:
• Permafrost slope stability analysis and monitoring (AUTC)
• Permafrost mapping and modeling in parts of interior Alaska
(pipeline corridor)
• Western Alaska permafrost project
• Tundra travel conditions
OTHER PROJECTS:
• Energy Security
Collaborative Projects - continued
GLACIER PROJECTS:
• Glacier related hazards.
• Periglacial changes and associated hazards.
ICE PROJECTS:
• Sea ice atlas
• River ice safety
• Timing of river ice breakup with DGGS, SNAP, ASF and INE
ENGINEERING PROJECTS:
• UAA School of Engineering projects: numerous and diverse.
• Hydroelectric power facilities in Southeast Alaska
• Share information developed in our engineering practice from
across the state.
Collaborations
CRREL (2)
UAF (24)
UAA (1)
SNAP & ACCAP (2)
DGGS (1)
Extra glacier images
from Wikimedia Commons – Either public domain or fair use
Extra permafrost images
from Wikimedia Commons – Either public domain or fair use
Extra snow images
from Wikimedia Commons – Either public domain or fair use
Extra sea ice images
from NOAA