Transcript Climate Change Technology Needs Assessment for Thailand Water

Climate Change Technology Needs
Assessment for
Thailand Water Resource Management
Porranee Thanapakpawin
Surajate Boonya-Aroonnet
Pintip Vajarothai
Aungkana Pratumthong
Royol Chitradon
Hydro and Agro Informatics Institute (HAII)
Ministry of Science and Technology, Thailand
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Content
• The changing water situation: Impacts from
Climate change
• Management challenges
• Framework for technology needs assessment
• Prioritized adaptation technologies
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2001-2010 annual rainfall anomaly (mm)
compared to 1950-1997 average
1950-1997 average
1,374 mm./year
Rainfall has been above average in the past decade
Greater inter-annual variability compared to past
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Monthly rainfall map: March
compared to 1950-1997 average
Average
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
mm
(38.7)
(58.5)
(36.1)
(39.3)
(80.9)
(19.2)
(145.7)
(mm/month)
Greater change of monthly rainfall – timing, location,
and intensity (e.g. Season change)
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Monthly rainfall map: May
compared to 1950-1997 average
Average
(174.1)
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
(196.4)
(270.5)
(204.2)
(209.9)
(111.0)
mm
2011
(212.0) (mm/month)
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Monthly rainfall map: August
compared to 1950-1997 average
Average
(219.2)
2006
(244.8)
2007
(219.2)
2008
(187.6)
2009
(197.3)
2010
(299.8)
mm
2011
(288.8) (mm/month)
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Monthly rainfall map: September
compared to 1950-1997 average
Average
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
(236.0)
(248.7)
(233.1)
(268.5)
(227.2)
(222.4)
mm
2011
(314.9) (mm/month)
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Flood risk (left) and drought risk (right) areas
Several areas experience both flood & drought problems
Source: Disaster Prevention and Mitigation
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Thailand 2011 Flood
Photo taken Sep 14, 11: Surajate B.Aroonnet
Photo: thairath.co.th
Photo taken Sep 14, 11: Surajate B.Aroonnet
Photo: Channel 3
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El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) linked to
Climate change
El Nino and La Nina alternates more frequently.
Expect higher climate variability
Source: Climatic Data Center/NESDIS/NOAA
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Future projection of 2090-2099 annual runoff,
relative to 1980-1999
Project
increased
rainfall
ที11ม
่ า: IPCC (2551)
Management challenges: Thailand Water Infrastructure
 Only 6% of rainfall is collected in
large reservoirs
 High inter-annual reservoir inflow
variability (19% nation-wide,
20-30% regionally)
 Only 13% of agricultural areas is
irrigated
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Goal of Thailand WRM &
our technology needs
• Solve both flood & drought problems together
• Build water security for all user sectors
- Macro level: Irrigated agriculture, Industry, Urban areas
- Micro level: Rain-fed agriculture
• Targets of technology needs:
- Secure capitol water supply through storage & distribution
- Build management flexibility in all climate & demand scenarios
- Minimize disaster risks & impacts
- Build knowledge/know-how and data
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Framework for prioritizing “adaptation” technologies
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Review possible
technologies
The process for technology
Objectives
prioritization
Technology Group
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2
3
4
5
Multi Criteria
(High Impact)
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(Low Impact)
Criteria
Analyze from
output/outcome
Prioritized
echnology
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Analyze from
SWOT
Funding source
Internal funding
Domestic development
High
Impact
High
SWOT
External funding/
Technology transfer
High/Low
Impact
Low
SWOT
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Technology needs for macro-management
Rainfall
Now
2 month
4 month
Long-range weather
forecast (3-7 months)
Reservoir 5
Reservoir 4
Pond 1
Reservoir 3
Reservoir 1
Reservoir 2
Flood sensorweb
(Event detection, monitoring,
and decision support system )
Reservoir 6
Networking of water
infrastructures & management
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Community Water Resource Management (CWRM):
Secure water through integrated supply and demand management
 Application of science,
technology & innovation
 Knowledge management
 Capacity & collaborative
network building
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Success story of CWRM in a village in NE Thailand
Yearly Family
Data*
(Thai Baht)
Before
2007
2008
(with
CWRM)
2009
(with
Integrated
Farming)
2010
(CWRM +
Integrated
Farming)
INCOME
103,000
1,544,764
2,227,354
2,474,234
4,079,354
• Rice Field
103,000
417,850
621,060
973,630
844,370
• Farming
-
917,271
640,500
437,220
1,257,800
• Integrated
farming
-
209,643
965,794
1,063,384
1,977,184
Expenditure
114,000
693,496
1,067,451
890,341
1,479,606
Net Income
-11,000
851,268
1,159,903
1,583,893
2,599,747
Accumulating debt decreased from 2.6 million THB
to 1.84 million THB in 2009
*collected from 15 households in 2009
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Summary
• Goal of Thailand WRM: Water & agricultural security
• Technology needs: Flexible infrastructures & Better
management: planning , operation &
disaster management
• Macro-management:
- Networking of water infrastructures & management
- Long-range weather forecast (3-7 months)
- Flood sensorweb
• Micro-management: CWRM as a key risk-based
adaptation approach to cope with climate variability &
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build sustainable agriculture
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Integration of technology use
Risk assessment
Reservoir networking
Water flow network
Planning
Operation
Forecasting/
Modeling
Network &
Clustering
Disaster
management
Survey/observation
Telemeter
data
Remote
sensing/
GIS
Oceanic
data
Flash flood & landslide
warning
Users
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