Transcript 1100 CSS POST Climate Hauger 08182014x

Pacific Operational Science and Technology Conference:
S&T Opportunities to Strengthen the Asia-Pacific
26 August 2014
Image source: NPR
Opportunities in climate change
and environmental security
J. Scott Hauger, Ph.D.
APCSS
Theme
Climate change …
creates both a need and
an opportunity for
nations to work
together….
QDR 2014, p. 25
Sources
Agenda
• The security threat of climate change
• Knowledge needs to address the threat
• S&T opportunities to strengthen Asia Pacific
Agenda
• The security threat of climate change
• Knowledge needs to address the threat
• S&T opportunities to strengthen Asia Pacific
Environmental impacts of
climate change:
• Higher ocean temperatures.
– Evaporation, precipitation.
– Tropical cyclones.
– Rising sea levels.
• Higher air temperatures.
– Ice melt / snow runoff.
– More extreme weather
• Higher ground temperatures
– Desertification.
– Permafrost melting.
• Ocean acidification
Flooding Jakarta, Indonesia
January 18, 2014.
Image source: Wall Street Journal
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Environmental impacts of
climate change:
• Higher ocean temperatures.
– Evaporation, precipitation.
– Tropical cyclones.
– Rising sea levels.
• Higher air temperatures.
– Ice melt / snow runoff.
– More extreme weather
• Higher ground temperatures
– Desertification.
– Permafrost melting.
• Ocean acidification
Typhoon Heiyan, Tacloban, Philippines
November, 2013.
Image source: The Guardian:
Kevin Frayer/Getty Images AsiaPac
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Environmental impacts of
climate change:
• Higher ocean temperatures.
– Evaporation, precipitation.
– Tropical cyclones.
– Rising sea levels.
• Higher air temperatures.
– Ice melt / snow runoff.
– More extreme weather
• Higher ground temperatures
– Desertification.
– Permafrost melting.
• Ocean acidification
Mele, Maldives
Oct, 2013
Source: BBC
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Environmental impacts of
climate change:
• Higher ocean temperatures.
– Evaporation, precipitation.
– Tropical cyclones.
– Rising sea levels.
• Higher air temperatures.
– Ice melt / snow runoff.
– More extreme weather
• Higher ground temperatures
– Desertification.
– Permafrost melting.
• Ocean acidification
Nepal, Imja Valley
Image source: T. Bolch
SciTech Daily, 20 Apr 2012
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Environmental impacts of
climate change:
• Higher ocean temperatures.
– Evaporation, precipitation.
– Tropical cyclones.
– Rising sea levels.
• Higher air temperatures.
– Ice melt / snow runoff.
– More extreme weather
• Higher ground temperatures
– Desertification.
– Permafrost melting.
• Ocean acidification
Dust Sorm, SW Asia,
March 19, 2012.
Image source: US NASA
10
Environmental impacts of
climate change:
• Higher ocean temperatures.
– Evaporation, precipitation.
– Tropical cyclones.
– Rising sea levels.
• Higher air temperatures.
– Ice melt / snow runoff.
– More extreme weather
• Higher ground temperatures
– Desertification.
– Permafrost melting.
• Ocean acidification
Gobi region, Mongolia, 2011
Image source: Witnessimage
11
Environmental impacts of
climate change:
• Higher ocean temperatures.
– Evaporation, precipitation.
– Tropical cyclones.
– Rising sea levels.
• Higher air temperatures.
– Ice melt / snow runoff.
– More extreme weather
• Higher ground temperatures
– Desertification.
– Permafrost melting.
• Ocean acidification
Siberia, Russia, 2011
Source: NBCNews.com
12
Environmental impacts of
climate change:
• Higher ocean temperatures.
– Evaporation, precipitation.
– Tropical cyclones.
– Rising sea levels.
• Higher air temperatures.
– Ice melt / snow runoff.
– More extreme weather
• Higher ground temperatures
– Desertification.
– Permafrost melting.
• Ocean acidification
Coral reef bleaching 2012
West Papua, Indonesia
Image credit: Keith Ellenbogen
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Climate change and security
Climate Impacts
•Rising sea levels
•Tropical
cyclones
•More floods
•More droughts
•Riverine erosion
Human Security
Impacts
State Security
Impacts
•Freshwater access
•Conflict over:
•Blame
•Resources
•Migration
•Maritime
boundaries
•Increased stress on
weak governments
•Food production
•Infrastructure
destruction
•Disease outbreak
•Migration
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National Research Council Findings
• Expect increasingly more serious climate
surprises in the coming decade.
• Essential for the intelligence community
to understand adaptation and changes to
vulnerability to climate events.
• Prudent to expect some climate events
that exceed the capacity of affected
societies to manage.
OSD Assessment
The impacts of climate change may increase the
frequency, scale, and complexity of future
missions, including defense support to civil
authorities, while at the same time undermining
the capacity of our domestic installations to
support training activities. Our actions to
increase energy and water security, including
investments in energy efficiency, new
technologies, and renewable energy sources,
will increase the resiliency of our installations
and help mitigate these effects.
---QDR 2014, p. vi
DSB Findings: Role for DoD
• Build regional capabilities and alliances to
create climate change resilience.
• Prepare to respond to natural disasters.
• Assist foreign militaries to understand
climate change effects on force structure,
installations, and security.
• Build capacity for mitigation & adaptation.
Agenda
• The security threat of climate change
• Knowledge needs to address the threat
• S&T opportunities to strengthen Asia Pacific
Knowledge needs: NRC/NAS
• Improve ability to quantify likelihoods of climate events.
• Understand when climate disasters do/don’t lead to
security-relevant outcomes.
• A WoG strategy for monitoring threats connected to
climate change.
• Scenario development: “Stress test” countries, regions &
global systems for ability to manage disruptive climate
events.
Knowledge Needs: National Climate Assessment
•Research to Improve Understanding of Human-Environment Systems
•Climate forcings, feedbacks, responses, and thresholds in the Earth system
•Climate-related human behaviors and institutions
•Research to Support Effective Responses to Climate Change
•Vulnerability and adaptation analyses of coupled human-environment systems
•Research to support strategies for limiting climate change
•Effective information and decision support systems
•Research Tools and Approaches to Improve Both Understanding and Responses
•Integrated climate observing systems
•Improved projections, analyses, and assessments
Knowledge Needs: Defense Science Board
•Comprehensive climate information system to support
operational assessments.
•To develop local expertise in civil engineering, hydrology,
energy, agriculture, land use & Infrastructure planning so
developing nations can benefit from information.
•Better processes to coordinate & leverage U.S. agency efforts.
•Better insights into activities of other countries & international
organizations.
Agenda
• The security threat of climate change
• Knowledge needs to address the threat
• S&T opportunities to strengthen Asia Pacific
S&T Opportunities
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•
•
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Technologies for mitigation
Technologies for adaptation
The challenge of geoengineering
Knowledge needs for adaptation and response
Technologies for Mitigation
CO2 scrubber concept
Columbia University
Image source: The Telegraph
15 Aug 2014
Canal Top Solar Power Plant
by Hitesh vip - Own work.
Image source: Wikipedia Commons
Asia Pulp & Paper plantation,
Indonesia
Image source: Business Green
Plus, 20 Oct 2013
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Technologies for Adaptation
Source: UNFCCC. 2006. Technologies for
Adaptation to Climate Change.
“Unlike those for mitigation, the forms of
technology for adaptation are often fairly
familiar. Indeed, many have been tried and
tested over generations….” (pp.4, 11)
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Geoengineering S&T
Image source: climatecentral.org
“If a country experiencing a prolonged
drought, for example, seeks to engineer the
planet’s climate unilaterally, we will need to
be familiar with the potential consequences
in order to muster informed counterarguments. And if our more extreme climatechange predictions become reality and a
sudden climate emergency puts billions of
people at risk, the world should not find
itself collectively embarking on a crash
program of geoengineering in ignorance.”
-- M. Granger Morgan, 2009. Why geoengineering? MIT
Technology Review (21 Dec)
Knowledge needs for adaptation & response
• Regional observation system for relating climate change to
security threats.
• Methodologies that integrate social & ecological sciences for
threat characterization & prediction.
• Scenario development for impact assessments.
• Programs to develop local expertise in civil engineering,
hydrology, energy, agriculture, land use & infrastructure planning.
• Regional security structure development for information sharing,
planning and response.
Take away points
• Climate change creates both a need and an opportunity
for nations to work together.
• Mitigation & adaptation technologies largely outside
defense R&D system.
• Opportunities for research to relate climate change to
security threats.
– Need for regional observation system linking environmental
and behavioral sciences.
– Need for methodologies to predict security impacts.
– Need to foster S&T expertise in vulnerable partner nations.
Discussion
Image source:
Risk
Management
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Monitor