Transcript Sass_BakerInstFeb10x

ANALYZING WHERE
THE CANDIDATES
STAND ON THE
ISSUES
International Affairs
Ronald Sass, Fellow in Climate
Change
James A. Baker Institute for Public
Policy
THE ISSUE IS NOT SCIENTIFIC
The basic scientific development of climate change is
essentially complete.
97% of all climate scientists agree that the climate is
changing in a direction toward a warmer state and that
man, mainly through the use of fossil fuels, is a major
cause of that change.
The majority of Americans, including Republicans, agree
with the above statement.
So, why do the candidates for the Presidency of the
United States differ so widely in their position on climate
change?
THE HOTTEST YEAR ON RECORD. Globally, 2015 was the warmest year in recorded history.
HOW DOES THE GLOBAL TEMPERATURE RECORD APPEAR?
THE ISSUE IS INTERNATIONAL
The Conference of Parties (COP21) reaffirmed the goal of limiting global
temperature increase well below 2° Celsius.
Established binding commitments to make “nationally determined
contributions” (NDCs), to regularly report their progress and to undergo
international review.
Committed all countries to submit new NDCs every five years.
Obliged developed countries to support the efforts of developing countries with
funds and technology transfer.
Extended a mechanism to address “loss and damage” resulting from climate
change without establishing a basis for liability and compensation.
Signed by 195 countries and requires ratification by at least 55 countries
accounting for at least 55 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions by 2020.
THE ISSUE IS ECONOMIC
The vast majority of the world’s economy revolves around
energy sources or manufacturing techniques that produce
greenhouse gases and contribute to global warming.
The American fossil fuel industry is immensely profitable,
politically influential and a large component of the
portfolios of many individuals and companies.
The American free market approach to economy does not
consider the external costs of climate change.
Is it true that whatever we do with respect to climate
change will adversely affect the economy and cost jobs?
THE ISSUE IS POLITICAL
The Democratic candidates each have a plan that mainly
follows the current Administration’s stance on climate
change.
The Republican candidates reflect the current Republican
Congress commitment to oppose the incumbent
Administration on all issues, including climate change.
Both parties appear to be shifting to extreme positions,
Bernie Sanders on the left for example and Ted Cruz on
the right, leading to severe political polarization.
Which political party best represents our future interests
and those of our children?
Candidate’s
Stand on
Climate Change
Is real
Is man
made
Has called
for action
Will call
for action
Hillary Clinton
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Bernie Sanders
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Jeb Bush
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
No
No
Ben Carson
No
No
No
No
No
No
Chris Christie
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
No
No
Is complicated
No
No
No
No
No
Carly Fiorina
Yes
Yes
No
No
No
No
Jim Gilmore
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
No
No
John Kasich
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
No
No
Marco Rubio
Yes
No
No
No
No
No
Donald Trump
No
No
No
No
No
No
Ted Cruz
Has made Oppose
proposals Keystone
XL
Obama and Climate Change
Department of Transportation and the EPA issued new fueleconomy standards for cars and light trucks.
Twenty fold increased use of solar energy and tripled electricity
produced by wind power since President Obama took office,
Climate Action Plan to reduce the harmful effects of climate
change introduced in 2013.
Environmental Protection Agency to take steps to regulate carbon
dioxide emissions from coal-fired power plants. These proposed
steps will reduce carbon pollution 30% from 2005 levels by 2030.
In November of 2014, the President signed agreement with China
to work together to reduce carbon pollution in the next 15 years.
Democrats: I have a plan
Hillory Clinton: proposes a plan to install half a billion solar panels
across the country by 2020 and expand renewable energy (including
geothermal and hydro) sufficiently to produce 33 percent of U.S.
electricity by 2027. Her Clean Energy Challenge, partnering with states,
cities and communities, includes incentives, competitions, and
investment in transmission and R&D. Clinton is opposed to Arctic
drilling and supports extending the Production Tax Credit for
renewables.
Bernie Sanders: introduced climate change legislation to tax carbon
emissions, and secured $3.2 billion in the economic stimulus package
for greenhouse gas emission-reduction grants. Promotes a goal of 25
percent of electricity from renewables by 2025 and for the extension of
the Production Tax Credit. He led the fight against the Keystone XL
pipeline, and opposes fracking and Arctic drilling.
Republicans: Who needs a plan
Jeb Bush: Energy plan focuses on drilling and nixing regulations on
crude oil and natural gas exports. Increased emissions from these
policies won’t be a problem, technology will take care of it if needed.
Ben Carson: Says environmental science is beyond man’s control or
understanding. “Climate change is going on but there is no reason
to make it into a political issue.
Chris Christie: believes manmade climate change is real but has not
put forth any proposals to reduce emissions.
Ted Cruz: The facts do not support climate change and the theory
that human activity causes it is “pseudoscientific.” Government
researchers are “cooking the books” on climate change to have a
basis for controlling the economy and energy industry.
Marco Rubio: Believes climate change is happening, but not that it
is caused by man. “And I do not believe that the laws that they
[Democrats] propose we pass will do anything about it, except it will
destroy our economy.”
Donald Trump: Doesn’t believe in climate change and asserts that
the changes we see are actually just weather, unaffected by human
actions. He puts climate change low on the list of problems we need
to address. In 2012, Trump said global warming is a hoax created by
China to make U.S. manufacturing uncompetitive.
John Kasich: Believes climate change is real and manmade and has
called for action. He feels renewable energy should be a large part of
our energy mix and encourages research into new technologies. He
supports the approval of the Keystone XL pipeline and oil drilling
on federal lands. Kasich opposes the EPA’s Clean Power Plan.
A Few of the Quotes I Have Trouble With.
“The concept of global warming was created by and for the Chinese in order to make
U.S. manufacturing non-competitive.” Donald Trump
“I do not believe that human activity is causing these dramatic changes to our climate
the way these scientists are portraying it. And I do not believe that the laws that they
propose we pass will do anything about it, except it will destroy our economy.” Marco
Rubio
“For the people to say the science [on climate change] is decided on this is really
arrogant, to be honest with you.” Jeb Bush
“Today the global warming alarmists are the equivalent of the flat-earthers. You know
it used to be: ‘It is accepted scientific wisdom the Earth is flat.’ And this heretic named
Galileo was branded a denier.” Ted Cruz
“The volcano that erupted over in Northern Europe [in 2010] actually poured more
CO2 into the air in that single act of nature than all of humans have in something like
the past 100 years.” Mike Huckabee
WHAT ABOUT THE VOTER?
Climate change is by nature a very complex subject that
combines a multitude of scientific disciplines into a
biogeochemical system.
The data are highly statistical and everybody knows you can
prove anything by statistics.
Our leaders and the media are sending out a large number of
conflicting messages about climate change and what to do
about it.
Can we trust the voter will reach a reasonable decision based
on what he/she hears and what he/she believes?
Partisan Differences
Among Voters over
the Environment,
Helping the Poor,
Global Warming and
the Economy.
Percent rating each a top
priority
* 75% and above
support of political
group.
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THANK YOU
Too much thinking, too little action is a recipe for
fecklessness. Yet too much action, too little thought are
ingredients for a potential disaster.
Larry Cuban