Transcript peak transmission Mid NOV/early DEC 2009 Malaria and

GLOBAL PLATFORM
FOR Disaster Risk Reduction
Operational Climate services for managing SocioEconomic Risks Linked to the Changing Climate
The role of meteorological services in
adressing the public health impacts
of climate change
Lucien Manga
Program Manager for Public Heath and Environnement
WHO Regional Office for Africa
CLIMATE CHANGE: Africa projections
scenario
+4ºC
+2 ºC
Temperature
-20%
Rainfall
+20%
Source:IPCC AR4 WG1 ch 11
Relationships between weather and disease patterns in Kenya
Area
Start
Cessation
Nyanza/Western
Late Sept
2009
Jan/Feb2010
N/Eastern, Eastern
Early October
2009
End of December
2009
Rift valley
Early Nov
2009
N. Rift – end of Dec
2009
S Rift - Jan/Feb
Coast
4/3/2017
Early October
2009
End of December
2009
Wet
period
4-5
months
Probable health impacts
Severe Flooding – sanitation
problems, clean water, diarrhoeal
diseases ( peak period -immediate)
3 months Moderate Flooding – sanitation in
Wajir town, vector borne diseases
(Malaria ,RVF, haemorrhagic fevers)
peak transmission Mid NOV/early
DEC 2009
Malaria and RVF epidemics likely
2 months Vector breeding sites– vector
borne diseases (malaria) peak
transmission end Dec 2009 to - Jan
2010
3-4
Mild flooding - vector borne
months
diseases (Malaria RVF) peak
transmission end Dec 2009 to - Jan
2010 Malaria epidemics and
focalised RVF likely
3 months Moderate Flooding – vector borne
diseases peak transmission Mid
NOV/early DEC 2009 Localised
increase in malaria and filarial
transmission especially south
3
coast
Meteorological services in the African public health
climate change framework
• African ministers of health and environment Joint Statement on
Climate Change and Health.
• Essential Public Health Package to enhance climate change
resilience in developing countries.
• Africa moving towards an integrated environment and health
surveillance system to predict and prevent public health impacts of
climate change.
• Meteorological services and data are a central component in:
– the integrated environment and health surveillance system;
– Current health vulnerability assessments
– Development of early warning and response systems
• Meteorological forecast for early warning systems is a MUST in
Preparedeness, Readiness and Response.