Transcript Energy Demand Analysis and Energy Saving

Energy Demand Analysis and Energy Saving
Potentials in the Greek Road Transport Sector
Dr. Spyros J. Kiartzis
Director Alternative Energy Sources & New technologies
Christos Bitos, MSc
International Hellenic University
7th International Scientific Conference on Energy and Climate Change,
Athens, 9 October 2014
Looking ahead
• Decarbonizing transport is one of today's major challenges for the automotive
industry
• Transport is closely linked with economic activity
• For 2020-2040, it is not yet clear what type of cars will be used but it is likely
that improved conventional cars will still dominate the market
• Several alternative fuel/technology options are currently explored, such as
compressed natural gas and hybrid vehicles, fuel cells and hydrogen
• Transport activity will continue to increase in the future as economic growth
fuels transport demand and the availability of transport drives development
• Freight transport has been growing even more rapidly than passenger transport
and is expected to continue to do so in the future
7th International Scientific Conference on Energy and Climate Change – Oct 2014
2
No single technology or alternative fuel can solve the problems of
growing transportation
• Biofuels have the potential to replace a substantial part but not all petroleum
used by transport
• Ethanol and biodiesel can offer immediate benefits since compatible with
existing vehicles and fuel infrastructure
• Methanol (in the form of low-level blends with gasoline) and FT liquids are
compatible with existing vehicles and fuel infrastructure
• DME is able to use existing LPG infrastructure
• Hydrogen fueled Fuel Cell Vehicles will play a major role as a part of the change
towards a hydrogen based energy system
• Advanced technology vehicles, including hydrogen fuel cell or battery electric
vehicles, will continue to suffer from high cost and other limitations
7th International Scientific Conference on Energy and Climate Change – Oct 2014
3
The Greek road transport sector
• 5,216,873 cars and 1,026,362 light and heavy duty trucks, in 2010
• New vehicle sales: 141,501 cars and 11,938 trucks
• Average car ownership in Greece 461 cars per 1000 inhabitants in 2010, (lower
than Europe's average - 477 cars per 1000 inhabitants)
• Sector stayed stagnated, because of the economic recession
• Fuels considered as potential alternative in the near future: Electricity,
Hydrogen, Methanol, Ethanol, Biodiesel, Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) and
Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)
• Emission factors obtained from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, which is included in LEAP’s Technology Environmental Database
7th International Scientific Conference on Energy and Climate Change – Oct 2014
4
Scenario Analysis
• Energy consumption growth in transport slows to 1.1% p.a. between 2012 and
2035 (from 1.9% p.a. 1990-2012) primarily due to accelerating gains in fuel
economy
• Transport activity is expected to grow over the next decades
• For the period 2010-2035, end year sales are assumed to grow by 0.8% and
1.3% for cars and trucks respectively, fuel economy is assumed to improve
about 10% following efficiency trends and mileage is assumed to stay constant
for technologies already existing and increase for technologies that will be
introduced in the near future
• The Business As Usual (BAU) forecast illustrates what state energy use will look
like in the absence of additional policies beyond what is already planned
7th International Scientific Conference on Energy and Climate Change – Oct 2014
5
Greece BAU scenario
Sales share of cars and fuels per technology, in 2035
Technology
Fuel
Percentage
Internal Combustion Engine (ICE)
Gasoline
80%
75%
Diesel
20%
Hybrid
Gasoline
80%
7%
Diesel
20%
Electric Vehicles
Electricity
100%
2%
Fuel Cells
Hydrogen
70%
1%
Methanol
30%
Biofuels
Ethanol
50%
10%
Biodiesel
50%
Gas
CNG
80%
5%
LPG
20%
Sales share of trucks and fuels per technology, in 2035
Technology
Fuel
Percentage
Internal Combustion Engine (ICE)
Gasoline
50%
80%
Diesel
50%
Biofuels
Ethanol
50%
10%
Biodiesel
50%
Gas
CNG
90%
10%
LPG
10%
7th International Scientific Conference on Energy and Climate Change – Oct 2014
6
BAU and alternative scenarios for cars
Scenarios





Technology
EV
Fuel Cells
ICE
Hybrid
Biofuels
Gas
BAU
75%
7%
2%
1%
10%
5%
1
35%
7%
2%
1%
50%
5%
2
30%
7%
2%
1%
10%
50%
3
26%
7%
2%
50%
10%
5%
4
27%
7%
50%
1%
10%
5%
5
32%
50%
2%
1%
10%
5%
Scenario 1 present an increased introduction of biofuels against ICE
Scenario 2 present an increased gas introduction against ICE
Scenario 3 present an increased fuel cells introduction against ICE
Scenario 4 present an increased EVs introduction against ICE
Scenario 5 present increased hybrid introduction against ICE
7th International Scientific Conference on Energy and Climate Change – Oct 2014
7
Energy Demand of Vehicles Distributed in Different Technologies (BAU)
•
Vehicles increase from 6.2 million in 2010 to 6.9 million in 2035
•
Total energy demand increases from 246.4 million GJ (5.9 Mtoe) to 259 million GJ in 2035 (6.2 Mtoe), or -0.1% annually
•
Trucks have the highest energy demand, with about 53% share
7th International Scientific Conference on Energy and Climate Change – Oct 2014
8
Total Energy Demand of Vehicles (all scenarios)
7th International Scientific Conference on Energy and Climate Change – Oct 2014
9
Environmental Effects (all scenarios)
7th International Scientific Conference on Energy and Climate Change – Oct 2014
10
Conclusions
• The future energy demand in the Greek road transport sector up to 2035 was
analyzed using the LEAP model for different scenarios
• The number of vehicles increases to approximately 6.9 million vehicles in 2035,
accounting for 0.5% average annual growth rate
• Five alternative scenarios to BAU are introduced, presenting an increased
penetration of alternative technologies in new cars sales (biofuels, gas engine
vehicles, fuel cells vehicles, electric vehicles, and hybrid vehicles)
• Fuel economy improvement combined with the electric vehicle scenario would
be interesting strategies to reduce the total energy demand
• Increase in energy demand and pollutant emissions can be limited through
measures (e.g. alternative technologies and fuels, improvements on vehicles
efficiencies, taxation schemes for renewables promotion)
7th International Scientific Conference on Energy and Climate Change – Oct 2014
11