Transcript unusual japan

Asian climate change workshopintroduction
Julian Hunt
Trinity College Cambridge
University College London
TU Delft .
Themes –Asian and global
• Science
---CC phenomena;
--- Modelling ;Concepts
• Impacts/hazards
• Causes – emissions (ghg; pollutants)
- land surface ;
• Policies –Integrated approaches?
• Research and future collaboration
Not widely
known
By politicians
And policy
makers
-people
live on land!
Note IPCC-WMO
Curve presented
at International
meetings.
And to policy
makers .
Global Climate Data Trends 2011
UKMet Office
Global, Snow and Ice (UK Met Office)
Modelling of ice edge /extent is not reliable.
Effects of varying ice edge on ocean winds and currents could be
significant (studies at UCL)
SCHEMATIC OF CLIMATE CHANGE
PROCESSES-note geographic var’n
More convection in
moister atmosphere
Less snow/ice -> more
volcanoes?
_UPSLOPE
Unusual 
Usual ->
u u
u s
s
u
a
l
Deeper
convection?
(i) Buoyancy + upslope (Ls)
(ii)
upslope
turn right
Triggers convective upwind flow
(Note Lu  Luc + Ls
;
> 3*103 km)
L
uc

h
N
U
Lu as N , h ; H (Climate; Aerosol; QBO?)
Ls as H (Geology)
 2 * 10 3 km
1. Regimes
CLIMATE PATTERNS CHANGE WITH GLOBAL WARMING
EXTENDED STAGNANT
AIR
CASSOU & GULYARDI 2007
Asymmetric dishpan experiment-what
does el nino do to global circulations?
ASU (HpPeng)
Note + 2deg since 1950 –in data for 2010 .
Likely to exceed 4deg by 2100—cf Hansen warning (historic)
DRAG OF URBAN AREA –ALSO TURNS WIND
-WEAK BUOYANCY FORCES BELOW INVERSION LAYER.
NOTE DOWNWIND WAKE SCALE LR-EXTENDS OVER 10LR – (J.Chan HK)
500KM DOWNWIND OF MEGACITIES (J CHAN ..) ; (RIGHT DEFLN IF STRONG
CONVECTION OVER CITY AND LOW WIND)
STERN
GLOBAL
REVIEW
_NOT
VALID
AFTER
COP15?
NEW
IDEAS
FOR
2010----?
RANGES OF LIKELY EMISSIONS FOR DIFFERENT TYPES OF COUNTRY
Normal Economic Development or with sustainable development policies
E NED
-> DIFFERENT LEGISLATION FOR EACH
REGION/COUNTRY- AFTER CANCUN.
GLOBAL (NED)
DRI (LA)
DRI
ESD
Normal Econ Dev.
DRI ( LA)
ILPG
(G )
eq
E
2000
DRI 
IHPG
ILPG
IHPG
2100
Time
ILPG – Industrialized low pop. Growth (EU; Japan)
IHPG – Industrialized High pop. Growth (USA)
DRI – Developing- rapid industrialization- limited pop. Growth (China)
DRI(LA) – DRI plus large agricultural sector – high pop. Growth (India)
Sustainable
development (.)'
Fusion Research
Hybrid FusionFission?
Hybrid FF
Efficient use of uranium/
thorium resources
- no long term radioactive
waste (100 yrs)?
China – pilot project 2020?
No plans for Europe?
TOKAMAK Fusion Device
OR MORE WIND ENERGY?
Policy Issues
-Note International trend for national/regional policies on emissions/
conservation
-UNFCC/IPCC role is now monitoring , comparing, and predicting
-Need for International cooperation (including UN ) +ASIAN CLIMATE NETWORK?
*science, (monitoring ;modelling tropical/polar /terrestial effects on cc)
• technology-Clean Energy , water; deforestation; bioreactors
• Finance-Clean Development Mechanism; clean /green trading /pricing
• Governance- national/(regional?)climate legislation
• Cultural , Communications-eg water recycling , waste energy; low energy
food; life styles.
SUSTAINABILITY THROUGH INTEGRATION BY GOVERNMENTS, COMMUNITIES,
INDIVIDUALS IN DIFFERENT GLOBAL REGIONS
OF ENVIRONMENTAL , ENERGY, TECHNOLOGICAL , AND SOCIAL, SECURITY
POLICIES ?,
Note advantages – economy (eg adaptation (flooding)and mitigation (clean energy)
- public understanding/acceptance (with leadership)
Note problems – short term costs versus long term advantages.
(reF JH . Proc Inst Civ Engrs uk 2009)