Transcript Climate Change, Biodiversity Conservation, Population Growth and

Challenges of Sustainable
Development in Ethiopia
(Mekete Bekele Tekle)
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Ethiopia has many climate types, including:
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The Hot Arid,
Hot Semi-Arid,
Tropical with distinct dry winter,
Tropical Monsoon Rainy with short dry winter,
Warm Temperate Rainy with dry winter,
and Warm Temperate Rainy without distinct dry
season, etc
UNFCCC defines Climate change as ‘a change of
climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to
human activity that alters the composition of the
global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural
climate variability observed over comparable time
periods.’ (Art. 1 paragraph 2 of UNFCCC).
Are anyone of the following common and recurring
GREAT events Ethiopia related to climate change?
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Great
Green
Great
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Great
Famines
Famines
Floods
Forest Fires
Fighting (internal & external wars)
Ethiopia suffers climate shocks as a result of:
 dependence on rain-fed agriculture
 low adaptive capacity to climate change
 high vulnerability to adverse impacts of
climate change such as:
◦ Flooding
◦ Harvest failure
◦ Loss of livestock
These are some of the causes that trigger the “great”
adverse events in the country.
As part of the overall effort to alleviate poverty,
Ethiopia has plans, programs and strategies
to fight climate change. For example,
 Adaptation to climate change and mitigation
actions –such as tree planting, etc.;
 Creating public awareness about climate
change effects/impacts
 Working towards the MDGs through its Plan
for Accelerated and Sustained Development
to End Poverty (PASDEP) – poverty eradication
plan of action program
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Eradication of poverty through accelerated rural
development;
Agricultural Development-Led Industrialization
(ADLI);
Rehabilitation of the Environment;
Capacity Building for good governance;
Development of basic health services and primary
education;
Containing the AIDS pandemic, using all possible
approaches;
Consolidating peace and participatory democracy;
decentralization and building the capacity of each
region;
Integrating gender into all development activities.
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Implementing climate change adaptation &
mitigation through the National Adaptation
Program of Action (NAPA) and integrating the
same into the PASDEP
Investing in agricultural research on the use
of new crop varieties and livestock species
that are more tolerant to drought.
Ensuring public participation in formulating
climate change policies and in integrating
climate change into development priorities.
Recommendations at community level for adaptation
include:
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Investing in livelihood opportunities and risk management
strategies for poor farmers and pastoralists, particularly
women;
Improving agriculture extension services;
Preparing long-term adaptation;
Enhancing farmers’ traditional knowledge of adaptation;
Investing in new forestation and reforestation programs &
sustainable management of the remaining forests;
Investing in community environmental and drought
monitoring systems and disaster risk reduction capacity;
and
Increasing use of renewable energy such as solar energy.
Problems such as “population explosion” or population bomb” are much
debatable as there is no consensus among different scholars in the area.
About three decades ago Ehrlichs and Holdren wrote:
It is clear that the future course of history will be determined by the
rates at which people breed and die, by the rapidity with which
nonrenewable resources are consumed, by the extent and speed with
which agricultural production can be improved, by the rate at which the
underdeveloped areas can industrialize, by the rapidity with which we
are able to develop new resources, as well as by the extent to which we
succeed in avoiding future wars. All of these factors are interlocked.
[Paul Ehrlich, Anne Ehrlich and John Holdren, Eco-science, Population,
Resources and Development (1977) 1]
Could this assertion still be valid?
Population size and World ranking
Past (1970):
Current (2010):
Projection (2050):
29,673,211 (25th populous)
82,311,882 (15th populous)
187,892,174 (9th populous)
According to the recent UNDP and Oxford
University Multidimensional Poverty Indicators
(MPI) Ethiopia the second poorest country in the
world
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Ethiopia aims at harmonization of the rate of
population growth and capacity building for the
development and rational utilization of natural
resources to the end that the level of welfare of
the population is maximized over time.
(Population Policy of Ethiopia, 1993)
Some of the specific objectives of the policy
include:
◦ reducing the total fertility rate from 7.7 children per
woman to 4.0 by 2015;
◦ increasing use of contraceptives from 4 percent to 44
percent by 2015;
◦ reducing maternal and infant mortality rates;
◦ increasing the involvement of women in the economic
activities and ensuring environmental security
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Regardless of the fact that Ethiopian population’s
growth rate being one of the fastest in the world,
there are certain achievements towards the policy
goal. Some of the achievements are:
◦ fertility rate is on the decrease from 7.7 and projected to
be 4.8 by 2015;
◦ use of contraceptives has increased from 4 percent to
about 20 percent; The increased involvement of women
in the economic activities;
◦ the revision of the Ethiopian Family Code that abolished
forced marriage is believed to have contributed to the
decrease in the total fertility rate of maternal and child
mortality.
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Ethiopia adopted a program for Sustainable
Development and Poverty Reduction in 2002 and
managed to:
◦ Access to clean water reached 59.5% (86.2% for urban
and 53.9% for rural);
◦ Construction of several irrigation schemes to develop
millions of hectares of land to ensure food security;
◦ issuance of land titling certificates to farmers;
◦ Water harvesting for domestic use, livestock and plant
growth; and
◦ forestation and reforestation of hundreds of thousands
of hectares of land
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According to the 2003 Government and the UN
country Team joint report Ethiopia is required to grow
at the rate of 5.7% per annum to meet its MDGs.
Soon after the report the government started to
report about 11% or growth rates annually
A revised poverty eradication strategy, Plan for
Accelerated Sustainable Development to End Poverty
(PASDEP) was adopted and is believed to have
contributed the following achievements over the
period of four years (2004-2008):
◦ per capita income increase from $110 to $870;
◦ Rise of life expectancy at birth from 42 to 55 years;
◦ infant mortality rate had decreased while the total fertility
rate almost remains the same.
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Ethiopia’s claim for the sustained and rapid
economic (double digit) growth is being
refuted by experts and by the reality on the
ground.
According to the recent finding by UNDP and
Oxford University about 90% of Ethiopian are
poor while about 40% are below the poverty
line.
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The root causes of poverty in the Ethiopian
context are basically environmental problems
that affect the agricultural sector. The current
popular development agenda in the country is
achieving accelerated sustainable
development to eradicate
Though the process of poverty reduction
appears to be a daunting task and frustrating
the, it is hoped that Ethiopia will somehow
achieve its MDGs.