Transcript Climate Smart Agriculture

Climate Smart Agriculture:
Trends, Drivers, Global Context and the EU
Western Balkans Climate Resilience Workshop
Vienna, Austria, 11-12 May 2016
The Trends
What will it take - Feeding 9 Billion People in 2050
Changing Consumption
Changing Diets
Food Consumption by Region 2005/07 vs 2050
Percentage Increase 05/07 – 2050
183%
SSA
81%
79%
43%
SAR
MENA
LCR
CEA 2013 based on FAO 2012, CCAFS 2015
30%
EAP
11%
Developed
Climate Change Impacts on Food Systems – Here Today
PRODUCTION Volatility Impacts FOOD Prices
PRICE Volatility Impacts SHARE prices
Recent price spikes for food commodities have been linked to
extreme weather events
A price hike in corn (black) drives down the share price of
Tyson Foods (red)
Corn
Tyson’s
World Bank 2008, Reuters Eikon
Climate Change Impacts on Food Systems – Worsening Tomorrow
Decreasing Yields
Maize and wheat yields show climate impacts
Increasing Cost Structure
Price for beef increasing steadily due to pressure
from feed and pastureland markets
Beef from 2009-2014:
+100%
CCAFS 2014; Reuters Eikon
Climate Change Impacts on Food Systems – Uncertain Future
Disappearing Chocolate?
Yield Collapse?
Areas suitable for Cocoa production in Ivory Coast, today (top)
and in 2030 (bottom)
TODAY
2030
CIAT, World Bank
The Drivers
TODAY - The Food System is PART of the Climate Change Problem
TOTAL
EMISSIONS
LAND USE CHANGE
~11% OF TOTAL
Land Use
Change
11%
Buildings
6.4%
FOREST LAND
63%
BURNING BIOMASS
11%
IPCC 2014
Agriculture
13%
LIVESTOCK
62%
Electricity &
Heat
Production
25%
Transport
14%
CROPLAND
25%
AGRICULTURE
~13% OF TOTAL
FERTILIZATION
16%
Industry
21%
Other Energy
9.6%
RICE - 10%
OTHER - 12%
Who’s Emitting in Food Systems?
Agricultural Emissions in Mt CO2e/y
California Environmental Associates 2013, unpublished. Based on data from FAOSTAT 2010.
What’s Emitting in Food Systems?
Global emissions by commodity, 2008
The European Context
EU Total Emissions 2013: 4,477 million tonnes CO2eq
Source: Eurostat
EU AG Emissions 2012: 407 million metric tonnes CO2eq
Source: FAOSTAT
TOMORROW – The Food System could be THE Climate Change Problem
Projections of Global, Agriculture and Land Use Change Related Emissions towards 2050 (Gt CO2e)
Global Emissions:
49.1 Gt
Agriculture Business
As Usual
Ag. Reduces Proportional
to Other Sectors
Global Emissions:
21-22 Gt
~25%
of Total
11%
14%
5.4 Gt LULUCF*
6.4 Gt Agriculture
TODAY
~70%
of
Total
25%
5.4 Gt LULUCF*
45%
9.5 Gt Agriculture
- 5.5 Gt
60% GAP
4 Gt Agriculture
2050 - ‘2C’ Ensuring Emission Level
By 2050, Agriculture and Land Use Change
could represent 70% of Global Emissions if global emissions are reduced in
accordance with a 2C goal, while
Agriculture were to remain in business as
usual.
WRI 2013
Global Emissions:
21-22 Gt
*Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry
By 2050, Agriculture will have to reduce its
emission intensity by 60%, if it is to
maintain its footprint in parallel with overall
emissions reductions. This assumes
emissions from Land Use Change will have
fallen to zero.
The Backstory
Growth in AG commodity demand toward 2050…
Kharas, 2011
Global meat consumption driving the demand for feed and emissions
National Geographic Magazine – “Food”
Not only driving emissions - Not all water is consumed equally
Efficient production definitely does not correspond with efficient consumption
45%
25%
22%
19%
15%
SHARE OF AVAILABLE FOOD THAT IS LOST OR WASTED
WRI 2015
17%
23%
So, where are the solutions?
Poverty, Hunger, Climate and Climate Smart Agriculture
WHAT IS THE CHALLENGE?
To build food systems that meet increasing demand while remaining
profitable and sustainable in the face of Climate Change.
WHAT WILL IT TAKE?
1.
2.
3.
CAN IT BE DONE?
Increasing productivity sustainably
Enhancing the resilience of producers
and supply chains
Reducing Emissions
CSA
=
SUSTAINABLE
AGRICULTURE
Yes, but we need to connect Climate
Change with the bottom line of farmers
and food businesses
+ RESILIENCE -
EMISSIONS
What and Where are the Opportunities to Deliver?
How does this relate to the EU and the CAP?
How does the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) support CSA?
Reformed in 2013, the new CAP (2014-2020) includes an estimated €104 billion (or 25% of the
total) in funding for AG and RD that is “related to climate.” – EC COP21 Factsheet
CAP background
» AG is the only sector funded entirely by the EU budget (as opposed to public expenditure in member
countries)
» Accounts for 40% of EU budget (AG + Rural Development)
» CAP 2014-2020 priorities are viable food production, sustainable management of natural resources, and
balanced rural development throughout the EU
» Strong mitigation focus
How is this €104 billion being deployed?
CAP 2014-2020 introduced several instruments to incorporate sustainability into income support
for farmers and rural development programs.
Pillar 1
» Income support for farmers now includes Green Direct Payments (30% of direct payments) for
implementing certain practices; subject to cross compliance:
» Cross-compliance simplified and more targeted environmental cross-compliance to be met in order to
receive full CAP funding
Pillar 2
» Rural development programs must now reserve 30% of the budget for voluntary measures that benefit the
climate and/or environment
Close-up on Green Direct Payments
Payments for three obligatory “greening” practices, with no obligation to produce
New direct payments envelope
Obligatory practices
1. maintaining permanent grassland
2. dedicating 5% of arable land to ecological focus
areas
3.
diversifying crops
* Farmers can instead undertake practices which
are considered equivalent
CSA in action in the EU - The case of Ireland
What is Origin Green?
Launched in 2012, Origin Green is a national labeling program that aims to put every farm and
food manufacturing business in Ireland on the road to sustainable production by 2016.
» Program for farmers and food businesses throughout the entire AG value chain to set, achieve, and report
on sustainability targets
» National level (Bord Bia)
» Voluntary
» Sustainability Charter provides framework for setting targets
» 85% of all exports!
Why is it unique?
Target areas
1. Raw Material Sourcing
2. Manufacturing Processes
3. Social Sustainability
Only national labeling program
with an independent verification
process
(800 farm audits/week!)
How does CSA fit in?
The Sustainability Charter is increasingly incorporating dimensions of CSA, motivating and enabling
farmers and businesses to achieve measurable targets for these dimensions throughout the supply
chain.