Transcript The Role of Risk, Resilience Measures in the Caribbeans

The Challenge of Coping with the Natural Cycle of
(Multiple) Hazards in the Caribbean: Promoting,
Selecting, Adopting and Adapting Risk, Resilience,
and Sustainability Initiatives
.
Risk Reduction Initiatives need to
respond to • Exposure of Wider Caribbean Region to a range of
hazards;
• Increasing Impacts of recent events
• Urgent need
– to further develop coping capacities and mainstream risk
reduction strategies
– Shift from Reactive to Proactive Measures
– Improve the relatively low societal/national ‘Resilience’
– Move towards “Sustainable Development”;
• Many recommendations at key regional and global Fora,
Conferences and Seminars over the past decade
Natural hazards in the Caribbean
From: Munich Re, 2002.
Regional Tectonic Map
NATURAL DISASTER “CALENDAR”
Hurricane ‘Season’
………(?June 1–Nov 30?)
Northers High
Seas /local floods
(Mid Dec–March)
Floods
Floods(+lslides)
Wildfires 1
(Feb-April)
Wildfires 2
(June–Aug)
Drought (can last years .. Associated with el Nino?)
Earthquakes
Jan
Feb
Mar
and
Tsunamis,
Rare Events (no season)
Apr
May
Jul
Jun
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Caribbean Vulnerable to many risks and hazards
(not confined to Hurricanes)
Geophysical: Earthquakes, Tsunamis,
Volcanic Events, etc
Climatic: Hurricanes, Floods, Drought,
Windstorm, Northers etc
Biological: Human, Animal and Plant
Diseases
Technological: Fires, Air / Marine Transport
Accidents, Releases of Toxics and
Biological Agencies
Other: Civil Disorder, Terrorism, Conflict,
War, Displaced persons
SLOW ONSET: Drought, Climate Change
Trends / Emerging Issues
• Climate Instability possibly related to GLOBAL
CLIMATE CHANGE
• “Environmental” Emergencies
– Marine Accidents / Spills ; Atmospheric Pollution;
– Wildfires
• SHOCKS / Consequence Management
– Effects of ‘Offshore’ / Transboundary events
– 9/11 ; Airport Closures; Trade / Energy “Shocks”
– Business CONTINUITY Planning / Processes
• Complex Emergencies / Humanitarian / Human
Displacement / Refugee Events (Haiti / Cuba etc)
• BioSafety ; Human DISEASE SARS / Avian Flu
Meteorological Hazards (with
Climate Change drivers)
• Long Term Cyclic fluctuations continue (past peaks in
30’s / 60’s)
• Scientific Opinion leaning to Peaks + Changes in
Intensity driven by Global Warming
• Worst Case:
–
–
–
–
Extended Season (May – December)
More named Events / Higher intensities
More “Hurricane Days” / Longer lived
Unusual tracks / Wider zones of influence
• More intense Rainfall / Wider and Longer Flood
Episodes
• Multiple / Cumulative Effect of above + Sea Level
Change
• Traditional ‘safe areas’ affected
Geological Hazards
• Significant Threat in Greater Antillees
where some experts have postulated
‘Seismic Gap’
• City / Municipal Heavy Rescue Capacities
(Kingston/ S de Cuba/ PaP/ Cap H/ Santo
Domingo/ San Juan/ etc) not adequate
• Tsunami threat locally significant
• Research / Knowledge creation issues
Volcanic Risks
• Several Possible volcanic ‘hotspots’
known (eg Dominica )
• Volcanic Scenarios needed to address
both island sources and wider impacts
– Effects on Regional Transportation Systems
(esp AIR Traffic)
– Effects on Local and Regional Economies
• Landslide and Local Flooding
Next 15 – 20 Years
• Linkages to Development Targets better
understood and acted upon
– SUSTAINABILITY Links
– National Goals & Priority Setting
– Global / Regional / National / Subnational /
Sectoral Capacity Building
• Disaster Culture Mainstreamed via Private
Sector, Civil Society, Local and National Govt
partnerships
• Resilient Sectors (Tourism etc) and societies
• Planning / Budget and Fiscal Strategies inc
RISK ISSUES
• Effective zoning and physical planning
• Functional Construction / Building Safety
administration
• Scenario based contingency planning from Local
to Regional levels
Coping Processes must …
• Cover credible events, scenarios and futures, their
mitigation and their potential consequence(s)
– Large, medium and small scale
– Natural / Man induced / High / Low Probability
– Effects on Human, Natural, Social and Economic
Capital Assets and systems
• Adequately deal with all facets of RISK
• Cover all phases including return to ‘normalcy’
• Be part of MAINSTREAM / CORE Functions of all
Societal Stakeholders ie The State + Private + Civil
Society in genuine PARTNERSHIPS
• Ensure that Command, Control, and
Communication functions are carried out to
secure
– people, property, EMERGENCY PHASE
– natural resources, physical assets, livelihoods,
revenue streams and sectors PRE and POST
EMERGENCY
• Be based on PROACTIVE systematic
approaches NOT ONLY REACTIVE response
• Cover Mainstreaming MITIGATION /
PREVENTION
SPECIAL CONCERNS
• Significant Major investments (eg Hotel Plant / Energy / Utilities
/ Health Facilities / Infrastructure) preferentially located in
HAZARD PRONE ZONES
–
–
–
–
on Coast (Exposed to Coastal Inundation fr Hurricanes, Tsunamis)
In Flood Prone Areas (Insular and mainland states)
On Reclaimed soils prone to LIQUEFACTION and
Landsliding
• Inappropriate Removal / Damage to Natural Protective Systems
eg Reefs, Wetlands, Watersheds has been a continuing feature
of Caribbean Development (ie Slash & Burn NOT confined to
Informal / Rural)
• Under investment / Poorly developed “Culture of Maintenance”
related to Drainage & Sea Defence Works / Infrastructure / Built
Environment / Housing Stock (incl Emergency Shelters)
• Significant concentrations of Risk in Capitals
• High proportion of Populations in Informal Settlements
WW2BW/IWCAM:
Integrated Watershed and Coastal Area Management –
Ecosystem Based Management Initiatives
BioDiversity +
Watershed /
Water Supply
Management
Urban
Development
Harbor
Management
Fisheries /
Aquaculture
Programs
Coastal:
Infrastructure
/Tourism
Development
Industrial
Development
Habitat
Conservation
Programs
Forestry
Activities
Agricultural
Development
+
MPAs
Courtesy:
UNEP-GPA
Concerns Cont.,
• ‘New’ Sectors (Financial/Tourism) often not
integrated into National Response / Recovery
systems
• Lessons from recent disasters (eg IVAN in
Cayman / Tsunami / recent Quakes) learnt
slowly or not at all
• Business continuity planning not uniformly
institutionalised (eg via CSME)
• REACTIVE rather than PROACTIVE
• SCENARIOS not consistent (within / across
the society and critical entities)
Components of Risk (Davis)
Risk of Disaster
Human Vulnerability
Exposure
Frequency
Natural Hazards
Resistance
Resilience
Magnitude Duration
Location
relative
to Hazard
Environmental
Surroundings
Livelihood Health
Adjustments Risk Reduction Actions
After Mark Pelling 2003 ‘The Vulnerability of Cities’ Page 48
Preparation
The Safety Chain
Effective coping systems
Risk Sensitisation / Early Warning / Vulnerability Awareness /
Capacity Building systems involves chains of actors / processes
 Narrow “technical” conceptions of such systems leave weak
links in the chain – where failures occur (eg Warning System
failures in Haiti/Grenada?2004, S AsiaTsunami 2004, TONGA 2006)
 “Mainstreamed” = ‘infused’ into education and culture as well as
the business and livelihood related societal value systems.

Shared Societal
Knowledge of the
risks faced by
Communities =
Risk ‘Culture’
‘Technical’
awareness =,
zoning, safer
built env; &
monitoring +
Alert / Warn’g
Services
Wide Formal and
Informal Diffusion/
Dissemination of
Useable risk info
products
Knowledge
and capacity
for timely
action (pre,
during, post)
threat at
appropriate
levels
Coastal Inundation
NEEDS
• Improved Business Continuity Planning
• WORST CASE SCENARIOS
– High Impact Rapid Onset
– Evacuation vs ‘Hardening’
– PLAN COMPREHESIVELY CONSIDER WORKERS,
RESIDENTS
– Integrated with NATIONAL / REGIONAL
• EFFICENT SHARING OF LESSONS LEARNT
– TSUNAMI / IVAN
– CAYMAN “CARS’ to CARIBBEAN
– Details on Vital Records / Flooding /
– Communication Issues
• RISK REDUCTION NEEDS TO BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY BY ALL
SECTORS INCLUDING TOURISM
Continuity of Business:
Tourism/Financial Services Sectors
• Tourism and Financial Services Sectors are NEW critical
elements of the economy.
• Their hurricane experience is varied and apparently their
special vulnerabilities, needs and sensitivities have not as yet
been comprehensively integrated into all National Disaster
Planning Processes
• Tourism Sector concerns include the exposure of plant, the
special evacuation/welfare needs (of the Guests + workers),
marketplace communication and recovery plans.
• Financial Service Sector concerns include continuity of utility
and communication services, business interruption, and
welfare of staff (+ families)
• Traditional HURRICANE COMMITTEES may not be fully aware
of all the needs / concerns of private sector elements as they
are largely public sector / safety focussed.
• The impact of interruptions of these sectors on REVENUES /
JOBS s have significance for the entire country!!
Lesson
• New / Emerging Economically important
sectors need to be engaged in both the
Prevention and the Contingency Planning
processes.
• The lessons from these sectors in Cayman /
Bahamas / elsewhere in the Caribbean need
to be compiled into a Best Practice Guide as
soon as is possible.
• The implication for Jobs and the State
Revenue impacts of Natural Disasters need
to be analysed and responded to by
Stakeholders in a more systematic way
across the Region
Summary and Conclusions
• Historical Hazard Information, sound science, data
derived from demographic, economic and environmental
sources, Vulnerability analysis and exposure related
factors can be used to assess risks, prognosticate on
impacts, provide foresighting scenarios and measure
various types of likely, possible, probable outcomes.
• The identification of risk factors, the relationships /
correspondence between projections based on assessed
risks and historical disaster patterns, makes these risks
foreseeable and the worst cases avoidable??
• This creating an opportunity for action to build
RESILIENCE in communities / enterprises / sectors and
to reduce risks and losses through pre-emptive action
rather than perpetuating [the current] repetitive cycle of
disaster event, relief and recovery, followed by other
disaster impacts.
• In high risk areas, where disasters are most frequent and
losses highest, failure to reduce risks allows disaster
losses to continually drain off hopes of economic
development.
“Capacity Development”
Enabling Strategies
Supportive Policy,
Legal & Institutional
Frameworks
National/Societal
Organization
Programmes &
Projects to
Improve Systems
Structures,
Mechanisms &
Procedures
Educate, Increase
Capacity to access,
create, use skills, &
KNOWLEDGE
Individual/Local
Time
UWI Based Initiatives
• SIDS University Consortium
– Mandated in Mauritius Strategy
– Under active development
• UWI Institute for Sustainable
Development (ISD) - a regional ‘portal’
for a range of SD issues
• Resilience and Risk Reduction
• Sustainable Tourism
• Foresighting