Transcript Climate Change Impacts in the Amazon

The State of Climate Science
Scary Movie 2006
NASA 2006
The
Solar
radiation
passes
through
the clear
atmosphere
Greenhouse Effect
Some solar radiation
is reflected by the
Earth and the
atmosphere
Some of the infrared radiation
passes through the atmosphere,
and some is absorbed and
re-emitted in all
directions by
greenhouse gas
molecules. The
effect of this
is to warm
the Earth’s
surface and
the lower
atmosphere.
Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
Concentrations
We can stabilize emissions now!
381
Global Temperature
Trends
1.4 – 5.8°C
increase
0.8°C
increase
381
Climate Change Impacts
Coral Reefs are Particularly Sensitive
to Warm Sea Surface Temperatures
» 1998
El Niño year saw massive
bleaching around the world,
> 2005 (not an El Niño) year…
but the hottest year on record
(c) WWF-Canon / Jürgen FREUND
Mountain
Glacial Melt
100’s of millions people will be
affected
(c) WWF Canon V.V.Sunder
(c) WWF-Ca(c) WWF-Canon / NEYRET & BENASTAR
Percent change in global crop yield
with CO2 effects
without CO2 effects
Parry et al 2004
Plant
Species
Moving
Up
&
Polewards
Photo: M Case
» Some plant species including trees, have already starting moving
upslope (1-4m per decade) while some high-elevation, restricted
species have been lost2
» Some have no where to go…Fynbos (Cape Floral Kingdom): 7,300
plant spp.
2Grabherr
et al. 1994. Nature 369:448
Boreal Forests are
Expanding Northward
• New species composition
• Increase in fire frequency and intensity
• Increase in insect outbreak
© WWF-Canon / Anthony B. RATH
Spread of pests and diseases
Current range
Future range
Warming Rivers Threaten
Cold-adapted Species
» Mortality can be over
50% in salmon runs
through Jasper National
Park, with highest losses
during years with warm
river temperatures4
4 Tyedmers and Ward. 2001. Pishereices Centre Research
Reports 9(7)
Species Distribution Changes
» Implications for
genetic, species, &
population diversity
Current threat
(bycatch, deforestation)
Biodiversity
Current threat +
climate change
Time
Climate Change-Induced Drought Increases Fire
» Prolonged
droughts have
lead to wild fires
in Australia,
United States,
Portugal, the
Amazon, etc.
Atlantic Hurricane Season 2005
FIVE Records Broken :
• Most Named Storms:
26 named storms
• Most Hurricanes:
14 hurricanes
• Most Category Five Storms:
5 Category Five storms storms
(with winds over 249 kph (155 mph)
• Most Storms Hitting the United
States:
4 storms made landfall
• Most Expensive Hurricane
Damage:
Hurricane Katrina is
estimated at “over US$100
Billion total losses”
* Hurricane intensity has increased due to
climate change1
NASA: Hurricane Katrina
1 Emanuel, K. 2005. Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature 436: 686-688.
Arctic Sea Ice Decline
National Snow and Ice Data Center
September 28, 2005
• Less ice for marine species
(seals, fish, polar bears)
• More open water
• Complete loss of summer sea ice by 2100
1973
2003
Extent of ice melt in Greenland, 1992 and 2002
Arctic Climate Impact Assessment 2004
Sea-Level Rise
• 1 – 2 mm/year; 90 – 880 mm by 2100
• New York, Bangledesh, Hong Kong, Sydney, Egypt, WWF-US
Thermohaline Circulation Slowdown
Bryden et al. 2005 Slowing of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 25° N. Nature 438: 655-657
Carbon Footprint
• Total CO2 Emissions:
• Price per ton:
• Total Offset Cost:
– Includes: Flights, taxis, hotel
• Total miles flown:
198.1 metric tonnes CO2
$16.6 (US)
$3288.59 (US)
>1,000,000 km
• How did we offset?
– Support renewable energy initiative using the Clean Development
Mechanism under the Kyoto Protocol and the WWF-supported
Gold Standard.
• MyClimate™
www.myclimate.co.uk
• Carbon calculator:
www.safeclimate.net/calculator/
We have the tools
We can
We must