Transcript Four Futures for the Arctic The Food, Water, Energy Nexus

Four Futures for the Arctic
Unpacking the Food, Water, Energy Nexus
Philip A. Loring, University of Saskatchewan School of Environment and Sustainability
What exactly is the “nexus”?
Connections, Interdependencies, Trade-offs
Loring OECD 2015 – Four Futures for the Arctic
Energy
Trade-offs
Vulnerabilities
Resilience
Health
Sustainability
Water
Food
Loring OECD 2015 – Four Futures for the Arctic
An Example
Loring OECD 2015 – Four Futures for the Arctic
Another
Example
Loring OECD 2015 – Four Futures for the Arctic
Energy
Climate
Trade-offs
Vulnerabilities
Resilience
Health
Security
Food
Water
Loring OECD 2015 – Four Futures for the Arctic
Climate Change:
Threat or Opportunity?
The very existence of the Alaska Native way of life may
be threatened if climate change results in rising ocean
levels, melting permafrost, increased coastal erosion …
the ultimate solution is to tackle climate change at its
source
2013 (from her website)
We in Alaska recognize we are an arctic nation [with]
enormous resource potential … if you are moving grain
or [liquefied natural gas] or canned tomatoes, the
reality is you save money if you can save fuel … and
that is what an opening Arctic provides us.
2013 (Quoted in the June 14 Arctic Sounder)
US Senator Lisa Murkowski
Loring OECD 2015 – Four Futures for the Arctic
Two Narratives
Vulnerability & Adaptation
A Frontier
Loring OECD 2015 – Four Futures for the Arctic
Hasty Development, Manufactured Vulnerability
Hasty Development, Manufactured Vulnerability
“Arctic Race”
No-holds barred, goldrush mentality
“Polar Lows”
Murky, underdeveloped
future
From AMSA 2009
“Arctic Saga”
High demand and stable
governance lead to
moderate development
with arctic cultures &
ecosystems preserved
Governance
Demand for
Unstable,
ad-hoc
Resources
Four Futures in the Arctic
Stable,
consistent
“Polar Preserve”
Low demand and stable
governance lead to
extensive preservation
of Arctic
Loring and Gerlach - Next Steps for Food Security in the North
“Arctic Race”
No-holds barred, goldrush mentality
“Polar Lows”
Murky, underdeveloped
future
From AMSA 2009
“Arctic Saga”
High demand and stable
governance lead to
moderate development
with arctic cultures &
ecosystems preserved
Governance
Demand for
Unstable,
ad-hoc
Resources
Four Futures in the Arctic
Stable,
consistent
“Polar Preserve”
Low demand and stable
governance lead to
extensive preservation
of Arctic
Loring and Gerlach - Next Steps for Food Security in the North
Are we acquiescing
to Climate Change?
Do things fail now more? Sure. Do I
have to try new things to fix them?
Yeah. But it’s not because of climate
change. Climate change is just
making things worse. It’s like that
TV show MacGyver, you know? Yeah
that’s me.
…
Are we adapting? I don’t know
about that, but I do know that we’re
pretty adaptable.
A Rights-based Approach to Development in
the North?
• Sustainable Development
requires understanding of the
linkages, trade offs
• “Balanced Development”
w/ Indigenous Governance
• Recognize basic human right
to food, water, energy
security
Loring and Gerlach - Next Steps for Food Security in the North
Thank you
Questions, thoughts?
SFN Project Team:
Award # 1263853
NIFA HEC Project Team:
Award # 2013-70003-2092
Philip A. Loring (PI), University of Saskatchewan &
University of Alaska Fairbanks
Craig Gerlach, University of Calgary
William Schnabel, UAF
Samuel Norlin, UAF
Harry Penn, UAF
Yasmeen Hossain, UAF
Sarah Betcher, UAF
Megan Hinzman, UAF
Andy Mahoney, UAF
Rebecca Rolph, UAF
Larry Hinzman, UAF
John Walsh, UAF
Larry Hamilton, University of New Hampshire
Richard Lammers, University of New Hampshire
Shari Gearheard, University of Colorado Boulder
Henry Huntington, Huntington Consulting
Thomas Johnson (PI), University of
Missouri
Judith Stallman, Univerity of Missouri
Neus Raines, University of Missouri
Bruce Weber, Oregon State
Bruce Steel, Oregon State
Phil Loring, University of Alaska
Larry Duffy, University of Alaska
Ntam Baharanyi , Tuskegee University
Thierno Thiam, Tuskegee University
http://www.sustainablefuturesnorth.org