Transcript Overview Presentation

Power to Prepare Tucson
In Collaboration With:
Climate Variability and Change:
Projections for the Southwest, the
Colorado River Basin, and Tucson
Power to Prepare Tucson
March 31, 2012 – Tucson, AZ
Gregg Garfin, The University of Arizona
http://southwestclimatechange.org/
31 March 2012 – Power to Prepare – Tucson, AZ
What is Climate Change?
“When cars, power companies, and other
industries burn oil, coal, and gasoline, they
release carbon dioxide and other gases into
the atmosphere. These gases accumulate in
the atmosphere, creating a heat-trapping
blanket, and causing the earth to warm. This
makes the world hotter and disrupts weather
patterns and the environment in several
different ways. This effect is called climate
change.”
31 March 2012 – Power to Prepare – Tucson, AZ
http://nca2009.globalchange.gov/global-temperature-and-carbon-dioxide
Image Reference: NOAA/NCDC
Shishmaref, Alaska
Photo: Laura Dynan (Fotolia.com)
Trend Since 1895
R. Seager (presented at WGA Drought
Workshop, September, 2010)
http://www.westgov.org for PDF
31 March 2012 – Power to Prepare – Tucson, AZ
Trend Since 1895
R. Seager (presented at WGA Drought
Workshop, September, 2010) Check
http://www.westgov.org for PDF
31 March 2012 – Power to Prepare – Tucson, AZ
Reclamation – SECURE WATER Act Report, 2011
Where your water security comes from
31 March 2012 – Power to Prepare – Tucson, AZ
Fire
Erosion
Mortality
Photo: Chris Magirl, USGS
31 March 2012 – Power to Prepare – Tucson, AZ
Photo: Laura Dynan (Fotolia.com)
Annual Precipitation Annual Temperature
Upper Colorado River Basin
Reclamation – Westwide Climate Risk Assessments, 2011
Where your water security comes from
31 March 2012 – Power to Prepare – Tucson, AZ
April 1 Snow Water
Annual Runoff
Upper Colorado River Basin
Reclamation – Westwide Climate Risk Assessments, 2011
Percentage Change
Colorado River at Lees Ferry
Less Streamflow
Annual
Winter
Spring-Summer
Reclamation – SECURE WATER Act Report, 2011
Colorado River at Lees Ferry
Percentage Change
Early Snowmelt
Annual
Winter
Spring-Summer
Reclamation – SECURE WATER Act Report, 2011
Colorado River at Lees Ferry
Percentage Change
Less Water
When We Need It
Annual
Winter
Spring-Summer
Reclamation – SECURE WATER Act Report, 2011
G. Garfin based on work performed by J. Weiss, University of Arizona (Geosciences)
Tucson
69°F
Phoenix 75°F
76°F Yuma
Average Annual Temperature
1981-2010
Data: NCDC
34
more
days
per
year
Preliminary analysis by
Carlos Carrillo
and Gregg Garfin,
Univ. of Arizona
Not peer-reviewed
110
25
more
days
per
year
http://southwestclimatechange.org/
31 March 2012 – Power to Prepare – Tucson, AZ
CONSIDER
THIS
8 June 2010 – MTNCLIM 2010 – HJ Andrews Experimental Forest, Blue River, OR
The CRISIS
REVIEW
Brownouts
High energy costs
severe floods
Longer heat
waves
fires
early snowmelt
shortages
rampant
growth
drought
Species
extinctions
dwindling supplies
31 March 2012 – Power to Prepare – Tucson, AZ
The CRISIS
REVIEW
POWER 2 PREPARE
GAZETTE
Brownouts
High energy costs
more floods
Heat wave
death ray 
fires
early snowmelt
shortages
infrastructure investment
advanced building
materials
anticipatory management
Species
extinctions
dwindling supplies
31 March 2012 – Power to Prepare – Tucson, AZ
operations
changes
water banking
drought planning
Water
conservation
rampant
growth
drought
alternative energy
instream flows
habitat refugia
Reduce emissions
http://www.swcarr.arizona.edu/
31 March 2012 – Power to Prepare – Tucson, AZ
Power to Prepare
Gregg Garfin
Institute of the Environment &
School of Natural Resources
The University of Arizona
[email protected]
520-626-4372
www.environment.arizona.edu
31 March 2012 – Power to Prepare – Tucson, AZ