Transcript Diapositiva 1

Opportunities and limits
to manage SOC for improving food production
under climate change
Ana Iglesias
UPM, Spain
OECD Joint Conference: Agriculture and agricultural soils
facing climate change and food security challenges: public
policies and practices. Sept 16, 2015, Paris
1
Thank you!
HORIZON 2020
2
solar
radiation
food
production
temperature
precipitation
limits
soils
management
A view of the problem from the academic side
3
4
Source: Falloon and Betts
(2010)
(A, B) Changes in soil carbon
content (A, kg C m−2) (B, %).
from the RothC soil carbon
model driven by HadCM3LC
coupled climate carbon cycle
model projections (Jones et al.,
2005)
(C) resulting changes in
available water holding
capacity (AWC—cm3 water
per cm3 soil), Changes in AWC
calculated according to
Huntington (2006)
by 2100 relative to 2000
5
transpiration
irrigation
rainfall
runoff
evaporation
top soil
rizosphere
deep soil
6
Screening options
for SOC increase:
Real Learning
Studies
7
8
9
1,400
1,200
1,000
Mini till-barley (rainfed)
600
Abatement
potential(MtCO e)
Abatement potential (MtCO e) 2
2
-1,000
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
-200
100
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
200
Cover crops-almond
800
400
0
-400
-600
-800
-1,200
Cost - effectiveness
2e/ha)
Cost effectiveness (€/tCO(€/tCO
2e/ha)
Marginal
abatement cost
curve (MACC)
Res man-wheat(irr)
Manure-maize(irr)
Min till-barley(irr)
Min till-barley(rain)
Manure-barley(irr)
Cover-maize&vetch(irr)
Rotation-wheat(rain)
Rotation-barley(rain)
Manure-barley(rain)
Opt fert-barley(rain)
Opt fert-wheat(irr)
Opt fert-wheat(rain)
Res man-barley(rain)
Res man-wheat(rain)
Cover-almond
Cover-olives
Cover-vineyard
Res man-barley(irr) 10
Benefit of
mitigation
Global-only
measures
Smart
measures
Loss of
adaptation
Incoherent
measures
Benefit of
adaptation
Loss of
mitigation
Local-only
measures
(self-benefit)
11
atmosphere
management
soil
crop
A view of the problem from the academic side
Simulated maize yield response to planting date at two
sites for two varieties for over 25 seasons
MWIMBA MH-16
7
6
YIELD (T/HA)
5
4
3
2
1
0
SEP 29
OCT 29
NOV 28
DEC 28
JAN 27
PLANTING DATE
90th percentile
50th percentile
10th percentile
13
opportunities
motivation
institutions
policy
people
barriers
limits
behaviour
Potentially relevant variables (modified after Massey et al, 2014)
Drivers
Internal
External
Extreme weather events
Efforts by institutional org.
Incr. public awareness
Efforts by the EU
Recognising benefits of policy Financial support from
institutional funds
Barriers
Domestic political pressure
Pressure form NGOs
Scientific research
Progress in other countries
(technology)
Lack of political awareness
Neighbouring countries not
adopting
Lack of institutional capacity
Lack of institutional rewards
Lack of financial resources
Lack of guidance by the EU
Lack of time and human
resources
Communication and language
15
 Assumption: Climate policy that is effective
has to be politically acceptable (does that
mean supported by citizens?; is that linked
to knowledge?)
– Rhodes, Axsen, Jaccard (2014)
– Stoutenborough, Vedlitz (2014)
16
potential barriers to implement SOC measures
low
medium
high or very high
17
[email protected]
18