Transcript Road to Durban

Kyoto and Beyond
Road to Durban
The 5th installment in an ongoing series on multilateral
agreements related to climate change
www.isciences.com
November 7th, 2011
Introduction
Kyoto and Beyond is a series of presentations on the evolving
international climate treaty process that began with the United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
Road to Durban is a summary of the events and
negotiations that have transpired since COP16
(Nov. 29-Dec. 10, 2010) and preparatory to
COP17 (Nov. 28-Dec.9, 2011).
Other presentations in the series include*:
 Kyoto and beyond: the Evolution of Multilateral
Agreements on Climate Change (2008)
 Report on Copenhagen COP15 (2009)
 Road to Cancun COP16 (2010)
 Report on Cancun COP16 (2011)
* Available at http://www.isciences.com/spotlight/kyoto_and_beyond.html
Contents
A Brief Review of COP16
Significant Events between COP16 and COP17
COP17 Preparations and Positions
The Growth Cap, Emissions, and Emerging Science
Moving Forward in an Uncertain Future
NOTE: Throughout this presentation clickable hyperlinks that provide additional
information will be underlined and written in green.
A Brief Review of COP16
COP16 (Conference of the Parties) was held from
Nov. 29 to Dec. 10, 2010 in Cancun, Mexico.
“ Cancun was a big step... Governments renewed their trust in each other, but to
succeed fully they need to press boldly ahead with what they have agreed. “
Christina Figueres, UNFCCC Executive Secretary
Image Credit: UNFCCC Website
 COP16 was deemed a relative success, restoring global belief in
the process of climate change legislation.
 The meeting resulted in the Cancun Agreements,
tangible steps towards reducing the effects of climate
change through 5 drafted mechanisms.
 The meeting failed to resolve the future of the
Kyoto Protocol, which ends in 2012.
A Brief Review of COP16
The 5 Mechanisms of the Cancun Agreements
1. The Green Climate Fund
2. Reducing Emissions from Deforestation
and Degradation (REDD+)
3. Monitoring, Reporting and Verifying
(MRV)
4. Incorporation of the Copenhagen
Accord
5. Adaptation Framework
For more information click on an item in the list
Significant Events Between COP16 & COP17
June 6 - 17
UN Climate Change
Conference in Bonn
January 27-28
South African Civil
Society Meeting
August 26 – 27
Eighth BASIC
Ministerial Meeting
on Climate Change
January
| February
| March
| April
| May
| June
| July
| August
Oct 1 - 7
UN Climate Change
Conference in
Panama
| September | October
| November | December
Aug 22
Maite NkoanaMashabane meets
business leaders
April 3 – 11
UN Bangkok
Climate Change
Conference
Sept 26 – 27
Pre–COP17 Summit
Event Key
Official UNFCCC Meetings
Other Significant Meetings
and Events
Aug 29
Maite NkoanaMashabane meets
Organized Labour
For more information click
on an event box
Essential Points of Understanding
COP17 Nov. 28 – Dec. 9, 2011, Durban, South Africa
 This is the last conference before the 1st commitment period of the
Kyoto Protocol ends (Dec. 31, 2012) and there is no binding
instrument post-2012 to address climate change.
 The differing viewpoints between developed and developing countries
continue to block significant progress.
 Climate is changing, impacts of climate change are now emerging,
and will intensify over the coming decades.
 Increasingly, scientists suggest that the window of
opportunity to avoid long-term consequences is
closing as global temperatures rise.
“ We go to Durban with no illusions that it will be a walk in the park“
Jacob Zuma, President of South Africa
Provisional Agenda*
COP 17 Key Agenda Items
 Discuss progress and implementation of the mechanisms created at
COP16, as well as how these mechanisms will be funded.
 Discuss and review country commitments to matters such as global
financing, emissions reductions, and development and transfer of green
technology.
 Discuss the financial and technological needs of
Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and methods for
adapting to current effects of climate change.
 Discuss methods for equitable access to sustainable
development for both Developed and Developing
countries.
* The agenda will be finalized in Durban. Provisional agenda can be found here.
South Africa’s Contextual Role
As host country, South Africa will bring the most vulnerable
nations into the center of the climate change discussion.
 South Africa is an influential and credible voice of developing
nations, particularly as a member of the BASIC countries.
 Many hope South Africa will facilitate understanding and
cooperation between developed and developing nations. Global
confidence in South Africa’s ability to lead negotiations is high.
 South Africa, a top 20 GHG emitter, has
committed to reducing emissions 34% by 2020
and 42% by 2025. However, some economists
say this would require significant restructuring of
the country’s industries.
Click map image for more information on
South Africa’s preparations
Image Credit: south-africa.purzuit.com/
South Africa’s Leadership Role
Jacob Zuma, South Africa’s President, believes
COP17 will highlight the impacts climate change has
had on Africa.
“It is a timely conference for our country. Disaster events have become an
increasing burden.” President Zuma
image credit: Wikimedia
Commons
Zuma cautions leaders not to be “overly theoretical when countries face
life and death situations as a result of climate change,” and he seeks an
outcome that is balanced and fair with support for legislative action.
Zuma’s COP17 objectives:
 Determine the future of the Kyoto Protocol,
 Make adaptation central to climate change legislation,
 Implement COP16 decisions.
South Africa’s Leadership Role
Maite Nkoana-Mashabane, COP17 President
Designate, faces pressure to facilitate
cooperation between developed and developing
nations.
image provided by Wikimedia Commons
Nkoana-Mashabane, South Africa’s Minister of International Relations and
Cooperation, hopes to prove that developing nations have a credible voice
in climate change discussions.
Nkoana-Mashabane must:
 Avoid the deadlock and inactivity present at COP15,
 Build upon the progress made at COP16.
Click here for information on Nkoana-Mashabane’s main concerns for COP17
Points of View: Developed vs. Developing Countries
On Primary Concerns for COP17
Developed Countries
Developing Countries
•
•
Least Developed Countries fear that emerging
developing nations, such as China and India,
will align with developed countries at COP17.
•
South Africa takes COP17 very seriously and
believes the conference will be a step forward
for international climate legislation, rather
than the end of a comprehensive agreement.
•
Developing nations are anxious to discuss
techniques for balancing further development
and switching to alternative energy sources.
•
Filipe Calderon, the President of Mexico
(COP16 host), stated that the challenge will be
greater for Durban than Cancun.
•
Financing for adaptation remains a priority for
developing nations.
•
•
•
The European Union hopes that COP17 will
establish a new market-based mechanism for
developing countries. The EU’s inclusion of
aviation emissions in its trading scheme will
add another contentious issue to the
conference.
Sweden strives to prioritize discussions focused
on achieving the limit of a 2 degree Celsius
temperature rise and on transparent emissions
reporting.
The US is leery of negotiating conditions and
believes focus should be on finding an
agreement that binds all of the major
economies.
Japan and Canada feel that they have no room
to deal with climate change, and that COP17
should focus on getting stronger developing
countries to reduce emissions.
Points of View: Developed vs. Developing Countries
On a Second Commitment Period for the Kyoto Protocol
Developed Countries
Developing Countries
•
Major developed nations including Canada,
Russia, and Japan, are opposed to signing a
2nd commitment period for the Kyoto Protocol.
•
The G77 (a group of 77 developing countries
established in 1964; now contains130
developing countries) are pushing for a 2nd
commitment period. This includes China.
•
Norway and Australia are seeking an entirely
new treaty to be implemented by 2015 that will
hold all countries accountable.
•
India supports the 2nd commitment period. It
will not, however, sign to additional legally
binding framework.
The European Union is willing to sign a 2nd
commitment period, but the EU nations produce
only 11% of global emissions.
•
Argentina has voiced that the primary
objective of COP17 should be to agree to a 2nd
commitment period.
New Zealand will only sign a 2nd commitment
period if all major emitters are included, both
developed and developing.
•
The Democratic Republic of the Congo,
speaking on behalf of the African
representatives in Panama, stated that a 2nd
commitment period is essential.
•
Gambia, Grenada, Bolivia, Brazil, and
Venezuela all voiced support in Panama.
•
•
Addressing the Growth Cap
Attempts to limit global temperature rise to 2 C may no longer
be an option.
 To constrain the increase to 2C, GHG emissions should not exceed
450ppm (parts per million) of CO2 equivalent.
 According to the EIA*, the projected
emissions pathway is 650ppm,
which could cause a global
temperature rise of around 4C with
severe consequences.
 Avoiding catastrophic consequences
of a 4C rise is not achievable with
current emissions reductions pledges,
and will require a change in policy.
* US Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration
Image Credit:
http://www.grida.no/publications/vg/climate/page/3076.aspx
Addressing the Growth Cap
Limiting global temperature rise to 2 C will require
transformative changes*.
 Reducing the use of fossil fuels, and increasing energy
conservation and efficiency will not be enough.
 Oil, natural gas, and coal demand must peak before 2020.
 Green tech spending must increase to $18 trillion per year
between 2010 and 2035 – $13.5 trillion more than currently
planned.
 The amount of CO2 emitted per dollar of GDP must be reduced
in 2008-2020 two times faster than in 1990-2008, and four times
faster in 2020-2035.
The technology to make these changes exists, but a
transformation of this scope has never occurred.
*IEA World Energy Outlook 2010 Factsheet; Online at: http://www.iea.org/weo/docs/weo2010/factsheets.pdf
Current State of Global Emissions
Emissions measurements for 2009 were the highest in history.*
Parts Per Million (PPM) – measurement of atmospheric C02 levels
Gigatonne – one billion tonnes, the typical measurement for C02 emissions data
1 PPM = 2.13 Gigatonnes**
2009 Recorded Emissions
2008-2035 Projected
Emissions
2008-2035 Emissions Needed
to Limit Global Temp. Rise to
2 Degrees Celsius
Gigatonnes
PPM
30.6
14.4
1,384.5
650
958.5
450
A chief economist at the IEA has stated that record
emissions hinder hopes of limiting global temperature
rise to less than 2 C.***
* IEA World Energy Outlook 2010 Factsheet; Online at: http://www.iea.org/weo/docs/weo2010/factsheets.pdf
** Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center
*** http://www.iea.org/index_info.asp?id=1959
Current State of Global Emissions
Emissions are increasing from the developing world, and
projected emissions from the power sector are locked in.
 About 75% of the 2009 emissions increase came from developing
countries compared to 60% in 2008.
 80% of 2020 projected emissions
from the power sector are already
locked in – amounts are significant
and will come from existing power
plants and plants currently under
construction.
Image Credit: Wikimedia Commons
“The figures are a stark warning to governments to make rapid climate progress.”
Christina Figueres, UNFCCC Executive Secretary.
Current State of Global Emissions
Emissions status of the big emitters: US, China, India*
 The US ranks 1st in per capita emissions among the biggest
economies –18 tons per person.
 China’s emissions have increased 171% since 2000 – its
emissions levels are greater than the US and Canada
combined.
 India ranks 3rd and Russia ranks 4th in the list of largest CO2
emitters.
Click here to download the Excel file containing the full set of statistics.
Click here to view a graphic of the statistics (Mark McCormick and Paul
Scruton , The Guardian).
* Global C02 emissions statistics for 2009, U.S. Energy Information Administration (US EIA). EIA statistics for 2010 have not yet been compiled
for public release.
Current State of Global Financing
It is estimated that each year for the next 20 years $275 billion
is needed for adaptation and mitigation.*

There is uncertainty about which financing mechanisms are most effective
in helping developing countries reduce emissions and implement green
development.

The majority of donor countries received low scores in a funding
transparency scorecard**, suggesting that there is little way of knowing how
much money is contributed to which projects.

Pledges for REDD+ may be too little considering the number of implementing
economies. And, funds are not being distributed in a timely manner, adversely
affecting the political will of rainforest nations who need to alter agricultural
methods.
 The international carbon credits market has suffered a
nearly total collapse, with only $1.5bn of credits traded last
year - the lowest since the market opened in 2005.*
* World Bank
** International Institute for Environment and Development
Emerging Science: The Role of Forests
There is an increase in attention to the role carbon sinks will
play in sequestering GHG emissions.*
 According to a report released in Sciencexpress
by Pan et al., forests play an important role
as global carbon sinks.
Land monitoring policies,
such as REDD+ have
become increasingly
important to preserve
forests
 Studies by Pan et al. have revealed that the
world’s forests are currently sequestering 861
± 66 petagrams** of carbon (PgC).
 Some sinks have increased in size. The boreal
sink in European Russia increased in size by
35% due to factors that include agricultural
abandonment and reduced harvesting.
Image Credit: Wikimedia Commons
 Others, such as some tropical sinks, have decreased due to deforestation
for agriculture and pasture.
* Pan et al. “A Large and Persistent Carbon Sink in the World’s Forests”
** 1 petagram = 1,000,000,000,000,000 grams
Emerging Science: Extreme Weather Now
A recent IPCC draft report* states a 2-in-3 probability that
extreme weather has already worsened due to human-induced
GHG emissions.
 The extremes include long droughts, monsoonal
rains and heavy flooding, and intense heat waves.
 The frequency, duration, and intensity of extremes
will continue to increase over the coming decades.
Image Credit: NASA,
Wikimedia Commons
 IPCC scientists are 99% certain that the world will
experience an increase in extremes of heat and
decrease of cold.
 Heat waves may peak at 5 degrees hotter by midcentury and at 9 degrees hotter by the end of the
century.
* IPCC draft report, The Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate
Change Adaptation (SREX). Final report is expected to be released in mid-November, 2011.
Emerging Science and COP17
How will the emerging scientific knowledge impact
discussions and outcomes in Durban?
 Inability to limit temp rise to 2C. May facilitate cooperation and
decrease deadlock as pressure to act intensifies.
 Current emissions pathway (650ppm, +4C). May
result in more “finger pointing” between nations,
creating disagreement and deadlock similar to
COP15 in Copenhagen
By US Army Africa [CC-BY-2.0
(www.creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)],
via Wikimedia Commons
 Extreme weather now. May intensify discussions on adaptation for the
most vulnerable nations, and developed nations may participate with a
new sense of urgency as their vulnerabilities are also exposed.
 Carbon sinks. May propel more funding for programs such as REDD+
and the Green Climate Fund as the importance of green land-use, such
as carbon sinks grows.
Moving Forward in an Uncertain Future
Upcoming opportunities to advance climate change progress.
Important Meetings Post-COP17
June 2012 - G20 summit, Mexico. May be some
discussion on climate change.
June 2012 - Rio+20 Earth Summit, Rio de Janeiro,
Brazil. Participants to discuss successes and
failures of past 20 years of climate change
legislation and ways to tackle future issues.
Late 2012 - COP18, Qatar or South Korea. NOTE:
It is possible the Kyoto Protocol will have ended
completely, therefore eliminating COP18.
 The Clean Development
Mechanism (CDM) ends with the
1st commitment period of the
Kyoto Protocol (Dec. 31, 2012),
but some hope that CDM can be
kept alive, even without binding
targets.
 The European Union, with its own reduction targets
and credits (ending in 2020), is predicted to be a
driving force for CDM post-2012.
 Other nations, such as Venezuela and Bolivia, have
voiced that CDM should not operate without another
binding commitment period.
Conclusion: Possible Outcomes from COP17
Can COP17 generate effective, timely actions to address
increasingly urgent climate issues?
Image Credit: UNFCCC
Time runs out for the Kyoto Protocol. COP17 sets 5-yr target
for Protocol successor.
Mechanisms of the Protocol and the Cancun
Agreements continue, even without binding targets.
The Rio+20 Earth Summit gains new urgency
as a potential vehicle of change.
Regional coalitions of nations pursue
collective agreements outside of the
UNFCCC process.
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Citation
When referencing this slideshow please use the following citation:
ISCIENCES, L.L.C. The Road to Durban. A slideshow; 5th installment in the
series Kyoto and Beyond. November 7, 2011. Ann Arbor, Michigan.
www.isciences.com.
www.isciences.com
November 7, 2011