Transcript Climate change impacts

Module 1
Basic concepts and understanding the
environment-climate changedevelopment linkages
Country-led environmental and climate
change mainstreaming
Are we transgressing “planetary
boundaries”?
• The Holocene: Earth’s environment has been stable for
the past 10,000 years
• Since the Industrial Revolution, human actions are
leading to significant environmental change
• Are we moving into the Anthropocene?
• Could human actions lead to a rupture in the stability the
planet has enjoyed for the past 10,000 years?
• Two underlying drivers of change:
• Population: 4x increase in last 100 years, reaching 7 billion
• Economic activity: 20x GDP increase in last 100 years
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The Holocene
Source: Rockström et al (2009a).
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Planetary Boundaries
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Source: Rockström et al,(2009b)
• Species becoming extinct 100-1,000x natural rate
• Human processes: conversion of 120 million
tN2/year, more than effects from all natural
processes combined
• About 20 million t P mined/year–8x natural
background rate of influx
• Surface ocean pH has decreased about 0.1 units
since pre-industrial times – 100x than any other
time in the last 20 million years
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National Geographic
• About 25% of river basins run dry before reaching
the oceans due to freshwater use
• Land use change into agricultural land: average
rate of 0.8%/yr over the last 40-50 years
• Human activities have doubled global
concentration of most aerosols
• More than 140,000 chemical products are
commercially available (UNEP, 2013)
• Toxicity data available only for a few thousand,
with virtually no knowledge of combined effects
• CO2 concentration approx. 400 ppm vs 350 upper
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safe limit
Air quality in
Central Asia
Source: Regional
Environmental
Centre for
Central Asia et
al,(2015)
Desertification in
Central Asia
Source: Regional
Environmental
Centre for
Central Asia et
al,(2015)
Water quality in
Central Asia
Source: Regional Environmental Centre for Central
Asia et al (2015)
Water quality in
Central Asia
Source: Regional Environmental Centre for Central
Asia et al (2015)
Is climate change real?
• IPCC 5th Assessment Report:
- “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and
since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are
unprecedented over decades to millennia. The
atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of
snow and ice have diminished, sea level has risen, and
the concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased”.
• Observed trends:
- Recent years warmest on record
- Accelerating increase in global surface temperature and
ocean temperature
- Accelerating sea level rise
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Climate variability and change in
Central Asia
• Avg. annual temperatures  0.10ºC–
0.31ºC/decade
• Global trend: 0.06ºC/decade




frequency of extremely hot days (≥40ºC)
recurrence of low temperatures
aridity (especially around Aral Sea)
variability in precipitation
• Intense rainfall events more frequent and irregular
(especially mountainous areas)
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Source: Thurman (2011)
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Source: Zoï Environment Network (2009)
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Climate change and malaria
Source: Rogers and Randolph (2000)
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Climate change
impacts
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Source: Zoï Environment Network (2009)
Climate Variability vs Climate Change
• Climate variability: shorter-term variations (daily,
seasonal, annual, inter-annual, several years)
• Climate change: long-term trends in climate
averages (decades or longer)
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Environment Canada (2012)
Climate change cannot be attributed to
natural forcings
Source: IPCC (2013) 5th Assessment Report, WG I
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Source: IPCC (2013) 5th Assessment Report, WG I
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Observations: intensity of cyclones
Worldwide: %age of Category 1 cyclone (blue curve), sum of Category 2 and 3 (green curve), sum of
category 4 and 5 (red curve) on 5 years period. Dashed lines are averages for each category from 1970
to 2004 (Source: Petit & Prudent 2008, p. 42, from Webster et al 2005)
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The greenhouse effect
Source: WWF/IPCC,
http://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/aboutcc/how_cc_works/
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Global Warming Potential (GWP) and Global
Temperature change Potential (GTP)
Source: IPCC 2013 5AR WGI
Sources of GHG emissions
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Source: Herzog (2005)– WRI
What are the main consequences?
Biophysical
impacts
Socioeconomic
impacts
Changes in T°
Changes in rainfall
patterns
Shifts in seasons
More frequent or
severe storms, floods,
droughts
Raised sea level
Erosion, desertification
Changes in water
quality/availability
Changes in ecosystems
Biodiversity loss
Disease & pest
outbreaks, ...
Damage to or
destruction of
infrastructure
Reduced food security,
malnutrition
Economic disruption,
loss of livelihoods,
social disruption
Increased mortality
and morbidity
Reduced availability of
hydropower
Conflicts, population
displacement, human
migrations, ...
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Source: IPCC (2013) 5th Assessment Report, WG I
Development – Environment links
Adaptation
Mitigation
Human
activities
Impacts
Opportunities, risks
& constraints
Climate,
environment &
natural resources
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Environment-climate changedevelopment links
Risk: The combination of the probability of an
event and its negative consequences
Climate
Change
Hazard
River floods
Environmental
degradation
Probability
Risk
Consequences
Pest outbreak
Heatwaves
Sea surge
Landslides
Drought
Disaster
Mudflows
Earthquakes
Conflict
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Exposure
Vulnerability
Sensitivity
“the propensity or
predisposition to be
adversely affected”
(IPCC, 2012)
World Preservation Foundation, 2010
Adaptive
Capacity
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Liz Hempel, 2011
The Times of India, 2012
Resilience
• “Resilience is the ability of an individual, a
household, a community, a country or a region to
withstand, adapt and to quickly recover from
stresses and shocks”
• EU Communication on Resilience (2012)
Climate change and environment
• Climate change is a theme to be addressed with other
environmental issues:
• Climate change exacerbates certain environmental trends
and problems
Credit: Proyecto Rio
Hurtado, EuropeAid Photo
Library
• Environmental management has an impact on climate
change
Credit: Vietnamese
journalist, EuropeAid Photo
Library
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Sustainable development and the Green Economy
• Green Economy
An economy that results in improved human well-being
and social equity, while significantly reducing
environmental risks and ecological scarcities” (UNEP, 2011)
• It must contribute to SD
• An an operational level:
“An economy whose growth in income and employment
is driven by investments that:
• Reduce carbon emissions and pollution;
• Enhance energy and resource efficiency;
• Prevent the loss of biodiversity and ecosystem
services”. (EMG Report, 2011)
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Which development pathway are
we following?
Environment
Environment
Economy
Sustainable
development
Social
dimension
Economy
Social
dimension
For example…
AGRICULTURE
…does it impact on the
environment and climate
change?...
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Agriculture
 Contributes 13-15% of global carbon emissions
(rising to 30-32% if we include land use change,
land degradation and deforestation) (EC, 2012)
 Is the main driver behind deforestation
 Contributes to pollution of soil, air and water,
and loss of biodiversity
 Leads to adverse health effects (direct and indirect)
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AGRICULTURE
…is it affected by environmental
degradation and climate change?...
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Agriculture
 Soil erosion and land degradation limit agricultural
productivity in many developing countries
 Freshwater availability and quality affect crop
yields. Climate change is exacerbating these
downward trends
 Drought intensity and frequency are increasing in
various countries due to climate change
 Nearly 1 billion people live in chronic hunger, and
by 2050 there will be a need to produce to 70%
more food globally (EC, 2012)
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What about health?
 In least developed countries, 1/3 of death and
disease is a direct result of environmental causes
(WHO, 2010)
 Environmental factors influence 85 out of the 102
categories of disease and injury listed in The World
Health Report (WHO)
 Climate change that has occurred since the 1970s
has caused over 140,000 excess deaths each year,
and climate change is estimated to add at least
US$2-4 billion in annual health sector costs (WHO,
2012)
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Environmental burden of disease
(DALYs/1000 population)
DALY = disability-adjusted life year: measure of
overall disease burden, expressed as the number of
years lost due to ill-health, disability or early death
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Source: WHO (2006)
…education?
 In 1 out of 3 countries in sub-Saharan Africa with
available data, more than half of the schools have
no toilet and more than 50% of schools don’t have
access to potable water (UNESCO UIS, 2012)
 Malaria causes between 4-10 million days of school
absenteeism per year (Partnership for Child Development
et al, 2009)
 In the year 2000 floods in Cambodia, at least 1,000
schools were destroyed and about 500,000 primary
and secondary school children affected (ADPC, 2008)
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Environment, climate change andSDGs
Positive and negative poverty environment
linkages
Environmental preservation
Win-Lose
Environmental management
that excludes local
communities (e.g. lack of
benefit-sharing, dislocation
of communities)
Win-Win
Sustainable livelihoods (e.g.
sustainable agriculture,
forestry, fisheries, ecosystem
management, adaptation to
climate change)
Lose-Lose
Lack of or inadequate
environmental management
negatively affecting the poor
(e.g. lack of adaptation to
climate change, poor
environmental health
conditions)
Lose-Win
Short-term livelihoods (e.g.
overgrazing, overfishing,
deforestation)
Poverty reduction
Source: UNDP-UNEP (2009), p.8
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Moving to green, climate-resilient and lowemission development
• Environmental and climate-resilient development and lowemission development result from mainstreaming in policymaking
and planning
Environmental
mainstreaming
Climate change
adaptation
mainstreaming
Mainstreaming of
climate change
mitigation
Green development
The three
approaches are
complementary
In all cases,
focus on cobenefits
Climate-resilient
development
Low-emission
development
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Building on Multilateral Environmental
Agreements’ commitments
• MEAs require elaboration of diagnoses and Action
Plans, e.g.
- Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD); Desertification
(UNCDD); wetlands (Ramsar); POPs (Stockholm
Convention); etc.
• These are a good starting point for addressing the
environmental challenge
• They require COORDINATION and
HARMONISATION amongst them and with national
and sectoral policy-making and planning processes
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NAPAs, NAMAs and NAPs
• NAPAs = national adaptation programmes of action
• Help LDCs build national capacities and identify priority
adaptation projects with developmental benefits
• NAMAs = nationally appropriate mitigation actions
• Voluntary mitigation measures
• Process launched June, 2013
• NAP = national adaptation plan
• Helpful to identify medium- and long-term
adaptation needs and
developing/implementing strategies and
programmes to address them
• Process launched June, 2013
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Seizing opportunities
• Green growth
- ‘A way to pursue economic growth and development,
while preventing environmental degradation, biodiversity
loss and unsustainable natural resource use’(OECD, 2010b)
• Green jobs
Source: ILO (2013) 51
Developing synergies: green development
- climate change adaptation & mitigation
• Quite frequently measures aimed at green
development, adaptation and mitigation
reinforce each other
- e.g. reduced tillage agriculture enhances carbon
sequestration in soils while supporting soil moisture
retention - increasing resilience to dry spells – and reducing
soil erosion
- e.g. sustainable reforestation may simultaneously enhance
carbon stocks, enhance the adaptive capacity of local
communities (by offering new livelihood opportunities), act
as protection against soil erosion, enhance water capture,
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and increase biodiversity
• Mitigation should:
• Be compatible with adaptation policies and requirements
• Rely on environmentally sustainable practices
• e.g. unsustainable agrofuels may be a threat to food security,
water availability and ecosystems
• Not result in increased vulnerability to climate change
• Adaptation should:
• Consider emissions and environmental impacts, e.g.
• agricultural intensification addressing food security may
increase GHG emissions from use of fertilisers and increase
water pollution
• increased adoption of air conditioning to adapt to heat waves
may result in increased emissions from fossil energy use
• water capture to address drought periods may affect
biodiversity, and irrigation systems may lead to soil salinisation
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Recap – Key messages
• The Earth has enjoyed a stable environment over the past
10,000 years, which is now being compromised due to
human action (Holocene  Anthropocene)
• Thresholds in key variables are already being exceeded:
- Climate Change
- Loss of biodiversity
- Nitrogen cycle
• Other variable are approaching safe limits, e.g.
- Phosphorous cycle
- Ocean acidification
• For some we still don’t have enough data
- Chemical pollution
- Atmospheric aerosol loading
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Recap – Key messages (2)
• Climate change is real, and is driven to a large
extent by emissions of greenhouse gases linked to
human activities
- Fossil energy use, deforestation and agriculture are the
main culprits
• Climate change is notably characterised by rising
temperatures, rising sea level, and more
frequent/intense extreme weather events
• Changes in climate system parameters generate a
wide range of biophysical and socioeconomic impacts
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Recap – Key messages (3)
• Environment and climate change are
intimately related to development
• development initiatives affect the environment and
contribute to climate change
• state of the environmental and climate change
affect development
• There is a continuum of responses to address
environmental sustainability and climate
change, from addressing drivers of
vulnerability to specifically confronting impacts
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Recap – Key messages (4)
• The path to development should be planned
so as to be green, climate-resilient and lowemission
• Environmental sustainability, adaptation and
mitigation are complementary responses with
potential to generate significant ‘co-benefits’
in terms of development
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Key references
• European Commission (2009) Guidance on the Integration of
Environment and Climate Change in Development
Cooperation. EuropeAid Tools and Methods Series, Guidelines
No 4. Available from:
http://ec.europa.eu/europeaid/infopoint/
• IPCC website: www.ipcc.ch
• IPCC (2007b) Climate Change 2007: Impacts,
Adaptation and Vulnerability. Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, UK & New York, NY, USA. Available from:
www.ipcc.ch
• IPCC (2007c) Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate
Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK & New
York, NY, USA. Available from: www.ipcc.ch
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Key references (2)
• IPCC (2013) WG I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth
Assessment Report Climate Change 2013: The Physical
Science Basis.
• Millennium Ecosystem Assessment website:
www.unep.org/meaweb/en/index.aspx
• UNEP (2012) Global Environment Outlook GEO5,
Environment for the future we want. UNEP.
• UNEP Environmental Data Explorer:
http://geodata.grid.unep.ch/
• Volunteer-driven information website ‘CO2 Now’:
http://co2now.org/
• WWF – Climate change explained:
http://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/aboutcc/how_cc_w
orks/
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References
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ADPC (2008) A study on impact of disasters on the education sector in Cambodia.
Available from:
http://www.adpc.net/v2007/ikm/ONLINE%20DOCUMENTS/downloads/2008/Mar/MDRDEd
ucationCambodiaFinal_Mar08.pdf
Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature Project: http://berkeleyearth.org
Environment Canada (2012) Climate change concepts.
http://www.cccsn.ec.gc.ca/?page=scen-intro Accessed 11/06/2013.
European Commission (2012) Integration of environment, climate change and the green
economy in the agricultural sector. Unpublished draft.
European Commission (2014) Building effective resilience through risk-informed
humanitarian and development programming. Joint ECHO DEVCO workshop, 10
Herzog T. (2005) World Greenhouse Gas Emissions in 2005. Working paper, World
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Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005) Ecosystems and Human Well-being:
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References (1)
References (3)
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Partnership for Child Development; London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine;
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