Transcript Research Challenges for Sustainable Energy

Sustainable Energy
Jim Skea
Research Director
UK Energy Research Centre
North-East Forum on Climate Change Workshop
Northumbria University
8 October 2008
1000 Years of CO2 and
Global Warming
Temperature
(Northern Hemisphere)
CO2 Concentrations
After 45 More Years of current energy use patterns
600
500
400
Today’s CO2 Concentration
300
280
CO2 [ppmv]
260
240
220
200
180
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
Age (yr BP)
200,000
100,000
0
Projected Impacts of Climate Change
Source: Stern Review
Illustrative emissions paths to
stabilise at 550ppm CO2
Source: Meinshausen (2006)
UK carbon policy framework
HISTORIC DATA
CURRENT POLICY
POLICY TO BE DETERMINED
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
The Committee on Climate Change (CCC) will advise
government on how the UK can meet its emissions
reductions goals
By 1 December 2008…
Advise on 15 years
of carbon budgets
…taking into account a
range of factors…
• Scientific
knowledge
2008-2012
• Technology
2013-2017
• Economic
circumstances
2018-2022
• Fiscal
circumstances
Advise on use of
trading & credits
Advise on 2010 target’s
feasibility
Review of the 2050
60% reduction target
…the Committee needs to find
the optimal emissions
reduction pathway to 2050
CO2
60%?
• Social
circumstances
• Energy policy
• International
circumstances
1990
2050
Generic options for reducing CO2
nuclear
efficiency
fossil fuels with carbon
capture and storage
renewables
Energy Efficiency
 vast range of technical approaches…
 buildings (residential and commercial)
 appliances
 cars
 aircraft
 ships
 industrial processes
 in many areas, the challenge is encouraging the
uptake of existing technology, not so much
developing new technologies
 but new technology has promise - especially in
surface transport
 the “rebound effect” – tendency to use growing
income on energy intensive things at the margin
(gadgets, flights)
Nuclear power
 different perceptions in different countries
 operating performance and construction record has
improved in last decade…
…. especially in Far East
 push in several countries to speed up planning and
regulatory approval
 progress on radioactive waste
 a price for carbon helps nuclear
 economics and finance critical
 not just cost but risk – nuclear is a riskier
investment than gas in a liberalised market
Carbon capture and storage
Peterhead
power station,
Scotland
Source: BP
UK carbon capture and
storage competition
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Post-combustion technology (retrofittable)
Full chain: capture, transportation, storage
90% capture on 300-400 MW capacity
Demonstration plant in place by 2014
Commercial deployment by 2020?
Four pre-qualified bidders
 BP Alternative Energy International
 E.ON UK/Arup/EPRI/Fluor/MHI/Penspen/Tullow Oil
 Peel Power/Dong Energ/Senergy Alternative
Energy/Atkins-Boreas/Mott MacDonald
 Scottish Power Generation/Marathon Oil/Aker Clean
Carbon/Aker Solutions
Renewables
Growth of renewable electricity in Europe
Source: International Energy Agency
Potential scenario to reach 15%
renewable energy by 2020 in UK
But new sources of hydrocarbons….
The lifestyle issue….
Emission Reduction Options:
BLUE Map Scenario
Source: International Energy Agency
Marginal Abatement Cost Curve for
CO2 Reduction
Source: International Energy Agency
Recent trends in UK energy R&D spend
Source: International Energy Agency
2005
2004
2003
2002
2008 (planned)
2007 (planned)
2006 (budgeted)
Source: IEA (2000-2005)
2001
2000
$M (2005 prices and exchange rates)
Funding for UK Energy R&D is Rising
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Recent trends in UK renewable energy
R&D
UK Energy RDD&D support
Research Councils Energy Programme
 ~£90m pa
 UKERC
 SUPERGEN (Sustainable Power Generation)
initiative
 Towards a Sustainable Energy Economy (TSEC)
Programme
 Carbon Vision Programme (mainly buildings)
 Fusion Programme
 Research Training and Capacity Building
SUPERGEN
 RENEWABLES
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Marine Energy
Wind energy
Photovoltaic materials
Excitonic solar cells
Biomass, biofuels and energy crops
 HYDROGEN AND FUEL CELLS
 Hydrogen energy
 Fuel cells
 Biofuel cells
 NETWORKS
 Future network technologies
 Highly distributed power systems
 Energy infrastructure
 OTHER
 Energy storage
 Conventional power plant lifetime extension
Towards a Sustainable Energy
Programme
 CROSS-DISCIPLINARY CONSORTIA
 BIOSYS (bio-energy systems)
 Carbon Capture and Storage
 NUCLEAR
 Keeping the nuclear option open (KNOO)
 Sustainable nuclear
 SOCIAL SCIENCE GROUPS
 RESOLVE - Research on lifestyles, values and energy
consumption (Surrey)
 Electricity Policy Research Group (Cambridge)
 Transitions to a sustainable energy economy (SPRU,
Sussex)
NERC Sustainable Use of Natural Resources Theme:
Four challenges
1. Extending the Resource Base - reducing
environmental footprint of fossil fuel and
mineral use and identifying novel fuel sources;
2. Meeting the Renewables Challenge optimising environmental gains from
extraction of energy from renewable sources;
3. Water-Soil Life Support System - integrated
approaches to sustain and improve water and
soil quality;
4. Valuing Environmental Services - innovative
methods to achieve parity for environmental
services alongside economic indicators
NERC Sustainable Use of Natural Resources Theme:
Three priority areas
1. Predicting the environmental
outcomes of natural resource use
for renewable and non-renewables
energy using a systems approach
2. Developing an integrated water-soil
life support system
3. Bringing environmental valuation
into mainstream thinking
What Is UKERC?
The UK Energy Research Centre is the focal point for UK
research on sustainable energy. It takes an independent,
whole-system approach, drawing on
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engineering
economics
physical
environmental
social sciences.
Phase I: 2004-2009
Phase II: 2009-2014
UKERC Structure: Phase 1 20042009
John
Loughhead,
executive
director
Professor Jim
Skea,
research
director
Supervisory
Board
Technology
Policy and
Assessment
Advisory
Board
Demand
Reduction
Energy
Infrastructure
and Supply
Future Sources
Of Energy
Energy Systems
And Modelling
Environmental
Sustainability
Materials for
Advanced Energy
Systems
Research themes
Research Atlas
National Energy
Research Network
Functions
The
Meeting Place
Advisory Board
Graeme Sweeney, CEO,
Shell Renewables
Philip Sellwood, chief
executive
Diane Urge-Vorsatz,
director, PhD programme,
Central European
University
Doug Parr, chief scientist
Duncan Botting, VP
Nick Hartley, senior
advisor
Tom Delay, CEO, Carbon
Trust
Chris Anastasi, senior
environmental advisor
Henry Derwent, director
Mike Hulme, executive
director
Allan Asher, CEO
Richard Bellingham, head
of energy policy
Prof Jane Summerton, Linkoping
University
Anthony White, director
Arnulf Grubler, snr
research scholar, Int’l Inst
for Applied Systems
Analysis
Philip Wolf, chief
executive, Renewable
Energy Assoc
John Scott, technical
director
Peter Waller, head of
energy industries and
technologies
Fiona Harvey, environmental
correspondent
Hanns-Joachim Neef,
Juelich Research Centre
Research
Supervisory
Board
Advisory
Board
Directorate
Research
Committee
Capacity
Building
Research coordination
and integration
Energy
demand
Energy
supply
Energy and
Environment
Energy
systems
TPA
Knowledge
Exchange
Research Challenges for
Sustainable Energy
 de-carbonisation of electricity
 renewables
 carbon capture and storage
 built environment
 existing buildings
 new build
 vehicle efficiency
 spatial planning and transport
 transport sector
 improved efficiency
 biofuels
 new vectors – hybridisation, electric, hydrogen
 changing patterns of transport behaviour
Research Challenges for
this Workshop
1. reducing the carbon footprint of existing housing
2. low-zero carbon new build in the housing and
commercial sectors
3. building sustainability into new development through
spatial planning, transport requirements
4. the role of renewables (solar thermal, heat pumps,
bio-energy, PV) at the household and community level
5. engaging the public in climate change action
6. the respective roles of utilities, local authorities and
housing associations
UK Energy Research Centre
www.ukerc.ac.uk