Transcript Societal Grand Challenges in the 21 st Century: Solutions From

Societal Grand Challenges in the 21st Century:
Solutions From Converging Physical and Life
Sciences and Digital Technologies
Tomás Díaz de la Rubia
9.6 Billion People by
2050
Aging populations, rising
cost of healthcare, global
pandemics, sustainability
60% of Global
Population Middle
Class by 2030
Shift to Megacities, rising
demand for energy, food,
water
25 Gtoe of Energy
Demand by 2050
Finding the right solutions.
Fossil fuel based economy,
increased integration of
renewables, remaining
energy poverty, climate
change
70% Increase in Food
Production by 2030
Increasing need for water,
urbanized population, land
use and production
capability, climate change
1 Trillion
Interconnected
Devices by 2030
Digital and Smart
everything, millions of new
entrepreneurs, global access
to knowledge and education
9 Billion People by
2050
Aging populations, rising cost of
health care, global pandemics
1 Trillion
Interconnected
Devices by 2030
Exponential technology, Millions
of new entrepreneurs, global
access to education, smart
everything
60% of Global
Population will be
Middle Class by 2030
Global Megatrends
by the Numbers
70% Increase in
Food Production by
2050
Increasing need for water,
urbanized population, climate
change
Rising demand for energy, food,
water; shift to megacities
25 Gtoe of Global
Energy Demand by
2050
Fossil fuel based economy, Climate
Change, remaining energy
poverty
Nanotechnology
Graphene, novel battery
and solar cell PV
materials, implantable
drug-delivery capsules
Climate change and
sustainability
Water, plant genetics,
microbiology, ecology,
agriculture, ocean
science
Advanced materials
and Manufacturing
Exascale Computing
High resolution climate
models, materials
genome, drug discovery,
AI algorithms
Light weight alloys, high
strength and ductility
alloys, ceramics and
composites, 3D printing
Genomics and
Synthetic Biology
Bioinformatics, predictive,
preventive, personalized
medicine, synthetic
organisms, new therapies
for cancer
Cray Y-MP circa 1990
iPhone 6 - 2015
•
•
•
•
•
≈ 1 Micron
32 bit
8 processors
2 Gflops
$100M
• 20 nm; 64 bit
• 2 Gflops
• <$1000
iPhone X – 20YY?
Aurora - 2018
• 200 PetaFlops
• $200M
?
Exponential Technology Trends and Digital 4.0
Artificial Intelligence
Big Data and
Predictive Analytics
Internet of Everything
Augmenting the
cognitive power of the
human brain, natural
language
Identifying new
relationships between
data to create
knowledge and predict
and anticipate events
Robotics
Replacing elements of
human labor, drones,
autonomous vehicles
Interconnected sensors
and networks to create
“smart” solutions:
smart cities, smart
power, smart factories,
smart medicine, smart
farming….
Wearable Devices
and Augmented
Reality
real-time diagnostics
and monitoring, Virtual
presence
The deceptive forces of exponential technology
change are driving disruption in many industries
Exponential trends in science and
technology are disrupting businesses
If you’re a F500 company on the S&P500 today, there’s a 40%
chance that you won’t be in the F500 in 10 years
• Kodak engineer
Steve Sasson
invents the digital
camera in 1975
• 0.01 Mega Pixels
• Receives National
Medal of
Technology from
President Obama in
2010
Destroyed by its own invention
The difference between linear and exponential
1996
Market Cap: $28B
140,000 employees
2012
17,000 employees
No Profit since 2007
2012
Purchased by
Facebook for $1B
13 employees
If you do not disrupt yourself, someone else will
Peter Diamandis, Singularity university
The innovations of the future that will help tackle society’s grand
challenges will emerge from the convergence of these science
and technology trends
Convergence naturally leads
to interdisciplinary
approaches
25 Gtoe of Energy
Demand by 2050
Fossil fuel based economy,
remaining energy poverty,
climate change
30 Gt CO2/yr, 400 ppm
a 10 million-year record
Transportation accounts for 25% of primary
energy use in the U.S.
• Powered by fossil fuels today
• Vehicles powered by fossil fuel
today represent a $1T asset
class with 4% utilization
• Significant shifts are underway
in the way in which vehicles are
conceived and utilized
– Uber, Lyft, Zip Car
– Electrification of transportation
– Hydrogen
• New modalities of
transportation will be enabled
by technology
– Drones
– Autonomous vehicles
The convergence of
storage, sensors,
networks, robotics, big
data and analytics
700,000km …
and counting
Robotic electric cars promise to revolutionize the future of
mobility … and disrupt the automotive and energy industries
30%
Geographic
Location
Services
Integrated
Software
Engineering
Laser, Radio,
and Infrared
Sensing
Anticipated fuel
savings predicted
by the University
of California
Number of states
that have already
passed laws for
driverless car
testing
4.2m
4
Accidents would be
prevented if 90% of
vehicles were
autonomous, predicted
by the Eno
Transportation
Foundation
Advances in Energy Storage are critical and require the
convergence of nanotechnology, advanced materials and
exascale computing
Transformational
Transformational
Mg++
Beyond
Lithium-Ion
Strategies
Adjacent
Adjacent
Compressed Air
Core
Core
Zn Air
Pumped
Storage
HydroElectricity
Li Ion
NaS
Liquid Metal
Will cars one day be autonomous, electric
(or hydrogen) and 3D printed at home?
Local Motors 3D printed car with 47
parts – you only buy the tires…
ORNL 3D Printed strong, light weight
carbon fiber composites
The convergence of
Exascale Computing, AI,
Robotics and Big Data
Analytics
Exponential trends in Science, Technology and
Engineering offer tremendous promise
• Convergence of multiple disciplines is required to solve
grand challenge problems – Back to the future?
• The digital era is just starting … Industry 4.0 and smart
everything: farming, medicine, transportation, etc.
• The students of today will be the innovators of the future
– But the future of knowledge looks “distributed”
– …And the cyber and other security threat cannot be ignored…
– …And we will not get there without continuing advances in
fundamental science