Transcript Rebecca Verity - Climate Change

Watershed Management in a
Changing Climate
(1) climate-driven changes to East Bay
watersheds,
(2) climate-forced changes to traditional
conservation approaches, and
(3) adapting watershed management in Contra
Costa County for long-term success.
14
The
of Hottest
the 15 Hottest
Year Ever
Years
Measured…
on Record
Have Occurred Since the Year 2000
2014
2010
2005
2007
2002
1998
2003
2013
2009
2006
2012
2011
2004
2001
Source: NASA/GISS
Hotter than 2014 so far?
2015
Source: NASA/GISS
Summer Temperatures Have Shifted
1951 – 1980
Frequency of Occurrence
Cooler than average
Average
Warmer than average
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
Baseline (1951 - 1980) mean
0
1
Deviation from Mean
Source: Hansen, et al., “Perceptions of Climate Change,” PNAS 10.1073, August 2012
2
3
4
5
Summer Temperatures Have Shifted
Frequency of Occurrence
1981 – 1991
Cooler than average
Baseline (1951 - 1980) mean
Average
Warmer than average
Extremely hot
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
Deviation from Mean
Source: Hansen, et al., “Perceptions of Climate Change,” PNAS 10.1073, August 2012
2
3
4
5
Summer Temperatures Have Shifted
Frequency of Occurrence
1991 – 2001
Cooler than average
Baseline (1951 - 1980) mean
Average
Warmer than average
Extremely hot
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
Deviation from Mean
Source: Hansen, et al., “Perceptions of Climate Change,” PNAS 10.1073, August 2012
2
3
4
5
Summer Temperatures Have Shifted
Frequency of Occurrence
2001 – 2011
Cooler than average
Baseline (1951 - 1980) mean
Average
The “extreme”
Warmer than average
temperature events
used to cover 0.1% of
Extremely hot
the Earth. Now they
cover 10%.
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
Deviation from Mean
Source: Hansen, et al., “Perceptions of Climate Change,” PNAS 10.1073, August 2012
2
3
4
5
Climate Impacts in the
Bay Area
Increased extremes:
More frequent Extreme Heat days
2100:
0-10
2050:
21-30
extreme
11-20
extreme
heat
extreme
heat
days/year
heat
days/year
days/year
Heat kink: train derailment,
July 2012, Washington D.C.
Delhi, India
May 24 2015
© Neale Clark/Robert Harding Photography/Getty Images
Mountain-dwelling pika: climate-forced upslope
migrations:
43’ per decade (average 20th century)
475’ per decade (since the late 1990s)
Climate Impacts in the
Bay Area
Increased extremes:
Deeper and Longer Drought
October 6, 2015
Climate Impacts in the
Bay Area
Increased extremes:
Increased Wildfire Risk
Butte & Valley Fires, CA
Sept 9 –Oct 1, 2015
146,935 acres,
1,755 home destroyed
Tweet from Alaska Dept of Forestry
23 June, 2015
Hottest May in 91
years
152 fires in one
weekend
319 fires in one week
> 1,000,000 acres
burned in June
2100
Current
wildfire
wildfire
risk
risk
Climate Impacts in the
Bay Area
Increased extremes:
Less frequent but larger
storms & floods
Austin, TX
May 26, 2015
Dam Failure, Austin TX
May 2015
Hwy 71 has flooded due 2 Dam rupture in park.
Please seek higher ground immediately! Water
now moving into Tahitian.
1,000+ year rainfall
Columbia, S.C.
Oct 2015
Climate Impacts in the
Bay Area
Increased extremes:
Continuous sea level rise
More frequent and larger
coastal floods
Berkeley, CA
Dec 11, 2014
Ecological Consequences of Climate
Change
• Extinction
• Species relocation to higher
and higher
climb.
altitudes
latitudes as temperatures
The greater the warming in any given region, the farther
its plants and animals have migrated.
• Migratory mismatch: Communities &
ecosystems do not migrate intact
Endangered butterfly defies climate
change with new diet and habitat
How do we manage healthy watersheds
looking forward,
not through a rearview mirror?
The Leopold Report, 1963
What should be the goals of wildlife management in the
national parks?
“biotic associations should be maintained or where
necessary recreated as nearly as possible in the
condition that prevailed” before the arrival of
Europeans
“A national park should present a
vignette of primitive America.”
REVISITING LEOPOLD
Background:
• Wetland meadows are threatened by aridity & tree
encroachment.
• The parks’ goal is to preserve/restore wetlands.
Issues:
• Intervene to keep wetlands wet through actions, such as
stream diversions and snow fencing?
• Remove encroaching trees?
• Move sensitive species (including federally listed frogs
and toads) from vulnerable wetlands to those that are
projected to be refugia?
Revisiting Leopold
The overarching goal of NPS resource management
should be to steward NPS resources for continuous
change that is not yet fully understood…
Resource stewardship within the National Park System
of the future must be accomplished while addressing …
climate change … biodiversity loss,
habitat fragmentation... These challenges will
only accelerate and intensify in the future.
Future resource management based on
historically successful practices cannot
be assumed as effective park
stewardship.
Critical Habitat: ESA Definition
“(i) specific areas within the geographical area occupied by
the species [when listed]” with “physical or biological
features essential to the conservation of the species ….;
and
(ii) specific areas outside the geographical area occupied
[when listed] upon a determination … that such areas are
essential for the conservation of the species.”
ESA climate considerations:
“essential to conservation of the
species”
• What specific areas are likely to become essential?
• When will they become essential and how long will
the conditions last?
• Non-stationarity: Temp, Moisture, Veg Structure,
Competitors, Predators, Phenology, etc.
As resource agencies continue to
grapple with these questions….
What can I do??
Wildland
Considerations
Design for adaptation:
–
Natural firebreaks
– Natural fog catchers
– Increased water
retention
– Climate refuges
Increase plant palette
diversity:
–
Fire resistance
– Drought resistance
– Shade
Manage for
adaptation:
– Adjust grazing for
water retention
– Monitor science
– Recognize that past
successful practices
may not be successful
in future
Urban Creek
Considerations
To date: Creek restoration for flood & ecological
benefits.
Now & future: Multi-benefit creeks
•
Climate refuge for wildlife and people
•
Heat respite for seniors, children, vulnerable
populations
•
Walk/bike corridors for GHG reductions
Creek Mouths/
Bay Interface
Sea level rise risk reduction strategies for
people and coastal ecosystems
• Increased coastal flooding: natural
solutions?
• Wetland restoration: is sediment balance
robust to projected sea level rise?
• Adapting to Rising Tides Project to help
clarify and address these risks…