Transcript Peel-Jan14-NeilC_HeatherA[1]x

Climate Change and Peel Region.
Adaptation to WHAT?
Neil Comer, Simon Eng,
Heather Auld, Erik Sparling
TRCA logo???
CC-RAI logo???
Shuttle Mission Topography/Elevation data
Weather: Conditions today and over the next few days;
“operate day-to-day based on weather”
Climate: Weather over time: Its Extremes, Trends,
Changes; “plan on longer term based on climate”
Climate consists of:
• Average weather – now with new averages and trends
January 12, 2013: High of 14.8C broke records from 1938-2012
• Celebrity high impact storms, the “unusual”
Peel Region Climate and Weather Events
October 29, 2012: Remnants of Hurricane Sandy… “In Mississauga,
2,000 customers reported being without power.”
March 22, 2012: Toronto Pearson high temperature reaches 26.0 C;
warmest March on record for many stations (Toronto Pearson & City)
July 21, 2011: Toronto Pearson Humidex exceeds 48; extreme at 50.3
in July, 1995
Winter 2009-2010: warmest in Canada since nationwide records began
in 1948 - 4.0°C above normal; Lake Ontario temperatures peak at 24C
Peel Region Climate and Weather Events
October 29, 2012: Remnants of Hurricane Sandy… “In Mississauga,
2,000 customers reported being without power.”
March 22, 2012: Toronto Pearson high temperature reaches 26.0 C;
warmest March on record for many stations (Toronto Pearson & City)
Winter 2009-2010: warmest in Canada since nationwide records began
in 1948 - 4.0°C above normal; Lake Ontario temperatures peak at 24C
August 4, 2009: One hour rainfall from a Mississauga gauge exceeded
1 in 100 year event; flooding damages private properties, municipal
and
Peel Region
infrastructure
Tornadoes
in Peel
Region: June 10 1979 & May 31, 1980, Brampton;
July 7, 1985 Meadowvale; June 1923, Hornby to Long Branch; etc.
Peel Region Climate and Weather Events
2009: tornado outbreaks; > 18 tornadoes; Vaughan tornado > $10M in
damages; largest single-day tornado outbreak in Canadian history
2007: Toronto Pearson experienced driest summer in nearly 50 years
with 95 consecutive days without significant rainfall.
Lake Ontario water levels down 0.25 metre from long-term average
2005: southern Ontario tornado outbreak Kitchener-Oshawa; Finch Ave
washout; ~100mm/hour; highest insured loss in Ontario’s history
Winter, 2007-08: Pearson snow total 194 cm; 13 cm shy of record…
Summer 2008: wettest June, July and August on record (396 mm).
Peel Region Climate and Weather Events
Climate variability and extremes…
2005: southern Ontario tornado outbreak Kitchener-Oshawa; Finch
Ave washout; ~100mm/hour; highest insured loss in Ontario’s history
Winter, 2001: 104 day stretch with snow on the ground; longest
snowcover period in record (dating to 1840)
Summer, 2001: Driest summer in 54 years of records (Pearson)
May 12, 2000: Severe t-storms; “extensive damage” Port Credit Yacht
Club, power outages Brampton and Mississauga
January, 1999: Snowiest two-week period since 1846
Tornadoes in Peel Region: June 10 1979 & May 31, 1980, Brampton;
July 7, 1985 Meadowvale; June 1923, Hornby to Long Branch; etc.
Toronto’s Climate has been changing in many ways…
8.8
7.7
YYZ Annual Mean
Temperatures
(Normals)
1961-1990 7.3 C
1971-2000 7.7 C
1981-2010 8.8 C
7.3
Updated Climate Normals (Averages) indicate that Toronto
Pearson Airport has warmed significantly …
Why the concern over weather, climate and
its changes?
U.S. study: >75%of natural disasters are
triggered directly or indirectly by weather and
climate
Need to protect critical municipal assets &
services – water, transportation, telecomm,
buildings and shelters, electricity, energy
Weather Hazards from the “Top 10” List: HIRA’s web-based and survey
(226 municipalities)
flood
heat
cold
hail
fog
ice storm
wind
lightning/
thunderstorm
tornado
hurricane
drought
blizzard/snowstorm
41% of Ontario municipalities named power failures in their top 10 hazards
63% municipalities in this region named power failure in the top 10 hazards
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Top 3 risks in Ontario municipalities
80
70
60
Weather
Weather related
Non-weather
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40
30
20
10
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Risks to Various Infrastructure Types from Increasing
Climate/Weather Extremes (Frequencies/Intensities)
STRUCTURES
Ice Storms
and Wet
Snow
Rainfall
Intensity &
Accum.
Extreme
Winds
Summer
Extreme
Storms &
Snow
Tornadoes
Power Lines &
Transmission
Structures
FAILURE
ice + wind
ADDITIVE
FAILURE
FAILURE
SOME
Communication
FAILURE
ice + wind
ADDITIVE
FAILURE
FAILURE
SOME
Buildings
WET SNOW
DRAINAGE &
FAILURE
FAILURE
FAILURE
FAILURE
Roads, Bridges
OPERATION
RISKS
DRAINAGE &
EROSION
OPERATION
& RISKS
FAILURE
RISK
OPERATION
Stormwater &
Wastewater
POWER
FAILURES
TOTAL
FAILURE
POWER
FAILURES
FAILURE
RISKS
Water Supply &
Distribution
POWER
FAILURES
DROUGHT
POWER
FAILURE
POWER
FAILURE
RISKS
Flexible adaptation options: Work with
Infrastructure Lifecycles
Structures
Expected Lifecycle
Houses/Buildings
Retrofit/alterations 15-20 yrs
Demolition 50-100 yrs
Sewer
Major upgrade 50 yr
Dams/Water Supply
Refurbishment 20-30 yrs
Reconstruction 50 yrs
Bridges
Maintenance annually
Resurface concrete 20-25 yrs
Reconstruction 50-100 yrs
“Tornado proofing”: Building Code &“tornado prone” regions
Confirmed and Probable Tornadoes by Fujita Scale –
Revised and Updated Database (to 2009)
Southern Peel Region Temperature Trends
South - Max/Mean/Min Temperature Trend
16
14
Average Highs
12
10
Daily Averages
8
6
4
Average Lows
2
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
0
Many implications for a changing climate…. Requiring adaptation
Climate Change and Peel Region.
Adaptation to WHAT?
Neil Comer, Simon Eng,
Heather Auld, Erik Sparling
Shuttle Mission Topography/Elevation data
Environment
Canada Stations
Data Length
EC Intensity-Duration-Frequency Stations in the Area (extreme rainfall)
Environment Canada
Lightning Detection Network
(Proxy for extreme events?)
EC – Long Term Historical Climate Indices
- Other climate indices have also been calculated using this dataset
Temperature
Stations
Precipitation
Stations
Historical Lake Ontario Level (m) (IGLD 1985 Datum)
76
75.5
75
74.5
74
Lake Ontario Monthly Average Level 1918-2011 (m)
75.6
2010
2006
2002
1998
1994
1990
1986
1982
1978
1974
1970
1966
1962
1958
1954
1950
1946
1942
1938
1934
1930
1926
1922
1918
73.5
Lake Ontario Monthly Standard Dev (m)
0.34
75.4
0.32
75.2
75
0.3
74.8
0.28
74.6
74.4
0.26
74.2
74
0.24
Jan
Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Jul
Aug Sep
Oct
Nov Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Wave and Wind Statistics
- Also ice coverage, freezeup/breakup (erosion protection)
- Also 2 buoys in western Lake Ontario (seasonal) (45139, 45159)
Historical Wind Frequency and Strength – Pearson A, Toronto Island A
For projections…
• There have been a few local projects already:
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1.PRECIS – U Regina report for MOE
2.Statistical downscaling (95 locations) for MOE
3.WRF Regional Climate Model – (U of T) for MOE
4.SENES Future Weather and climate driver Report for City of
Toronto
Global models: 24 models in the last assessment (2007), but in
the new assessment (2013) there are about 40 models available
from which we can calculate an ensemble
Additional variables/indices can be calculated
from model output (next slide)
27 PROJECTED Climate Change Core Indices (useful for this study?) :
1. FD, Number of frost days: Annual count of days when TN (daily minimum
temperature) < 0oC
2. SU, Number of summer days: Annual count of days when TX (daily maximum
temperature) > 25oC.
3. ID, Number of icing days: Annual count of days when TX (daily maximum
temperature) < 0oC.
4. TR, Number of tropical nights: Annual count of days when TN (daily minimum
temperature) > 20oC.
5. GSL, Growing season length: Annual (1st Jan to 31st Dec in Northern Hemisphere
count between first span of at least 6 days with daily mean temperature TG>5oC and
first span after July 1st of 6 days with TG<5oC.
6. TXx, Monthly maximum value of daily maximum temperature:
7. TNx, Monthly maximum value of daily minimum temperature:
8. TXn, Monthly minimum value of daily maximum temperature:
9. TNn, Monthly minimum value of daily minimum temperature:
10. TN10p, Percentage of days when TN < 10th percentile:
11. TX10p, Percentage of days when TX < 10th percentile:
12. TN90p, Percentage of days when TN > 90th percentile:
13. TX90p, Percentage of days when TX > 90th percentile:
14. WSDI, Warm spell duration index: Annual count of days with at least 6
consecutive days when TX > 90th percentile
15. CSDI, Cold spell duration index: Annual count of days with at least 6 consecutive days
when TN < 10th percentile
16. DTR, Daily temperature range: Monthly mean difference between TX and TN
17. Rx1day, Monthly maximum 1-day precipitation:
18. Rx5day, Monthly maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation:
19. SDII Simple precipitation intensity index: the daily precipitation amount on wet days,
(RR ≥ 1mm), divided by number of wet days.
20. R10mm Annual count of days when PRCP≥ 10mm
21. R20mm Annual count of days when PRCP≥ 20mm:
22. User defined PRCP threshold.
23. CDD. Maximum length of dry spell, maximum number of consecutive days with RR <
1mm
24. CWD. Maximum length of wet spell, maximum number of consecutive days with RR ≥
1mm
25. R95pTOT. Annual total PRCP when RR > 95p.
26. R99pTOT. Annual total PRCP when RR > 99p.
27. PRCPTOT. Annual total precipitation
Example of Canadian Regional Model output variables (CANRCM4) from Env. Canada