Transcript Dr. Rajendra K. Pachauri - EU

Responding to Climate Change in China
By
Dr. R.K. Pachauri
Former Chairman, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2002-2015
EU – China NGO Twinning Workshop, Changsha
August 20, 2016
The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
A clear and up to date view of the current state of scientific knowledge
relevant to climate change.
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Working group I
Working Group II
Working Group III
The Physical Science
Basis
Impacts, Adaptation and
Vulnerability
Mitigation of Climate
Change
259 authors
39 countries
54,677 comments
2 million gigabytes of
numerical data from
climate model
simulations
 Over 9200 scientific
publications cited
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309 authors
70 countries
50,444 comments
Over 12,000 scientific
references cited
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235 authors
57 countries
38,315 comments
Close to 1200
scenarios of
socioeconomic
development analyzed
 Close to 10,000
references to literature
The IPCC Synthesis Report
Integration of three Working Group
Reports of the 5th Assessment,
2013-2014
 WGI: The Physical Science Basis
 WGII: Impacts, Adaptation and
Vulnerability
 WGIII: Climate Change Mitigation
 51 members of the Core Writing
Team
 18 members of the Extended
Writing Team
 18 countries
 8105 comments
 Chaired by the IPCC Chair R.K. Pachauri
 Member governments approved the SPM on 1
November 2014 (total membership of IPCC is 195
governments)
Key Messages
➜
Human influence on the climate system is clear
➜
The more we disrupt our climate, the more we
risk severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts
➜
We have the means to limit climate change and
build a more prosperous, sustainable future
Source: AR5 WGI SPM, AR5 WGII SPM, AR5 WGIII SPM
Humans are changing the climate
It is extremely likely that we are the dominant cause of warming
since the mid-20th century
Year
Globally averaged combined land and ocean surface
temperatures
Source: AR5 WGI SPM
Temperatures continue to rise
Each of the past 3 decades has been successively warmer than
the preceding decades since 1850
Year
Globally averaged combined land and ocean surface
temperatures
Source: AR5 WGI SPM
Oceans absorb most of the heat
➜
More than 90% of the
energy accumulating
in the climate system
between 1971 and
2010 has
accumulated in the
ocean
➜
Land temperatures
remain at historic
highs while ocean
temperatures
continue to climb Source: AR5 SYR
Source: AR5 SYR SPM
Source: AR5 SYR SPM
Source: AR5 SYR SPM
Sources of emissions
Energy production remains the primary driver of GHG emissions
35%
Energy Sector
24%
Agriculture,
forests and
other land uses
21%
Industry
14%
Transport
6.4%
Building
Sector
2010 GHG emissions
Source: AR5 WGIII SPM
Some of the changes in extreme weather and climate events
observed since about 1950 have been linked to human influence
Source: AR5 WGI SPM
Impacts are already underway
•
•
•
Tropics to the poles
On all continents and in the ocean
Affecting rich and poor countries
Source: AR5 WGII SPM
Projected climate changes
Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further
warming and changes in the climate system
Oceans will continue to warm
during the 21st century
It is very likely that the Arctic sea
ice cover will continue to shrink
and thin as global mean surface
temperature rises
Global mean sea level will
continue to rise during the
21st century
Global glacier volume will
further decrease
Source: AR5 WGI SPM
Potential Impacts of Climate Change
Food and water shortages
Increased poverty
Increased displacement of
people
Coastal flooding
Source: AR5 WGII SPM
Climate Change Poses Risk for Food Production
Source: AR5 SYR SPM
Impacts of Climate Change on China
 Major increase in temperature, particularly Northern China
 Over the period 2046-2065 major temperature increase projected
 Annual mean soil moisture projected to decrease
 Annual run off, i.e. water discharged from major rivers, projected to
decrease
 Adverse impacts on yields of rice, particularly in Eastern China
 Maize yield likely to decrease by 25% by the 2080s
 Shanghai likely to face high risk of floods
 Adverse impacts on health, such as from dengue fever
 Overall adverse impact on water availability
Limiting Temperature Increase to 2˚C
Global GHG emissions reduction of 40-70 % in
2050 compared to 2010
Net zero or negative GHG emissions in 2100
Global emissions to curb within next 5-15 years
Source: AR5 WGIII SPM
Mitigation Measures
More efficient use of energy
Greater use of low-carbon and no-carbon energy
• Many of these technologies exist today
Improved carbon sinks
• Reduced deforestation and improved forest management
and planting of new forests
• Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage
Lifestyle and behavioural changes
Source: AR5 WGIII SPM
The window for action is rapidly closing
65% of our carbon budget compatible with a 2°C goal already used
Amount
Remaining:
1000
Total Carbon
Budget:
2900
GtCO2
GtCO2
Amount Used
1870-2011:
1900
GtCO2
Source: AR5 WGI SPM
What will Paris achieve?
 Will exceed the 2oC target
 Does not involve binding commitments
 No provision for penalising failure
 Ignores the message of urgency in IPCC’s AR5
 Upgradation of INDCs only in 2018 and then again in 2023
All stakeholders on board
 Essential for governments, businesses and research organisations
to evaluate compliance with 20C limit
 Greatest assurance of 20C limit lies in RCP 2.6 scenario
 Hence, essential for global society to constantly evaluate
commitments against RCP 2.6 as a pathway
 INDCs dependent on level of ambition in different societies
 Hence, crucially important to raise the level of ambition worldwide
Mitigation opportunities and the role of technology
 Ultimate objectives of Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention
on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations
in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic
interference with the climate system.
 Mitigation scenarios reaching about 450 to 500 ppm CO2eq by 2100 show
significant co-benefits.
 Infrastructure and products with long life could lock societies into rigid
technologies.
 Substantial cuts in GHG emissions required by mid-century through large-scale
changes in energy systems.
 Global CO2 emissions from energy supply sector required to decline over the
next decades by reductions of 90% or more below 2010 levels between 2040
and 2070.
 Behaviour, lifestyle and culture have a considerable influence on energy use
and associated emissions, with high mitigation potential in some sectors, in
particular when complementing technological and structural change.
Mitigation opportunities and the role of technology
(contd…)
 Decarbonization of electricity generation is a key component of mitigation strategies.
 Renewable energy technologies are very attractive options with rapid cost reduction
and efficiency improvements
 Aggregate economic costs of mitigation vary widely, and would require coordinated
pricing of carbon
What is the POP Movement?
• Addresses the Urgent Need to Share
Information and Knowledge Among
Youth About Solutions to:
➜ Achieve
Sustainable Development
Goals
➜ Mitigate Climate Change
➜ Adapt to the Impacts of Climate
Change
PROTECT OUR PLANET
Why the POP Movement?
• Current Lack of Knowledge, Awareness and
Inertia to Implement Climate Change
Solutions are a Major Gap in Action
• The POP Movement Will Create and Serve
the Massive Demand for Action That Can Be
Implemented in Schools, Colleges and
Communities Worldwide
• Knowledge About Climate Change Solutions
Will Be Provided as Part of the POP
Movement
PROTECT OUR PLANET
What Does POP Do?
• The POP Movement:
Mobilizes Young People Globally to
Protect Our Planet
Promotes Collective Action, Especially
Among Youth to Implement Solutions
Needed to Mitigate Climate Change
Recognizes and Reward Youth-Led
Actions, Exemplary Initiatives, and
Success Stories
PROTECT OUR PLANET
POP in 2016
International Advisory Board
PROTECT OUR PLANET
Global Partnerships
PROTECT OUR PLANET
Launch in Mexico
• POP Launches on Earth Day
2016
• Address in the Mexican
Parliament
• Talk at the Annual
Environmental Film Festival
at Cuernavaca
PROTECT OUR PLANET
Upcoming Dominican
Republic Launch
Launch with DREFF in the Dominican
Republic – September 2016
PROTECT OUR PLANET
POP Festival in New York,
2017
POP Will Host a Festival in New York
➜
➜
➜
Showcase Youth Action to Protect Our
Planet
Launch US Partnerships
Support Networking and Cross-Learning
PROTECT OUR PLANET
“Speed is irrelevant if you
are going in the wrong
direction”
- Mahatma Gandhi
If you think in terms of a year,
plant a seed; if in terms of ten
years, plant trees; if in terms
of 100 years, teach the
people.
- Confucius