Transcript PowerPoint - Institute for Earth Science Research and Education

Student Climate Change Research:
Challenges and Opportunities
David R. Brooks, PhD
President, Institute for Earth Science Research
and Education
[email protected]
www.pages.drexel.edu/~brooksdr
Asia-Pacific GLOBE Learning Expedition,
Hua Hin, Thailand
13-18 November, 2007
Introduction
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Climate change is one of the most important science
and public policy challenges for the 21st century.
Today's students will, as adults, inhabit a world that
may be much different from the present world.
Can students and teachers promote understanding of
climate change?
Can students and teachers contribute to climate
science?
What is Climate?
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Climate is not the same as weather, which
includes short-term fluctuations due to seasons
and movements of air masses, for example.
Climate can refer just to regions or the entire
planet.
● average meteorological conditions in a
particular place (30-year averages)
● global conditions (over 1000s of years and
longer)
“Climate is what you expect. Weather is what
you get.” (Robert Heinlein)
What is “Global Climate Change”?
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“Global climate change” means that average conditions
on Earth are changing. In general, these changes are
associated with global warming.
Regional climate changes are already known to be
occurring (e.g., melting of the Arctic ice cap and the
retreat of glaciers). These changes are occurring
rapidly by historical standards and, in some cases,
more rapidly than scientists predicted.
Most Earth scientists agree that although it is possible
that future ice ages eventually may occur, currently the
entire planet is getting warmer more quickly than in
the past, and this will cause dramatic global disruptions
unless it can be controlled.
Thailand's Climate
(Describing a regional climate):
Thailand has a tropical climate with high
temperatures and high relative humidity. It is dominated by
the monsoon cycle. April and May are the hottest months.
June brings the start of the monsoon season, a rainy period
that lasts through October. Temperatures are somewhat
cooler in November through February, with lower humidity
and northeast breezes. The north and northeast are
generally cooler than Bangkok between November and
February, and hotter in summer. Temperatures in Thailand
never fall below freezing (0°C).
Global Climate
Temperature
inferred from
O18/O16 ratios. CO2
measured in
trapped air bubbles.
CO2 and
temperature are
positively
correlated, but
which is the cause
and which is the
effect?
Most scientists
believe that
increasing levels of
CO2 are now
causing global
temperatures to
rise (the
greenhouse effect).
(Data from Russian Vostok Station ice cores, east Antarctica,
a joint Russian, U.S., and French project.)
Global Climate Since the
Last Ice Age
(Data from ice and sediment cores around the globe.)
Recent History
(Since start of Industrial Revolution.)
Possible Effects of Climate Change
in Southeast Asia*
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Sea levels may rise 20 cm by 2030(?). Much of
Bangkok and its surroundings are within 1 m of
present sea level. Valuable coastal farmland will be
lost. Disappearance of beaches will hurt tourism.
There may be reduced rice production due to loss
of land, higher temperatures, and changing rainfall
patterns.
There will be consequences if farmers and
fishermen cannot adapt to changing conditions.
Spontaneous migration of large populations could
be financially disruptive and create more serious
social and environmental problems.
*www.cs.ntu.edu.au/homepages/jmitroy/sid101/uncc/fs121.html
What Can We Do About Climate
Change?
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Quantify indicators of climate change.
Attempt to understand what kinds of
human activities are contributing to
climate change.
Make responsible personal and community
choices about how we use energy.
Hold our governments responsible for
investing in and implementing policies that
protect the environment and move beyond
an economy based on fossil fuels.
The First Big Question:
Can students contribute to
climate change research?
My answer:
Yes, but it is not easy!
What is “real” climate research?
Observations and measurements that:
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are done in collaboration with scientists;
follow established protocols to address
appropriate questions;
are conducted in appropriate places;
are carried out over appropriate time
scales;
use appropriate equipment that is
calibrated and used properly.
The Second Big Question:
Should students contribute to
climate change research?
My answer:
Yes, because research is an essential
part of the science process.
But, does research need to be an essential
part of the science education process?
Countries, schools, teachers, and students
must decide for themselves.
How Do We Do It?
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Understand the problems and ask the right
questions.
Form partnerships among scientists, teachers, and
students, and their institutions.
Make long-term institutional commitments that do
not depend just on individuals.
Make the equipment investments required to
produce high-quality data. (Sometimes these
investments can be small!)
Follow international standards for data collection.
Use automated data collection whenever
appropriate.
Make a commitment to long-term data quality.
How Not To Measure Temperature!
“Official” National Weather Service station in a parking lot at a
major U.S. university, with gravel to “simulate” desert conditions.
Is Philadelphia’s Climate
Changing?
What Do These Data Tell You?
Is Philadelphia’s Climate
Changing?
You can’t tell from
these data!
(The air temperature measurements
have not been made according to
accepted international standards.)
Students can do better!
Measuring Air Temperature
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The international standard is a “Stevenson screen”
The GLOBE thermometer shelter is smaller. Are
temperatures different? I don’t know.
Stevenson screen
80 x 61 x 59 cm
GLOBE shelter
50 x 28 x 20 cm
Climate Changes Are Small!
Is the number of Atlantic
tropical cyclones related
To sea surface temperature?
M. E. Mann, K. A. Emanuel, G. J. Holland,
P. J. Webster: Atlantic Tropical Cyclones
Revisited, EOS, 88, 36, 4 September 2007.
28C
27C
Some Research Students and
Teachers Can Do
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Photographing the solar aureole and the
sky.
Radiometry – recording total insolation
and UV irradiance
Sun photometry – recording changes in
aerosol optical depth and water vapor
Reflectivity – monitoring changes in
surface reflectance (albedo)
Air and soil temperatures – monitoring
long-term changes in soil temperature
(related to soil moisture)
Sky Photography
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The “aureole” is the circular region of lightcolored sky around the sun. It is caused by
scattering from dust and other aerosols in the
atmosphere. A very clear sky produces a small
aureole, and a very “dirty” sky can produce a
very large aureole.
Digital photographs of the sun can be analyzed to
determine the size of the aureole, which can be
related to atmospheric conditions, including
aerosols.
Photos of the sky, pointing away from the sun,
can also be related to air pollution and aerosols.
Photographing the Solar Aureole
Do NOT look through
an optical viewfinder!!
Direct sun photos may
damage a digital
camera.
Canon PowerShot
A530, F5.6 @ 1/1600 s
on a very clear day.
Use the same F-stop
and shutter speed
for every photo.
Analysis with ImageJ
software, available as
a free download from
http://rsb.info.nih.gov/ij/download.html
Sky Looking North at Solar Noon
Twilight Glow from Polluted Sky
How Does Photography Become
Climate Science?
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Always use the same camera – one with manual settings for
focus, exposure time, and f-stop.
Use the same f-stop and exposure settings, and focus at
infinity. (Do not use “automatic” settings.)
Use the highest resolution that your camera supports.
Always photograph the same scene, and include a little land
or water below the horizon, to track seasonal changes on the
ground.
Photograph the scene at the same time of day, for example,
twilight or solar noon.
Do not apply digital enhancements or resize or compress the
image.
Collect images regularly over long periods of time.
Keep careful records about scenes, dates, times, and camera
settings, including your latitude, longitude, and elevation.
Bringing the Sun Down to Earth
Weather and climate are controlled by the sun’s interaction
with Earth’s surface and atmosphere. This is a basic topic
for Earth science education. There are many measurements
students can make to improve understanding of these
interactions.
Measuring Insolation:
Student Pyranometer Data
Cloud Climatologies in Texas
1-hr means and
standard deviations of
1-min samples
Broadband and Near-IR Reflectivity
UV Radiometry
Smoke in the atmosphere reduces
UV radiation reaching Earth’s surface.
This can disrupt ecosystems and may
be associated with bird flu.* UV-A
radiation can be monitored with a
relatively inexpensive (~$150) radiometer.
It uses a blue LED that responds to
radiation with a strong peak around
372 nm.
*
Mims, Forrest M. III.
Avian Influenza and UV-B Blocked by Biomass Smoke.
Environmental Health Perspectives, 113, 12, 806-807, December 2005.
Measuring Aerosols
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Sun photometers can be used to
monitor absorption and scattering of
sunlight by particles in the atmosphere
(aerosols), by measuring the “aerosol
optical thickness.”
The effects of aerosols are one of the
larger uncertainties in computer
models used to predict future climate.
The sun photometer shown here uses
LEDs to measure aerosol optical
thickness at green and red
wavelengths.
Hundreds of these instruments have
been used around the world, with
student data included in papers
published in peer-reviewed science
journals.
Aerosols in Rural Arkansas
Aerosols in Puerto Rico
Water Vapor in Puerto Rico
Does Anybody Need More
Temperature Measurements?
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Yes! There are hardly any long-term
simultaneous records of air temperature
and soil temperature.
These data are important for agriculture
and pest management.
Changes in soil temperature can be
indicators of climate change (for example,
melting permafrost).
The relationship between soil and air
temperature depends on soil moisture,
another indicator of climate change (in
tropical climates?).
Air and Soil Temperature in Pennsylvania
Conclusions
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I have briefly described some research areas in which
students and teachers can make significant contributions to
climate science. Other scientists will have other ideas.
Students CAN make significant contributions to climate
science, because predictions of future climate depend on
having many sources of reliable long-term data.
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The stable physical environment around schools provides
major advantages for this kind of research.
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Climate change research must be conducted over the long
term – years, rather than months.
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School-based student research must be chosen carefully and
conducted in collaboration with scientists.
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School administrators and the education establishment must
be willing and able to provide long-term institutional support,
including science support that goes beyond what is required
for educational support.
Thank you for the opportunity to
discuss student climate change
research.
I hope there are many questions!