Transcript Workshop PowerPoint (PPT slides)

Welcome
Dynamics of Climate
Tippecanoe County
Park & Rec. Dept.
Developed By
Project Directors
•
Dan Shepardson (PI), Professor of Geoenvironmental and Science Education, Departments of Curriculum and Instruction and
Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Purdue University
•
Dev Niyogi (CoPI), Indiana State Climatologist and Associate Professor, Departments of Agronomy and Earth, Atmospheric, and
Planetary Sciences, Purdue University
Development Team
•
Adam Baker, Meteorologist, National Weather Service- Indianapolis, IN
•
Cheryl Bell, External Evaluator, Bell Academic Opportunities Inc., Schererville, IN
•
Mary Cutler, Naturalist, Tippecanoe County Parks & Rec. Dept.
•
Olivia Kellner, Graduate Student, Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Purdue University. Meteorologist, National
Weather Service – Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
•
Mark Koschmann, Science Teacher, St. John’s Lutheran School, Midland, MI
•
Ted Leuenberger, Retired science teacher
•
Hans Schmitz, Purdue Extension, Gibson County, Agriculture and Natural Resources Extension Educator
•
Ian Pope, Graduate Student, Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Purdue University
•
Jan Sneddon, Director of Community Partnerships, Earth Force
This program was supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF), award number GEO-1034821. The opinions, findings, and
conclusions or recommendations expressed in this program are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the NSF.
Purpose and Goals
Purpose: Improve your climate literacy
By the end of the workshop you should be able to answer
these four main questions:
Goals:
• What is a climate system and its components?
• What are causes and effects of component change?
• What are the impacts of these changes?
• What can we do about it?
Where are you on the climate
knowledge continuum?
How confident do you feel in your knowledge of
the components of a climate system?
1
Not at all
Confident
6
Moderately
Confident!
Where are you on the climate
knowledge continuum?
How well do you understand the causes and
effects of changes to the components of the
climate system?
1
6
No
Moderately
Thoroughly
Understanding
Understand
Understand
Where are you on the climate
knowledge continuum?
How well do you understand the impacts of
changes to the Earth’s climate system?
1
6
No
Moderately
Thoroughly
Understanding
Understand
Understand
Where are you on the climate
knowledge continuum?
How prepared/empowered do you feel as an
individual to address the issue of climate change?
1
I feel
Hopeless 
6
I’m sure there’s
something I can do
I have the
POWER!
Concepts Covered
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Climate and Weather
Earth’s Energy Budget
Greenhouse Gases and Greenhouse Effect
Carbon Cycle
Global Warming, Climate Variability, and Climate
Change
Climate System
Changes to the Climate System
Adaptations and Mitigation
Personal Actions
Climate System
What makes up the Earth’s climate
system?
Draw a picture, with labels, of what components make up a
climate system.
Natural Climate System
Components of a Climate System
Human Influenced Climate System
In Summary:
A region's climate is generated
by the climate system:
Atmosphere, Ice, Vegetation,
Land, and Oceans
Key Terms:
• Weather is the present condition of temperature,
humidity, wind, precipitation, and other
meteorological elements and their variations over
short time periods—hours and days.
• Climate is the long term—30 plus year—average
of temperature, humidity, wind, precipitation,
and other meteorological elements.
• Climate System is the Earth’s components that
influence climate.
Greenhouse Gases
and the
Greenhouse Effect
What do you think are the greenhouse gases?
How would you define the greenhouse effect?
Earth’s Atmospheric Gases
Carbon Dioxide,
0.03%
Misc. Gases, 0.01%
Water Vapor,
1.96%
Argon, 0.91%
Oxygen, 20.54%
Misc. Gases
Carbon Dioxide
Water Vapor
Argon
Oxygen
Nitrogen
Nitrogen, 76.55%
Earth’s Greenhouse Gases
Greenhouse gases absorb and emit infrared
radiation (long wave). They do not absorb
short wave radiation (most of incoming solar
radiation).
Greenhouse Effect
How Humans Impact the
Carbon Cycle and Greenhouse Effect
The Carbon Cycle: Sources and
Sinks
Carbon Cycle:
with human influence
units are peta grams (1,000,000,000,000,000 grams)
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/research/themes/carbon/img/carboncycle.gif
Global Human Greenhouse Gas
Emissions
F-gases
1%
N2O
8%
CH4
14%
F-gases
N2O
CH4
CO2 (deforestation,
decay of biomass, etc)
CO2 (other)
CO2 (fossil fuel use)
CO2 (fossil fuel
use)
57%
CO2
(deforestation,
decay of
biomass, etc)
CO2 (other)
3% IPCC (2007) 17%
Carbon Dioxide Data: The
Keeling Curve
30 billion tons of carbon dioxide are annually added
to the atmosphere as a result of human activity
Greenhouse Effect
In Summary
•
•
•
•
Carbon Cycle: Source and Sinks
Greenhouse Gases
Greenhouse Effect
Human Influences
Earth’s Energy Budget:
The Driver of Climate
The Earth’s Energy Budget and the
Climate System
• How would changing
the Earth’s surface
impact the absorption,
reflection, and radiation
of the sun’s energy?
Albedo
To calculate albedo, divide the reflective
light by the incidence (incoming) light:
Albedo = Reflective light
Incidence light
to convert to a percentage multiply by 100
For example: The florescent lights
measured 507 lux (incidence light) and the
floor measured 87 lux (reflective light). The
floors albedo is:
87 lux/507 lux = 0.17 albedo
In other words the floor is reflecting 0.17
(17%) and absorbed 0.83 (83%) of the light.
Material
Fresh Snow
Thick Cloud
Water (sun near horizon)
Old Snow
Thin soil
Dry soil
Wet soil
Deciduous forest
Dark soil
Asphalt
Crops
Coniferous forest
Water (sun near zenith)
Percent Reflected
80-95
70-80
50-80
50-60
25-45
20-25
15-25
15-20
5-15
5-10
10-25
10-15
3-5
Source: Avery and Berlin (1992)
Summary of Earth’s Energy Budget
We change the Earth’s Energy
Budget by:
1) Changing the Earth’s Albedo, changing
the Earth’s land surface and land cover
And/or
2) Enhancing the greenhouse effect
These Changes Cause
GLOBAL WARMING
Global Warming
BREAK
Climate Data, Variability, &
Change
Analyzing Data from Local to
Global Scales
Local
Regional/
State
National
“Zooming Out” to See Big Picture
Global
Local
ANNUAL MEAN TEMPERATURE - CHICAGO
Annual 1958 - 2010 Average = 49.40 degF
Annual 1958 - 2010 Trend = 0.38 degF / Decade
Local
ANNUAL PRECIPITATION - CHICAGO
Annual 1958 - 2010 Average = 35.87 Inches
Annual 1958 - 2010 Trend = 0.92 Inches / Decade
Regional/
State
ANNUAL MEAN TEMPERATURE - INDIANA
Annual 1901 - 2000 Average = 51.76 degF
Annual 1895 - 2010 Trend = 0.03 degF / Decade
Regional/
State
ANNUAL PRECIPITATION - INDIANA
Annual 1901 - 2000 Average = 40.10 Inches
Annual 1895 - 2010 Trend = 0.44 Inches / Decade
National
ANNUAL MEAN TEMPERATURE - CONUS
Annual 1901 - 2000 Average = 52.79 degF
Annual 1895 - 2010 Trend = 0.12 degF / Decade
National
ANNUAL PRECIPITATION - CONUS
Annual 1901 - 2000 Average = 29.14 Inches
Annual 1895 - 2010 Trend = 0.18 Inches / Decade
Global
ANNUAL MEAN TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES - GLOBAL
Global
ANNUAL PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES - GLOBAL
Did you notice any variability over
time and the different spatial scales?
Other Climate Data Types
El Niño / La Niña
Typical Wintertime Patterns
Sea Ice Extent
Drought Information
The chart below shows temperature changes in the
Pacific Ocean waters off of the coast of Peru from 1950
to 2013. The red areas of the chart above the normal
line record El Niño events.
Predicting Our Future Climate
The Advance of Climate Model
Computing Power
Verification of Simulated Temperature
Source: IPCC
Different Simulation Scenarios of
Various CO2 Concentrations
Source: IPCC AR4
Climate Change Simulations:
Possible Future Outcome
Climate Change Simulation, 1870–2100
Dual-globe View, Climate Change Simulation,
1870–2100
NCAR/UCAR
National Center for Atmospheric Research
University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
LUNCH
Changes
in the
Climate System
Wisconsin Educational Communications Board
Looking at Data
How do the data show possible changes in the system?
Changes to the Climate System
How have individual components changed over time?
What is the evidence of this change?
How is this change related to global warming?
Describe how the other components of the climate system impact the
component.
Describe how changes to the component might impact the other
components of the climate system
How might these changes impact climate?
Ice
http://www.nat-park.com/grinnell-glacier-glacier-national-park/
http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/greenland-ice-sheet/greenland-ice-sheet-assessment-published
Change in Volume of Glaciers
Worldwide, 1960-2006
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/indicators.html
Mass Balance of Three Typical U.S.
Glaciers, 1958-2008
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/indicators.html
Duration of Ice Cover for Selected U.S.
Lakes, 1850-2000
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/indicators.html
Ice Freeze Dates for Selected U.S.
Lakes, 1850-2000
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/indicators.html
Ice Thaw Dates for Selected U.S. Lakes,
1850-2000
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/indicators.html
September 2001
March 2002
September 2004
March 2005
Black dot = North Pole Yellow lines indicate normal extent of ice
September 2007
March 2008
September 2009
NASA Earth Observatory
March 2010
Snow-Covered Area in North America,
1972-2008
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/indicators.html
Trends in April Snowpack in the
Western U.S. and Canada, 1950-2000
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/indicators.html
Looking at Data
How do the data show possible changes in the system?
Oceans
Temperature Change
Global temperature change (NASA)
Ocean Heat Content, 1955-2008
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/indicators.html
Average Global Sea Surface
Temperature, 1880-2009
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/indicators.html
Trends in Global Average Absolute Sea
Level, 1870-2008
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/indicators.html
Trends in Relative Sea Level Among
U.S. Coasts, 1958-2008
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/indicators.html
Historical Change in Ocean Acidity,
1700s-1990s
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/indicators.html
Ocean Carbon Dioxide Levels and
Acidity, 1983-2005
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/indicators.html
Coral
Bleaching
Episodes
The chart below shows temperature changes in the
Pacific Ocean waters off of the coast of Peru from 1950
to 2006. The red areas of the chart above the normal
line record El Niño events.
Looking at Data
How do the data show possible changes in the system?
Vegetation
Change in Plant Hardiness Zones,
1990-2006
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/indicators.html
Beech Trees
http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov
Loblolly Pine predicted range
with temperature increases.
Green: High productive areas
Yellow: Average productive areas
Red: Low productive areas
Niche model geographic range prediction sequence for loblolly pine under a climate scenario of geographically
uniform increase in mean, maximum, and minimum annual temperature, by half degree increments.
http://www.colorado.edu/research/cires/banff/pubpapers/104/
Sugar Maple predicted ranges
with temperature increases.
Green: High productive areas
Yellow: Average productive areas
Red: Low productive areas
Niche model geographic range prediction sequence for sugar maple under a climate scenario of geographically
uniform increase in mean, maximum, and minimum annual temperature, by half degree increments.
http://www.colorado.edu/research/cires/banff/pubpapers/104/
Length of Growing Season in the Lower
48 States, 1900-2002
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/indicators.html
Length of Growing Season in the Lower
48 States, 1900-2002, West Versus East
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/indicators.html
Trends in Forest Cover
http://www.globalforestwatch.org
http://www.flickr.com
First Leaf Dates in the Lower 48 States,
1900-2008
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/indicators.html
First Bloom Dates in the Lower 48
States, 1900-2008
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/indicators.html
Timing of Last Spring Frost and First Fall
Frost in the Lower 48, 1900-2002
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/indicators.html
Average Acres per Wildfire, 1960-2007
http://westinstenv.org
Looking at Data
How do the data show possible changes in the system?
Land
World Population Density 2000
Source: Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University and
Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT)
Sketch of an Urban Heat-Island Profile
http://heatisland.lbl.gov/
Urban Environments and Climate
Environmental
Parameter
Temperature
Impact
Wind
+2-8oF annual mean
+2-3 week freeze-free season
+5-20% calm days
Relative Humidity
-2% winter, -8% summer
Cloudiness
+5-10% cloud cover
Precipitation
+5-10% amount
Desertification Vulnerability
http://soils.usda.gov/use/worldsoils/mapindex/desert.html
Percent Area of the United States in
Severe and Extreme Drought
Northward Shift of Bird Migrations,
1966-2005
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/indicators.html
Changes in Land Cover (1700-1990)
Looking at Data
How do the data show possible changes in the system?
Atmosphere
U.S. Greenhouse Emissions by Gas,
1990-2008
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/indicators.html
U.S. Greenhouse Emissions and Sinks
by Economic Sector, 1990-2008
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/indicators.html
Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions by
Gas, 1990-2005
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/indicators.html
Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions by
Sector, 1990-2005
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/indicators.html
Annual Precipitation, US
Indiana Annual Precipitation
Precipitation in the Lower 48 States,
1901-2009
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/indicators.html
Rate of Precipitation Change in the
U.S., 1901-2008
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/indicators.html
Temperatures in the Lower 48 States,
1901-2009
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/indicators.html
Rate of Temperature Change in the
U.S., 1901-2008
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/indicators.html
Annual Temperature, U.S.A.
Indiana Annual Temperature
Temperature Change
Global temperature change (NASA)
Looking at Data
How do the data show possible changes in the system?
Systems Summary
• What are the major changes in the different
components?
• What are the different data that are used in
understanding these changes?
• How do changes in one component affect the
others?
• What could be the relation between GW and
the system changes? (causes and effects)
BREAK
Adaptation
and
Mitigation:
Responding to a Changing
Climate
Adaptations and Mitigation:
An Introduction
• What are the roles of
mitigation and adaptation
in responding to climate
change?
• What are several actions
that humans can take as
individuals and as a
society to adapt to and
mitigate the impacts of
climate change?
Wisconsin Educational Communications Board
Wedge Stabilization Game
This presentation is based on the “Stabilization Wedges”
concept first presented in:
"Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the
next 50 Years with Current Technologies,” S. Pacala and R.
Socolow, Science, August 13, 2004.
Or visit our wedges webpage at
http://www.princeton.edu/wedges
Fossil Fuel
Burning
8
billion
tons go in
4
billion tons added every
year
800
billion tons carbon
Ocean
Land Biosphere (net)
2
+
2
=
4
billion tons go out
Past, Present, and Potential Future
Carbon Levels in the Atmosphere
1200
“Doubled” CO2
800
Today
Pre-Industrial
600
400
Glacial
Billions of tons of carbon
(570)
(380)
(285)
(190)
billions of tons
carbon
(
ppm
)
Historical Emissions
16
Billions of Tons
Carbon Emitted per
Year
8
0
1950
Historical
emissions
2000
2050
2100
The Stabilization Triangle
16
Billions of Tons
Carbon Emitted per
Year
Stabilization
Triangle
8
Historical
emissions
Interim Goal
Flat path
1.6
0
1950
2000
2050
2100
The Stabilization Triangle
16
Easier CO2 target
Billions of Tons
Carbon Emitted per
Year
~850 ppm
Stabilization
Triangle
8
Historical
emissions
Interim Goal
Flat path
1.6
0
1950
2000
2050
2100
Stabilization Wedges
16
Billions of Tons
Carbon Emitted per
Year
16 GtC/y
Eight “wedges”
Goal: In 50 years, same
global emissions as today
8
Historical
emissions
Flat path
1.6
0
1950
2000
2050
2100
What is a “Wedge”?
A “wedge” is a strategy to reduce carbon emissions that grows
in 50 years from zero to 1.0 GtC/yr. The strategy has already
been commercialized at scale somewhere.
1 GtC/yr
Total = 25 Gigatons carbon
50 years
Cumulatively, a wedge redirects the flow of 25 GtC in its first 50 years.
This is 2.5 trillion dollars at $100/tC.
A “solution” to the CO2 problem should provide at least one wedge.
15 Wedge Strategies in 4 Categories
Energy Efficiency &
Conservation (4)
16 GtC/y
Fuel Switching
(1)
CO2 Capture
& Storage (3)
Renewable Fuels
& Electricity (4)
Stabilization
Stabilization
Triangle
8 GtC/y
2007
2057
Nuclear Fission (1)
Forest and Soil Storage
(2)
Take Home Messages
• In order to avoid a doubling of atmospheric CO2, we need to
rapidly deploy low-carbon energy technologies and/or
enhance natural sinks
• We already have an adequate portfolio of technologies to
make large cuts in emissions
• No one technology can do the whole job – a variety of
strategies will need to be used to stay on a path that avoids a
CO2 doubling
• Every “wedge” has associated impacts and costs
Wedge Strategy Summary:
The impact on the components of
the climate system?
1
Actions
and
Impacts
Climate System – Action Steps
Example Climate Change Impact
•
•
•
•
Climate Issue  Impact Actions
Increased rain  flooding  rain barrels
Increased hot days  Higher utility bills 
Plant native shade trees
Longer growing season  Increased crop yield
potential  Revised planting dates/strategies
Altered tropical wind/circulation  Increased
threat of pests and pathogens  Altered
pesticide use
Scenarios:
Responding to a Changing Climate
Think about:
• Which activity/activities you could engage in and
why?
• Which activity/activities would be difficult for you to
do and why?
• Which activities your community could implement
and why?
Changing the World through
Influence
• Liking
– People respond more positively to people they view positively.
• Social Proof
– People do things they see others do.
• Authority
– People tend to obey figures of authority.
• Perceived Scarcity
– A perceived lack of something makes that item more valuable.
• Reciprocity
– People tend to return a favor.
• Consistency
– People do things they see as exemplifying their image of
themselves.
(Cialdini, Robert (2008). “Influence: Science and Practice.” 5th ed. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson.)
What I will do today and
tomorrow?
Three local climate issues
-Individual actions to mitigate or adapt
Example: Recycling reduces energy use and landfill space
Individual  Community &
Regional
• How does this action impact the community?
• How can one persuade others to take this
action?
• If the community takes this action, does it
impact a broader group of people?
• If so, how can this broad group take action to
continue expanding the impact? (regional and
beyond)
Citizen Action Examples
•
•
•
•
•
iMatter Video
Climate education networks
Cornell Citizen Science Clearinghouse
USGS Gauging Stations
CoCoRaHS (Community Collaborative Rain Hail
& Snow Networks)
• Earth Force
• Hoosier Riverwatch
The Road Traveled: Revisiting the
Purpose and Goals
Purpose: Improve your climate literacy
Goals:
• What is a climate system and its components?
• What are causes and effects of component change?
• What are the impacts of these changes?
• What can we do about it?
Where do you line up on the Climate Knowledge Continuum
now?
Where are you on the climate
knowledge continuum?
How confident do you feel in your knowledge of
the components of a climate system?
1
Not at all
Confident
6
Moderately
Confident!
Where are you on the climate
knowledge continuum?
How well do you understand the causes and
effects of changes to the components of the
climate system?
1
6
No
Moderately
Thoroughly
Understanding
Understand
Understand
Where are you on the climate
knowledge continuum?
How well do you understand the impacts of
changes to the Earth’s climate system?
1
6
No
Moderately
Thoroughly
Understanding
Understand
Understand
Where are you on the climate
knowledge continuum?
How prepared/empowered do you feel as an
individual to address the issue of climate change?
1
I feel
Hopeless 
6
I’m sure there’s
something I can do
I have the
POWER!
Wrap-up: Topics Covered
Climate and Weather
Earth’s Energy Budget
Greenhouse Gases and Greenhouse Effect
Carbon Cycle
Global Warming, Climate Variability, and
Climate Change
Climate System
Changes to the Climate System
Adaptation and Mitigation
Personal Actions
For Additional Information
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