Maes et al., 2011

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Transcript Maes et al., 2011

Pacific Panel
Major activities over the past year
• Panel meeting in Guayaquil, Ecuador, October 2010
• International Workshop on ENSO, Decadal Variability and
Climate Change in South America, Guayaquil, Ecuador,
October 2010
• SPCZ workshop, Aug 2010, Samoa Islands.
• International workshop on North Pacific West Boundary
Current dynamics, May 2010, Qingdao
• Workshop “New strategies for evaluating ENSO processes
in climate models”, Paris, France, November 2010
• EGU ENSO sessions
• Coordination of NPOCE, GAIA, ITF, OKMC, SPICE and
PCCSP, plus “MIXET”
Pacific panel
Major future plans/activities
• Indonesian Throughflow Task Team (jointly with
IOP)
• Strengthen links and develop activities with
PICES and other “green” programmes
• Development of several review papers (the South
Pacific Convergence Zone, Intra-seasonal
Oscillation, and WBCs’ response to global
warming.
• Support for South America East Boundary
Current research
• Continue coordination of major programs
Workshops/meetings planned
• ITF Task Team meeting, early 2012, Indonesia
• 7th Pacific Panel meeting, 29 April – 01 May 2012
– Noumea, New Caledonia.
• NPOCE open science meeting, early 2012.
Pacific Panel
Recent scientific highlights
• J Climate paper “Wind effect on past and future sea level
trends in the Southern Indo-Pacific”
• SPCZ and climate change
• J Climate paper “Impact of Decadal Pacific Oscillation on
regional drought and flood” led to a Wall Street Journal
opinion piece
• Climate dynamic paper “Impact of mean state climate
change on ENSO flavours”
• Paper on ENSO instablitity analysis published.
• Continuing work on “El Niño and Climate Change” after
Nature Geoscience paper.
• NPOCE conducted its major (52-day long) investigation
survey to the Northwestern Pacific.
Detection: Ensemble Mean Std. Dev. 30-year
NINO3
5-95%tiles of ensemble mean
obs
Natural variability
5-95%tiles
Collins et al. 2011
obs
Risk of Large El Nino Event
Position and flux associated with ENSO
Vincent et al. 2010
Tropical Cyclone Genesis
As in Vincent et al 2010 but extending to
2008
EOF 2, 16%
EOF2
EOF 1, 48%
EOF1
Applied to 24 CMIP3 models since 1950
PIC runs, only 11 models are able to produce
Aggregated over 11 models
Control experiments
Climate Change experiments
SST and Wind Projection in CMIP3
SST response to CO2 is Characterized by enhanced
Equatorial warming
Convergence of trades towards equator
Ekman suction in South-Western Pacific
Timmermann et al. 2011
Regional % deviations relative to global mean sea rise (2001-2100)
Wind-induced acceleration of global mean sea level rise
IPCC (2007)
Rahmstorf (2007)
10% means delay by
1 decade per century
Wind-induced deceleration of global mean sea level rise
Cai et al. 2010
Changes in the number of EP and CP El Nino events
CP El Nino
EP El Nino
(20-yr sliding frequency of CP El Nino (red sold line) and EP El Nino(black
dashed line). 20-yr sliding frequency is defined by counting each El Nino event
during the 20-yr period)
Choi et al. (2010)
Pacific Panel
Issues and challenges (for input to JSC)
NPOCE
OKMC
TAO/TRITON
ITF
GAIA
MONITORING
Pacific climate
change science
Programme
PCCSP
NPOCE launched in May, 2010
Design and progress of NPOCE field experiment
Deployed moorings and buoy by IOCAS, OUC and KORDI
NPOCE activities (2010-2011)
NPOCE timeline (Hu et al., 2010, NPOCE Science/Implementation Plan)
POSEIDON Project
Workshop, Oct. 2010,
Jeju, Korea
NPOCE Coordinating
Meeting, Mar. 28,
2011, Busan, Korea
1 Korean buoy
deployed in May
2010
2 Chinese moorings deployed, 8
Argo floats and 30 ARGOs
drifters released in Dec. 2010
2 Chinese moorings to
be recovered and
replaced in Jun. 2011
2 Japanese moorings
to be deployed in Aug.
2011
The first NPOCE cruise of China
(November, 2010-January, 2011)
75kHz ADCPs + EvoLogics
Acoustic Modem, 400 m
DVS
700 m
1200 m
5450 m
Mooring(2)
Argo(8)/Argos(30)
IXSEA 1500 m
ORE 5500 m
End
Ongoing experiments, Coral Sea
Gliders
(2005/06 and 2007/10)
Gourdeau et al., 2008
Kessler, Davis, Gourdeau
Cruise FLUSEC
(2007)
Maes et al., 2011
XBT and Argo floats
Cruises
(2008-2011)
SECALIS/SECARGO
Maes et al., submitted
(2003-2010);
GBROOS: 2010-2011
Gasparin et al. 2011;
Ganachaud et al., 2008
Observations
Models:
regional 1/12° Coral Sea ROMS
(2008)
regional 1/12° Solomon Sea ORCA
Couvelard et al.
Melet et al. (2010a, c)
Wu et al. 2011