Transcript Folie 1 - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

Climate and Energy in a Complex Transition
Process towards Sustainable Hyderabad
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies by Changing Institutions,
Governance Structures, Lifestyles and Consumption Patterns
Project in the Funding Programme of the German Federal Ministry of
Education and Research (BMBF): “Research for the Sustainable
Development of the Megacities of Tomorrow”
International Consortium lead by
Humboldt University Berlin
Definition of the problem
• Emerging megacity of “Greater Hyderabad”, will
reach 10.5 million inhabitants by 2015
• Modernization and urbanization as well as
consumption and lifestyle changes have led to
growth in commercial energy use and increasing per
capita greenhouse gas emissions
• Hyderabad is predicted vulnerable to climate change
in terms of food production, water management,
biodiversity and livelihoods
• Severe floods in 2002, strong heat waves in 2003
and altogether three drought years between 2000
and 2007 support this assumption
Hyderabad Urban Agglomeration
Population [Mio]
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Annual growth: 3-7%; Contribution of inmigration to growth: 25-30%
Project Structure
Knowledge
Generation
and
Application
Institutions
and
Governance
Structures
WP 2
WP 3
WP 1
Climate Change
WP 4
WP 5
Communication
Strategies
WP 6
Cooperation
Strategies
WP 7
Action Plan
WP 8
Dissemination Strategy
WP 9
WP 10
PROCESSES
Resources/ Environment/
Infrastructure
Food/ Poverty/ Health
Project Management
FIELDS
Project Design
First year's program
Projection of relevant climate/weather variables for
Hyderabad
Identification of qualitative climate impact paths
CO2-Emissions from the city
Reckien/Matthias Lüdeke/Reusswig, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Impacts of projected climate change
for Hyderabad
Objectives:
projected impacts on food security, health, transport,
energy provision, natural resource management
Methods:
historical analogues, mechanistic modelling,
expert/stakeholder interviews
Results:
„climate proofing“ of development plans/pilot projects and
consideration of adaptation to unavoidable climate change
Reckien/Matthias Lüdeke/Reusswig, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Impact Paths
1.Weather-elements:
(a) Extremes
Extreme rainfall events
Heat spells
(b) Averages
annual/seasonal rainfall
annual/seasonal temperature (of daily
min/avg/max)
(c) .....
Reckien/Matthias Lüdeke/Reusswig, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Impact Paths
1.Weather-elements:
(a) Extremes
Extreme rainfall events
Heat spells
(b) Averages
annual/seasonal rainfall
annual/seasonal temperature (of daily
min/avg/max)
(c) ....
Reckien/Matthias Lüdeke/Reusswig, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Historical extreme precipitation events in Hyderabad
8-9/8/2008:
110 mm/day
22-23/08/2000:
240 mm/day
77 slums being completely
washed away
1954:
> 240 mm/day
28/9/1908:
408 mm/day
Reckien/Matthias Lüdeke/Reusswig, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
2. Impact Diagram (subsection)
......
......
Reckien/Matthias Lüdeke/Reusswig, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Cross-cutting:
Several fields affected by one type of event
Reckien/Matthias Lüdeke/Reusswig, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Adaptation
Improvement
of drainage
Reckien/Matthias Lüdeke/Reusswig, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Adaptation
Improvement
of construction
Reckien/Matthias Lüdeke/Reusswig, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Relevant Climate Change Impact Paths for Hyderabad
after a first round of expert and stakeholder consultations
(as of July 09)