Transcript Met 10 - Department of Meteorology and Climate Science

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MET 112 Global Climate Change: Lecture 9
Controls on Climate Change
Professor Menglin Jin
Outline:
 IPCC
 CA Efforts on Energy
 Kyoto Treat
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The UN Framework Convention on
Climate Change
‘stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the
atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous
anthropogenic human induced interference with the climate
system. Such a level should be achieved within a timeframe sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to
climate change, to ensure that food production is not
threatened and to enable economic development to
proceed in a sustainable manner’
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Figure: Courtesy of IPCC
http://www.ipcc.ch/
Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
WGI contribution to IPCC Third Assessment Report
Summary for Policymakers (SPM)
Drafted by a team of 59
Approved ‘sentence by sentence’
by WGI plenary (99 Governments and 45 scientists)
14 chapters
881 pages
120 Lead Authors
515 Contributing Authors
4621 References quoted
IPCC Assessment Report
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 IPCC-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
– Greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise (warming).
– Anthropogenic aerosols tend to produce negative radiative forcing
(cooling)
“The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence
on global climate”
(IPCC) 1997
"There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming
observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human
activities .“
(IPCC), 2001
(IPCC) 2007
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IPCC Assessment Report
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 IPCC-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
– Greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise (warming).
– Anthropogenic aerosols tend to produce negative radiative forcing
(cooling)
“The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence
on global climate”
(IPCC) 1997
"There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming
observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human
activities .“
(IPCC), 2001
The IPCC finds that it is “very likely” that emissions of heattrapping gases from human activities have caused “most of the
observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the
mid-20th century.
(IPCC) 2007
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Human Responsibility for
Climate Change
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The IPCC finds that it is “very likely”
that emissions of heat-trapping gases
from human activities have caused
“most of the observed increase in
globally averaged temperatures since
the mid-20th century.”
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Source: IPCC Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis—Summary for Policymakers.
IPCC video
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 http://www.met.sjsu.edu/metr112videos/MET%20112%20Video%20LibraryMP4/future%20impact%20from%20ipcc/
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Model Sensitivity
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 Models (like the atmosphere) are sensitive
systems.
 They can respond differently to the same
radiative forcing, e.g., a doubling of CO2
– This means that different models give
different answers to the same problem
– Thus, we use a range of models to determine
the range of possible future scenarios.
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Model Sensitivity
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 Models (like the atmosphere) are sensitive
systems.
 They can respond differently to the same
radiative forcing, e.g., a doubling of CO2
–
– Thus, we use a range of models to determine
the range of possible future scenarios.
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Emission Scenarios
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
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SRES (special report on emission scenarios)
Scenarios
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CO2 concentrations (amount)
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Future Predictions: Temperature
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Notes on Temperature Projections
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 Projected Warming: 2000 – 2100 ranges from
~1.4°C to ~5.8°C.
 Curves represent warming produced for seven
scenarios by a model with average sensitivity.
 Each bar on right represent range of warming
produced
– by models of differing sensitivies for a
specific scenario.
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Land areas are projected to warm more than the
oceans with the greatest warming at high latitudes
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Annual mean temperature change, 2071 to 2100
relative to 1990: Global Average in 2085 = 3.1oC
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Some areas are projected to become wetter,
others drier with an overall increase projected
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Annual mean precipitation change: 2071 to 2100 Relative to 1990 18
Sea Level
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Sea Level Rise
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Annual mean precipitation change: 2071 to 2100 Relative to 1990 20
Climate Change Impacts
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 What signals would we expect from a warmer world?
– Higher average temperature
– Higher maximum temperatures
– Higher minimum temperatures
– More precipitation
– Higher sea level
– etc
 What ‘evidence’ do we have for changes in the 20th
century?
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Tons of CO2 emitted per person
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US CO2 Emissions
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 Total emissions ~ 5,788.5 million metric tons
 ~ 22 metric tons per person
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Industry: 35%
Transportation: 33%
Residences: 18%
Commercial: 14%
 1,600 million metric tons due to personal use (~33%)
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Average US Personal Energy Use
(Per Person)
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Automobile fuel: 38 gallons per month
Natural Gas: 15 therms per month
Electricity: 190 Kilowatt-hours per month
Airline Miles flown 147 miles per month
Total:
Latest estimate ~ 17,600 lbs of CO2
Kyoto allowance (for US):
~11,000 pounds
To stabilize climate (550ppm)
4,700 pounds
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Mitigation of climate change
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 Mitigation:
– Steps taken to avoid or minimize negative
environmental impacts.
Mitigation can include:
• avoiding the impact by not taking a certain action;
• minimizing impacts by limiting the degree or
magnitude of the action;
• rectifying the impact by repairing or
restoring the affected environment
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The Kyoto Protocol was adopted
in Kyoto, Japan,
on 11 December 1997 and
entered into force on
16 February 2005
The Kyoto Protocol is an international agreement linked to
the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.
The major feature of the Kyoto Protocol is that it sets binding
targets for 37 industrialized countries and the European community
for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
These amount to an average of five per cent against 1990 levels
over the five-year period 2008-2012.
The Kyoto Protocol
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A United Nations sponsored effort:
– Calls for reductions of greenhouse gas emissions by
industrialized countries of 5.2 per cent below 1990 levels.
– The Protocol will go into force after
1. The protocol has been ratified by a minimum of 55
countries.
2. The ratifying nations comprise 55% of global
greenhouse gas emissions.
– Current status:
 156 countries have signed accounting for 61% of global
CO2.
 US not planning on signing protocol (US accounts for
36% of CO2 emitted)
 Kyoto protocol went into force in Feb 2005
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Kyoto Protocol

Aim:
–
Ways to reduce increasing GHG

Goals:
–
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Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national
economy
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Kyoto Protocol

Aim:
–
Ways to reduce increasing GHG

Goals:
–
–
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Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national
economy
Protection and enhancement of sinks
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Kyoto Protocol

Aim:
–
Ways to reduce increasing GHG

Goals:
–
–
–
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Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national
economy
Protection and enhancement of sinks
Promote sustainable agriculture
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Kyoto Protocol

Aim:
–
Ways to reduce increasing GHG

Goals:
–
–
–
–
–
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Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national
economy
Protection and enhancement of sinks
Promote sustainable agriculture
Research and promote new and renewable energy
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Kyoto Protocol

Aim:
–
Ways to reduce increasing GHG

Goals:
–
–
–
–
–
–
Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national
economy
Protection and enhancement of sinks
Promote sustainable agriculture
Research and promote new and renewable energy
Phase out any incentives for ‘bad practice’
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Kyoto Protocol

Aim:
–
Ways to reduce increasing GHG

Goals:
–
–
–
–
–
–
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Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national
economy
Protection and enhancement of sinks
Promote sustainable agriculture
Research and promote new and renewable energy
Phase out any incentives for ‘bad practice’
Encourage ‘good practices’
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IPCC video
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 http://www.met.sjsu.edu/metr112videos/MET%20112%20Video%20LibraryMP4/future%20impact%20from%20ipcc/
 UN Climate Change Conference.mp4
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Kyoto Protocol

Aim:
–
Ways to reduce increasing GHG

Goals:
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
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Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national
economy
Protection and enhancement of sinks
Promote sustainable agriculture
Research and promote new and renewable energy
Phase out any incentives for ‘bad practice’
Encourage ‘good practices’
Cut GHG from aviation
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Kyoto Targets
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Industrialized countries will reduce their collective
emissions by 5.2% compared to the year 1990
 Note that compared to the emissions levels by 2010
without the Protocol, this target represents ~30%
cut).
 Calculated as an average
– over the five-year period of 2008-12.
 Target includes six greenhouse gases - carbon
dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, sulfur hexafluoride,
HFCs, and PFCs
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 HFC - Hydrofluorocarbons
 PFC- perfluorocarbon, a powerful
greenhouse gas emitted during the production
of aluminumPFC
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Kyoto Targets
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 National targets
– European Union - 8% below 1990 levels
– USA - 7% below 1990
– Japan - 6% below 1990
– Russia 0% (stay at 1990 levels)
– Australia 8% over 1990 levels)
– Developing countries (no target)
 China, India etc.
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Kyoto Targets: Developing countries
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The UN Framework on Climate has agreed:
1. The largest share of historical and current global
emissions of greenhouse gases
– has originated in developed countries;
2. Per capita emissions in developing countries
– are still relatively low;
3. The share of global emissions originating in
developing countries
– will grow to meet their social and development
needs.
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The Kyoto Mechanisms
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 Under the Treaty, countries must meet their targets
primarily through national measures. However, the
Kyoto Protocol offers them an additional means of
meeting their targets by way of three market-based
mechanisms.
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The Kyoto mechanisms are:
Emissions trading – known as “the carbon market"
Clean development mechanism (CDM)
Joint implementation (JI).
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Kyoto Protocol Mechanisms
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
Keep to assigned amounts of GHG with overall worldwide
reduction by at least 5% below 1990 levels by 2008-2012

Countries can meet their commitments together

Joint implementation -Countries can work together to meet
their emission reduction targets.

Richer (annex 1) countries can help developing countries to
achieve sustainable development and limit GHG increases
and then claim some emission reductions for their own targets

Emissions trading - countries can trade in ‘emission units’
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Emissions Trading
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Each country has an emission limit.
If this country cannot meet it’s target, it may purchase
carbon credits from other countries (on the open
market) who are under their limit.
This financially rewards countries that meet their
targets.
Countries also receive carbon credits through
– clean energy programs (i.e. greentags)
– carbon dioxide sinks (i.e. forests, oceans)
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Main reasons the US did not sign the Kyoto Protocol?
Economic burden
No limits on developing countries (i.e. China, India)
Protocol is not going to help much
"We will not do anything that harms our economy, because first
things first are the people who live in America"
- President Bush
Video for global warming debate
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 http://www.met.sjsu.edu/metr112videos/MET%20112%20Video%20LibraryMP4/climate%20feedback/
 Moyers-1.mp4
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Jim Hansen: Obama's Second Chance on the
Predominant Moral Issue of This Century
 http://www.huffingtonpost
.com/dr-jameshansen/obamas-secondchance-onc_b_525567.html
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Member of
National Academy of Science
NASA GISS Director
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Al Gore’s New Book
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 http://www.costcoconnection.com/connection/2
00911#pg27
“Several problems, one solution”
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Solutions - government
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Kyoto Protocol
California potential leader
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Solutions - personal
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Transportation
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Home
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Food

Consumption
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www.earthday.net : Top 10 Actions; Ecological Footprint
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Four R’s
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1. Rethink
2. Reduce
3. Reuse
4. Recycle
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 Climate Change lead
to:
– Sea levels
– Extreme heat
– Health impacts
– Water resource
– Agriculture and
vegetation
– etc
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Climate change and California
Average Temperature:
Winter - warmer winters - snowpack declines
by 70-90% by 2090
Summer – warmer summers (5-15F by 2090)
1. Coastal cities: coastal erosion by sea level
rise.
2. Human health: Urban air pollution/heat
extremes impact most vulnerable
3. Water resources: Total water, but early runoff
from Sierras costly to adapt.
4. Agriculture: Major challenge to various crops
industries.
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What is Heat Wave?
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 A heat wave is a prolonged period of excessively hot
weather
 may be accompanied by high humidity
 Definition recommended by WMO
The definition recommended by the World Meteorological
Organization is when the daily maximum temperature of
more than five consecutive days exceeds the average
maximum temperature by 5 °C (9 °F), the normal period
being 1961 - 1990.
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Class Participation
Your name_________
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 By 2050, which city has the longest heat wave days?
Why?
 What are the differences between the low emission
and high emission cases in terms of heat wave days by
2090 for city Riverside? How about city LA?
 How many people may die due to heat wave in SF in
2050 and 2090?
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