Transcript Mahaffy Martin - Sc..

Visualizing the Science of Climate
Change
Brian Martin
Peter Mahaffy
What do all of these
images have in
common?
Acknowledments
Jasper, Alberta
UN Decade for Education for Sustainable
Development (2005-2014)
• Improve the quality of life for this and
future generations, in a way that
respects the planet we live on.
• To do this we must learn constantly.
• Challenge individuals, institutions and
societies to view tomorrow as a day that
belongs to all of us, or it will not belong
to anyone.
Global Climate Change
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The atmosphere of our planet
What is climate & is it changing?
Causes of change
Short and long term effects
How do humans respond to uncertain
choices when the time scale is long?
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Exosphere
Thermosphere
Mesosphere
Stratosphere
Troposphere
Stratosphere
Troposphere
w clouds @ top
Different Regions of
Earth’s Atmosphere
Temperature Profile of Earth’s Atmosphere
• Temperature of atmosphere controlled by 4
factors
– Absorption of energy from the sun.
– Heat production in interior of the earth.
– Loss of energy by emission from the earth as a
blackbody radiator.
– Chemistry and photochemistry also play a role –
especially:
• Infrared absorption by gases in troposphere
• Oxygen / ozone photochemistry in
stratosphere
Global Climate Change
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The atmosphere of our planet
What is climate & is it changing?
Causes of change
Short and long term effects
How do humans respond to uncertain
choices when the time scale is long?
What is ‘Climate’?
•Climate is ‘average weather’
- and its variability
- for a particular region
- over a period of time
•Includes many different elements
(Environment Canada – Edmonton)
What is ‘climate change’?
• Climate change is a shift in ‘climate’ relative to a
given reference time period
• It is caused by:
Natural factors
- Solar variability
- Volcanic dust levels
- Internal variability
- Geological change
Human factors
- Greenhouse gases
- Aerosols
- Ozone depletion
- Land use change
(Environment Canada – Edmonton)
Climate Change – A New Idea?
• 1827: Fourier – theorized that greenhouse
gases warm the planet
• 1896: Arrhenius - proposed that changes in
atmospheric CO2 concentrations due to volcanic eruptions
and the combustion of coal can cause climate change
• 1938: Callendar – first noted that human emissions of
CO2 may add significantly to natural concentrations in the
atmosphere
• 1957: Revelle et al. – first warned that human
emissions have started a global scale geophysical
experiment and initiated an atmospheric CO2 concentration
monitoring program
Environment Canada
Is Climate Changing?
Focus First on Mean Global
Surface Temperature
“Humanity is conducting an unintended,
uncontrolled, globally pervasive
experiment whose ultimate
consequences could be second only to a
global nuclear war.”
World Conference on
The Changing Atmosphere:
Toronto, June 1988
Chemistry in Context
WHO – from International Panel on Climate Change
Global Climate Change
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•
•
•
•
The atmosphere of our planet
What is climate & is it changing?
Causes of change
Short and long term effects
How do humans respond to uncertain
choices when the time scale is long?
How is Heat Trapped?
Chemistry In Context
Wavelength Distribution of Solar Radiation
Chemistry in Context
?
6000 K
255 K
Wavelength Distribution (non-linear scale)
Interaction of Electromagnetic
Radiation with Molecules
Key Players - A Closer Look
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Carbon Dioxide
Methane
Nitrous Oxide
CFCs and HCFCs
Water !
Aerosols
Solar activity
Carbon Dioxide – Mechanism for
Tropospheric Warming ?
Carbon Dioxide Concentration Trends
Source: OSTP
Chemistry in Context
[CO2] and Temperature – Correlation?
Per capita CO2 emissions – Global
Wikimedia Commons
Photomicrograph of calcareous ooze
www.soc.soton.ac.uk/.../photomicrographs/ BNFC-44PB_full.jpg
Methane by Sector (Canada - 1997)
Methane by Sector - Canada
2%
24%
42%
5%
20%
7% Residence time -12 years
Global Warming Potential - 23
Energy Industry
Energy Other
Agriculture - Enteric Fermentation
Agriculture -Manure Management
Waste
Other
Clathrates (methane
hydrates) - Runaway
Greenhouse Effect?
Geomar Research Centre
Nitrous
Oxide
(N
O)
by
Sector
Canada
2
Nitrous Oxide (N2O) by Sector
(Canada - 1997)
8%
3%
20%
Energy Total
19%
50%
Residence time - 120 years !
Global Warming Potential – 296 !
Industrial Processes
Agriculture -Soils
Agriculture -Manure
Management
Other
Harvey was a dentist,
But now his career is through,
'Cause what he thought was N2O
Was really NO2
CFCs, HCFCs, HFCs
“Super” Greenhouse Gases
100 year mass normalized global warming potential of 18,000
Relative to carbon dioxide
Terraform Mars with Super
Greenhouse Gases?
Proceedings of Natl Academy of
Sciences, Feb 2001
Aerosols
The Bottom Line?
The International Panel on Climate Change is
the principal source of sound advice on
climate change science
Cautious
1990
First Report
1992
1995
Second Report
1997
Increasing
Confidence
2001
Third Report
The IPCC progression in confidence
FAR: "Our judgment is that the size of [global]
warming is broadly consistent with predictions of
climate models but it is also of the same
magnitude as natural climate variability“
SAR: "The balance of evidence suggests a discernible
human influence on global climate.“
TAR: "There is new and stronger evidence that most
of the warming observed over the last 50 years is
attributable to human activities."
Joint statement by Academies of Science
from 17 other countries – May 2001
“The work of the…IPCC represents the
consensus of the international science
community on climate change science. We
recognize IPCC as the world’s most reliable
source of information…and endorse its
method of achieving this consensus.”
IPCC 3rd Assessment Report, 2001
Global Climate Change
•
•
•
•
•
The atmosphere of our planet
What is climate & is it changing?
Causes of change
Short and long term effects
How do humans respond to uncertain
choices when the time scale is long?
The IPCC Third Assessment Report
• The IPCC TAR (2001) was a peer-reviewed
publication, the result of the work of
hundreds of leading climate scientists and
modellers.
• A Special Report on Emissions Scenarios
(SRES) was also released, which
– Developed 4 major scenario families of possible
future emissions of the major greenhouse gases
(CO2, CH4, N2O, CFCs, HFCs, etc…)
• Our models use EdGCM – based on a NASA/
GISS Global Climate Model
Special Report on Emissions (SRES) Scenarios
Some glimpses at Global Climate
Change …
• Historical data
• Models run at TKUC
– Temperature
– Snow and Ice cover
– Precipitation
• What are Greenhouse gases and how do
they work?
– CFC-s
– CO2
• Can YOU do anything about this?
What is Science
Alberta Foundation?
• Not-for-profit raising science and
math awareness
• Celebrating 15 years in Alberta
• Foster enthusiasm and interest
• Nurture the development of
leaders and workers
Inspiring Minds. Changing Futures.
Science-In-A-Crate
• Curriculum specific programs
developed for educators by
educators with students, and
content experts
• Challenging, hands-on activities that
help make math relevant in our
everyday lives
• Activities that encourage students
to explore scientific understandings
from different perspectives
incorporating a variety of learning
styles
Inspiring Minds. Changing Futures.
Book A Crate
• On-line booking
• $25 for 3 week rental
• All materials
• Shipped to your door
• Picked up at your door
www.sciencealberta.org
Inspiring Minds. Changing Futures.
New Science 10 Crate
Energy Flow in Global Systems
Activity Specifics:
1.Visualization tool to explore past and future
climate change (laptop computer included)
2. Exploration of greenhouse gases and
mechanism of effects
3. Interactive, physical model to explore effects of
seasons on earth
Inspiring Minds. Changing Futures.
Activity Specifics (con’t)
4. Exploration of past climate and weather,
investigate ice cores and tree cores
5. Board game to explore carbon cycle, balance
between sinks and sources
6. Differences between effects of UV depletion
and increases in greenhouse gases
7. Explore and manipulate effects of climate change on
biomes and distribution of organisms
Inspiring Minds. Changing Futures.
“View tomorrow as a
day that belongs to all
of us, or it will not
belong to anyone…”
UN Decade for Education
for Sustainable
Development
Chemistry in Context
Kilimanjaro
1912
2001 - 82 % of ice field gone
Snow cover gone by2015?
What Industry is Most Concerned
About Climate Change?
Connections? - Ozone depletion
& Climate Change
Ozone Depletion
Climate Change
• Stratosphere
• UV region of
spectrum
• Cl atom chemistry
• Ozone hole a
separate
phenomenon
• Troposphere
• IR region of
spectrum
• Various
“greenhouse gases”
Connections?
Ozone Depletion / Climate Change
• Some potent ozone depletors (CFCs,
HCFCs, HFCs) are also potent greenhouse
gases because they absorb in the “window”
and are long lived.
• Ironically, an increase in greenhouse gases
is predicted to cause a cooling of the
stratosphere, slowing down the O3
depleting reactions...
Global Climate Change
•
•
•
•
•
The atmosphere of our planet
What is climate & is it changing?
Causes of change
Short and long term effects
How do humans respond to uncertain
choices when the time scale is long?
Range of IPCC Model Predictions
FROG SOUP?
“If you were unkind enough to put a
frog into boiling water, he would jump
out if able to do so. If you were to put
him into cold water and then gradually
heat up the water, you would end up
with frog soup.”
Sir Crispin Tickell, Ambassador to the UN from
Great Britain
100th Anniversary of Nobel Prize
100 Nobel Laureates Speak Out...
• “The most profound danger to world peace in the
coming years will stem not from the irrational acts
of states or individuals but from the legitimate
demands of the worlds dispossessed. Of these
poor and disenfranchised, the majority live a
marginal existence in equatorial climates. Global
warming, not of their making but originating with
the wealthy few, will affect their fragile economies
most. Their situation will be desperate and
manifestly unjust.
• It cannot be expected, therefore, that in all cases
they will be content to await the beneficence of
the rich. If then we permit the devastating power
of modern weaponry to spread through this
combustible human landscape, we invite a
conflagration that can engulf both rich and poor.
The only hope for the future lies in cooperative
international action, legitimized by democracy.
• It is time to turn our backs on the unilateral search
for security, in which we seek to shelter behind
walls. Instead, we must persist in the quest for
united action to counter both global warming and a
weaponized world.”
Precautionary Principle?
“Maybe we should take the example
of the Iroquois Nation, who require
its tribal councils to formally consider
the impact of their decisions to the
seventh generation into the future, or
about 150 years. This is about the
residence time of carbon dioxide in
the atmosphere.” Shayne Janzen, King’s
student - Brief to Climate Change Central
Effect of Doubling CO2
Doubling CO2
in 1960
Control
Global Surface Air Temperature
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1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Sunspot Numbers – NASA MSFC
The IPCC process for providing science advice
• Selection of lead authors
– based on internationally recognized expertise
• Assessment based on published literature
– invited contributions from other experts
• Contents peer reviewed twice
– Second draft also reviewed by governments
• Final contents are responsibility of lead authors
– accepted (not approved) by IPCC
• SPM developed and
approved collaboratively
by IPCC and lead authors
• 2001 WGI report
involved 1078 experts